BHS1975
Member
Yeah if you’re gonna get a record breaker that area of the Atlantic around the Bahamas and the keys is the place to make it happen.
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Tropical Hurricane Dorian
- Thread starter RBR71
- Start date
Yeah if you’re gonna get a record breaker that area of the Atlantic around the Bahamas and the keys is the place to make it happen.
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pcbjr
Member
It hasn't been a good storm to try ...
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Check out the map Ryan Maue shared, 18z HiRes Euro showing all the wobbles also it's almost dead on, Dorian might be a smidge south atm
Henry2326
Member
Two observations regarding Charleston:
HRWF shows the eye directly over the Charleston bay at 6:00 pm Friday. HIGH TIDE IS 3:00 pm ON FRIDAY. This could be a serious situation. The flooding would be overwhelming. Go to cat2/cat3 surge maps.
HRWF SAYS 6:00 pm Friday. NHC chart says 2:00 pm Thursday just north of that position. 28 hours difference.........I have no idea...
HRWF shows the eye directly over the Charleston bay at 6:00 pm Friday. HIGH TIDE IS 3:00 pm ON FRIDAY. This could be a serious situation. The flooding would be overwhelming. Go to cat2/cat3 surge maps.
HRWF SAYS 6:00 pm Friday. NHC chart says 2:00 pm Thursday just north of that position. 28 hours difference.........I have no idea...
pcbjr
Member
Gonna try this one more time and hope this is the right layer ...
If so ... a little ways to go before north ...
If so ... a little ways to go before north ...
farleydawg792
Member
Little wobble to the WSW... direct path to freeport. Lets pray for FLA that the turn happens soon, or I just don't see it "hugging."
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=05L&product=ir
Great IR Loop.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=05L&product=ir
Great IR Loop.
Right now I’m thinking that Tonight and part of tomorrow will be very critical for how far West Dorian Gets. We are really in a now cast situation which you guys have done an awesome job analyzing Dorian so far. Where the speed of Dorian and how long the high lasts will be extremely critical at this point in time. I think by tomorrow evening we will know if Dorian will hit Florida and or Georgia and how west he will get. Right now whether NC or SC will get anything is still up in the Air until at least Wednesday or maybe earlier. Until then we really need to monitor the development of the Low responsible for bringing Dorian OTS on the models. We also need to pay attention to how strong the GOM and the Atlantic ULH.
Sorry Phil wrong layer.... this one is correct and you can see the stirring currents have collapsed, why it's slowing down
9 PM update, still 185 mph and still 5 mph west
pcbjr
Member
Sh•† ... oh well and ...
Thanks for posting. Wow, this says it all and shows folks why Dorian can, indeed, slow down, nearly stall, and then take a sharp right turn. But we still need to make sure he will stall before FL!!
Levi has made a new video:
Downeastnc
Member
Timing wise for SC/NC is closer than I realized.....if the GFS is right then the center will be close enough to bring hurricane conditions on shore around Myrtle over to ILM by 9 am Thur morning...thats 3.5 days from now....the Euro is slower by a good 12 hrs though, still by this time tomorrow if the models still show a landfall in NC it will be inside of 60 hrs.....
pcbjr
Member
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Definitely trending west and a tighter cluster.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
That's getting close. I think we trend toward the HWRF solution of a landfall on Cape Canaveral.
campamy
Member
Has anyone heard anything about Morgerman? His twitter hasn't been updated (obviously unable to).
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Pressure back down 2 mb from last pass. Hmmmm.
Crap
ForsythSnow
Moderator
I'm starting to think this wobble is more of a move than a wobble. Still moving just south of west and recon confirms this.
One more shift and my god Charleston SC a Coaster hugger.
Henry2326
Member
I agree....but the NHC has to make some timing changes to align. HWRF doesn't align in timing for Charleston, so probably downstream too. It has about a 28 hour difference.......
Henry2326
Member
I've been in the coast rider group for days now. Its quite devastating....
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Interesting from Levi. He thinks that the reason the HWRF keeps landfalling him near Canaveral is that it unlike the Euro and GFS is more coupled with the ocean. Because of this, the HWRF induces more cooling of the ocean due to upwelling from Dorian. That cooler water leads to more weakening than would otherwise be assumed. More weakening then makes the storm more shallow and thus brings the mean steering layer down just far enough to make the steering SE to NW rather than SSE to NNW thus pushing inland. So, ironically, a more quickly weakening storm from upwelling may actually be bad rather than good news for central and NE FL, including @pcbjr, because more quickly weakening doesn’t mean it wouldn’t still be a very strong storm (probably still cat 3+) since it is so insanely strong now. Sorry, Phil, don’t shoot the messenger.
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Exactly
Zooming in...looks like a bunch of members for GA-NC. Let’s hope for a east shift tomorrow.
Yeah looking at the IR sat over the past several hours it looks like a slightly WSW track
Looks like Dorian's eye is gonna travel the length of Grand Bahama.
farleydawg792
Member
BHS1975
Member
Interesting that all of the outliers almost shift to the west side of the envelope and the eastern side tightens up.
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Henry2326
Member
Great video....much better understanding of HWRF.
