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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

Thor said:
The 80 doesn't matter as much for NC it has slowly moved NNW this afternoon. The latitude gain is more of the concern for NC. The most dangerous solution is the NAM. But the way it gets there is a bit wobbly. Obviously if it gets to 32 degrees latitude that's going to be tough to miss land, but it seems like there's multiple avenues to landfall somewhere in NC. 
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Yeah, it looks like it could turn before then, but if it goes more north than a sharp NE turn, it looks like it could still hit NC.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Yeah, it looks like it could turn before then, but if it goes more north than a sharp NE turn, it looks like it could still hit NC.
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Its gonna hit SC and NC the thing is not some tiny point, hell its already hitting SC, and its been hitting Fl/GA all day. There is going to be widespread hurricane force wind gust all over eastern SC tomorrow even if the center stays 50 miles off the coast. Its also going to hit NC whether the center comes onshore or not.
 
May have to change the thread title again very soon. Maybe they'll hold off until 11 (i think they are doing hourly now)
 
Downeastnc said:
Probably want to see him sustain it for a bit .....if that north side fills in it could be off to the races
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Thankfully ships diagnostics do not look very good for rapid intensification. :D
 
Downeastnc said:
LOL yeah its a good thing intensity forecasting is so reliable huh :)
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Looks like early cycle 00z hurricane modeling want to keep her around high end cat 2 to weaker cat 3. hopefully they're correct this time around.
 
Downeastnc said:
Its gonna hit SC and NC the thing is not some tiny point, hell its already hitting SC, and its been hitting Fl/GA all day. There is going to be widespread hurricane force wind gust all over eastern SC tomorrow even if the center stays 50 miles off the coast. Its also going to hit NC whether the center comes onshore or not.
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That's why the always say don't focus on an exact point.... this storm is growing in size and strength, it gonna be a mess on the coast
 
Shawn said:
Looks like early cycle 00z hurricane modeling want to keep her around high end cat 2 to weaker cat 3. hopefully they're correct this time around.
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A storm that strong on the Euro 18Z track would be not so good for me, I enjoy a good Cat 1 every few years, but I dont need the center of a 120 mph Cat 3 40 miles to my east....of course if it happens I will be out getting video....
 
For the first time, there was at 9PM a decrease in longitude of the center: 79.7 W vs 79.8 for several hours before. Let’s see if this means an earlier than forecast turn to the NNE is commencing. For now I assume this was just a right wobble.
To follow where this is in relation to CHS, keep in mind CHS is at 79.9 W. So, the center has yet to quite make it to CHS longitude and may never do so.
 
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A little surprised with the shifts of the EPS from run to run. This is last 5 runs with the latest 18z.

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KyloG said:
A little surprised with the shifts of the EPS from run to run. This is last 5 runs with the latest 18z.

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Does not exactly fill me with confidence in any of its solutions, though the Ukie/Icon/Nam's have all been pretty much the same for a day or two now and every once in a while the Euro agrees with them....like just now with the 18Z and 00Z last night
 
KyloG said:
A little surprised with the shifts of the EPS from run to run. This is last 5 runs with the latest 18z.

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This shows that the main shifts were from 18Z yesterday to 6Z today. This also shows that the effect of those shifts were most important for GA/lower SC (lowering of risk) and that upper SC/NC weren’t affected all that much.
 
GaWx said:
This shows that the main shifts were from 18Z yesterday to 6Z today. This also shows that the effect of those shifts were most important for GA/lower SC and that upper SC/NC weren’t affected all that much.
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That, and the EPS is given way to much credit. The UK has been, by far, the most consistent run to run and the EPS finally matches up with it's showing.
 
KyloG said:
That, and the EPS is given way to much credit. The UK has been, by far, the most consistent run to run and the EPS finally matches up with it's showing.
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I would give a shout out to the ICON too its been within 20 miles of itself for like 2-3 days now it seems at least in NC....
 
https://www.augustachronicle.com/ne...cuees-to-augusta-school-shelters?rssfeed=true

First I learned of an agreement that the county has with Chatham on evacuations. That's a good thing they've had going on as I'm pretty sure they've done it before in the recent years.

Savannah is pretty big but from that article and other things that I've seen, honestly more people than I would've thought with the forecast changing left the GA coast. Edit: At least to my area, although part of it is probably because it's close and if they come here, it's a very quick drive to get back to Savannah.
 
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Pressure in latest center drop was 956...about has the center totally wrapped in deep storms cooling tops spreading out as well....
 
Look at the eye smoothing out and the colder cloud tops wrapping around and expanding...I mean damn maybe he does make a run at 130 mph
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
https://www.augustachronicle.com/ne...cuees-to-augusta-school-shelters?rssfeed=true

First I learned of an agreement that the county has with Chatham on evacuations. That's a good thing they've had going on as I'm pretty sure they've done it before in the recent years.

Savannah is pretty big but from that article and other things that I've seen, honestly more people than I would've thought with the forecast changing left the GA coast. Edit: At least to my area, although part of it is probably because it's close and if they come here, it's a very quick drive to get back to Savannah.
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Keep in mind that the vast majority of folks are pretty clueless about wx in comparison to us. So, they’re not as aware of the forecast changes.
 
Stout winds on the nam late tomorrow evening
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Nice wobble NE atm probably a result of that very deep convection wrapping around, as it does so let's see of it wobbles back north or this is a definitive direction change
 
SD said:
3k goes east and lines up pretty solid with the 12k now

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Yeah it also matches pretty well with the last runs of the Ukie/Icon/Euro/ GFS Legacy ( GFS still offshore) so at this point I really got to feel like 50 miles either side of a line from MHX to Nags Head is where its going to go unless there is a major shift at 00Z.....
 
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