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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

GaWx said:
At some point during the slowdown, especially when it comes close to stalling, I expect a marked drop in strength due to significant cooling of SSTs all around the storm. Maybe this is just the start of a nice weakening trend. We’ll see.
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I dont unless dry air gets in via ERC or shear picks up. It will have a steady supply of warm water pumped in while over some of the deepest warm water in the Atlantic. It wont regain the strength it is now, but it will be hard to get it below Cat 4 for a while.

h20_aQG3_latest_natl.gif
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Not that I would evacuate Charlestown, but if I did, I don’t think you would have to go that far west to be in the clear! Like a trip to Bojangles or something for half the day outside of town. The storm will be moving much quicker north east by then.
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From I-26 you are forced to Columbia (90-120 minutes away. There really isn't a lot between here and there besides Orangeburg and it's always at least a couple of days before they re-open the freeway.
 
pcbjr said:
I am 1000% confused ... That says 200 - 700 <940 which is exactly what every map I posted said (or so I think).
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Phil,
The first map you posted today was as I recall for <940 mb. But the last two were for 1000-1010 mb. I’m not sure why they are doing that.
 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 77.6W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM E OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...915 MB...27.02 INCHES
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Arcc said:
I dont unless dry air gets in via ERC or shear picks up. It will have a steady supply of warm water pumped in while over some of the deepest warm water in the Atlantic. It wont regain the strength it is now, but it will be hard to get it below Cat 4 for a while.

h20_aQG3_latest_natl.gif
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I can see it taking quite awhile to get below cat 4 with it being 55 mph stronger than the start of cat 4. So, I agree it should at least maintain 4+ for quite awhile if it stays over water. It should stay a major for at least a couple of more days if he avoids land.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Is the storm just wobbling to the south or is it now moving just south of west? I'm guessing wobble but not a good direction to wobble.
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Thought is was a wobble but last few frames look just s of due west and about to plow into Grand Bahama
 
This storm is extremely powerful and long tracking. We’ve been tracking this for over a week, it’s been spinning for a very long time. Even if it does weaken a little, it will still be a very intense storm. On another note, should inland/piedmont N.C. prepare or are we in the clear?
 
KyloG said:
Yep...trends for todays runs.

View attachment 22813
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Looks subtle if you just look at Dorian and you know this.... look at the bigger picture, stands out like a sore thumb, trend is flatter trough and stronger Atlantic ridge. No bueno
 
KyloG said:
Yep...trends for todays runs.

View attachment 22813
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That’s a little disconcerting but not enough to make me feel overly worried at least right now. If I lived in CHS, this would be getting my worry meter up quite a bit. Even without this, I was already getting a bit more concerned about CHS. SAV has a big advantage with tracks like this vs CHS thanks to the more protective geography.
 
If I were on the water in Charleston I'd leave, anywhere else in the area and I'd watch radar trends closely through tomorrow and if Dorian somehow ends up south of Freeport or gets past before throwing up the brakes I'd also leave (and if that happens, parts of Florida are in trouble to boot).

Some of the issue in these low lying cities isn't even hurricane conditions. It's storm surge. They've also called for evacuations around St Augustine too.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Is the storm just wobbling to the south or is it now moving just south of west? I'm guessing wobble but not a good direction to wobble.
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Trochoidal wobbling is normal though and it is way more noticeable at slower speeds and you will go crazy tracking every little wobble...

its gained latitude all day though it has wobbled Sw decently in the last 2-3 hrs that is just temporary though...its gonna go back WNW then eventually more NW tomorrow...

Ruun this loop is shows it nicely

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-13-200-0-100-12&checked=map&colorbar=data
 
I just don't feel comfortable with thinking Dorian is just going to stop right before it gets to Florida and go straight north. What exactly is going to make it stop and go north?
 
Charleston and surrounding areas should leave by Tuesday. It’s not the winds it’s the water and that whole Charleston area floods very easily, imagine how it will look once Dorian rolls by
 
Brick Tamland said:
I just don't feel comfortable with thinking Dorian is just going to stop right before it gets to Florida and go straight north. What exactly is going to make it stop and go north?
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Steering currents are never static. The high is weakening and has already lead to it slowing.
 
KyloG said:
Yep...trends for todays runs.

View attachment 22813
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That height line thumbing in over top and trying to bridge with the ridge across the conus along with the expanding and slightly west ridge near Bermuda makes me uneasy. That's a good recipe for taking a good portion of the easterly component out of the movement and getting the center inland

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SD said:
That height line thumbing in over top and trying to bridge with the ridge across the conus along with the expanding and slightly west ridge near Bermuda makes me uneasy. That's a good recipe for taking a good portion of the easterly component out of the movement and getting the center inland

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Yeap ridges have been over-performing for the last few years it seems and so have canes.


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SD said:
That height line thumbing in over top and trying to bridge with the ridge across the conus along with the expanding and slightly west ridge near Bermuda makes me uneasy. That's a good recipe for taking a good portion of the easterly component out of the movement and getting the center inland

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So inland N.C. should keep an eye on this?
 
Brick Tamland said:
I just don't feel comfortable with thinking Dorian is just going to stop right before it gets to Florida and go straight north. What exactly is going to make it stop and go north?
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Are you wanting the majority of global models to fail in the year 2019? It’s not gonna happen there is very decent agreement but still dangerously close to the coast or east.
 
SD said:
That height line thumbing in over top and trying to bridge with the ridge across the conus along with the expanding and slightly west ridge near Bermuda makes me uneasy. That's a good recipe for taking a good portion of the easterly component out of the movement and getting the center inland

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Everything today is making me uneasy. A lot more factors and the west trend with the models today point to Dorian making landfall. I hope the NHC is right about the recurve, but I am not sold on that happening.
 
I was off by 5. I was just guessing by how beastly canes have gotten these last few years.


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BirdManDoomW said:
Are you wanting the majority of global models to fail in the year 2019? It’s not gonna happen there is very decent agreement but still dangerously close to the coast or east.
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I said the same thing in December when they had a foot of snow here

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Cadi40 said:
So inland N.C. should keep an eye on this?
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Certainly should along and east of US1. Back toward the 85 corridor it's worth keeping an eye on but it would take a pretty significant shift to get anything of concern in that area

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BHS1975 said:
Whoops.


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ForsythSnow said:
Whoops indeed. It missed 190 by a hair though. This was 4 days ago though.
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Dont feel bad when it first formed someone said it would top Irma and i laughed and said no way lol

Or when we laughed at the NAM showing 906 mb near the Bahamas 3 days ago

It hasnt been a good storm to try and forecast
 
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