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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

Euro is either a big bust. Or either still the king. But really I thought ever since the center went north of Porto Rico a out to sea track was a possibility


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What a change in the models the last 24 hours. Yesterday we were looking at Dorian hitting Florida and going across into the Gulf, and tonight the models continue to trend east and Dorian might go out to sea.
 
pcbjr said:
Y'all should really watch Levi's video posted above (link here also) ...
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Yes please watch
But for the people who aren’t gonna watch he pretty much explains the even the slightest changes in ridging could easily change the track and that nobody knows where this will go
 
Brick Tamland said:
What a change in the models the last 24 hours. Yesterday we were looking at Dorian hitting Florida and going across into the Gulf, and tonight the models continue to trend east and Dorian might go out to sea.
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Brick,
There are so many subtleties; the models are just models and are individually having a hard time dealing with some very little things ... been that way for days; probably real consensus in 36 but until then, it's still wait and watch, I'm afraid ... Phil
 
pcbjr said:
Y'all should really watch Levi's video posted above (link here also) ...
Click to expand...


The biggest takeaway of what he said in this video was how forecasting a hurricane landfall at day 4-5 leads has on average a 200 mile error. I already knew that, but it's worth remembering. That's why my confidence in an OTS scenario is just as low as any other scenario at this point. So many moving parts causing so many subtle changes.
 
Weatherlover92 said:
The biggest takeaway of what he said in this video was how forecasting a hurricane landfall at day 4-5 leads has on average a 200 mile error. I already knew that, but it's worth remembering. That's why my confidence in an OTS scenario is just as low as any other scenario at this point. So many moving parts causing so many subtle changes.
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Been saying that since my 1st in 1964 ...
 
Correct me if I’m wrong but Katrina was supposed to be a Big Bend Hurricane and quickly became a MS/LA issue so I still got this funny feeling to not count out the Panhandle/areas my way, still so much that could change in just a few days. Like I said last night, while models are a good guideline, a few days ago it had Dorian being dead by no means is any solution gaining or losing momentum.
 
After watching Levi’s video I truly do feel for the forecasters at the NHC. It’s not just a ridge, there’s so many variables in this forecast that have huge implications with even the slightest change. Because of the shape of the SE coastline, a simple mistake in the strength/weakness in the variables is the difference between a devastating landfall in Florida, a landfall near SC/NC, or an OTS track. This is not a simple track and a shift of 20 miles east or west could be all the difference.
 
Weatherlover92 said:
The biggest takeaway of what he said in this video was how forecasting a hurricane landfall at day 4-5 leads has on average a 200 mile error. I already knew that, but it's worth remembering. That's why my confidence in an OTS scenario is just as low as any other scenario at this point. So many moving parts causing so many subtle changes.
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Adding to you comment about 200 mile error, he says the difference in the models is a 50 mile difference of on versus off shore. This is too subtle for the models to forecast.
 
Cadi40 said:
After watching Levi’s video I truly do feel for the forecasters at the NHC. It’s not just a ridge, there’s so many variables in this forecast that have huge implications with even the slightest change. Because of the shape of the SE coastline, a simple mistake in the strength/weakness in the variables is the difference between a devastating landfall in Florida, a landfall near SC/NC, or an OTS track. This is not a simple track and a shift of 20 miles east or west could be all the difference.
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that's why I spent another $250.00 today ... to be ready for 10 days of no power if need be (done that show a few times and I hate the re-runs) ...
 
deltadog03 said:
Pretty clear on where the short term movement is going to be. It's on that heading now. Next 24-36 hours movement super critical.
View attachment 22533
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One of the best tools going ... see the little bowling alley? Problem is, it's fluid, but watch the alley every few hours and you've got a pretty good notion of "what" ...
 
I took away something else from Levi’s video. Levi pointed out the variables on the field play a certain role *when* the hurricane arrives. AKA...a stall or erratic movement throws everything off on where the trough and ridge will be and their respective strengths or weakness. Hurricane forward speed or lack of is and already has played a major role into why things are changing. No one wants this thing to be left behind as a CAT 5 and drift west.
 
Jessy89 said:
I wonder what it be like to fly a kite in the eye wall right about now.
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See Hurricane Michael Youtube video in Florida of being in the eye on land. Gives a good idea of flying a kite in the calm then into a eye-wall.
 
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