Tropical Hurricane Dorian

[pcbjr]

So kind of a dumb question, what's stopping this storm from becoming way stronger than modeled since PR and Hispaniola are no longer factors? That's my biggest fear with Dorian at the moment.

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Not being flippant (and certainly not a "dumb question") ... Nothing is stopping it from getting stronger, or weakening. It's in a good environment, but it really depends now on what track it takes. Central FL would weaken it, if it crosses and gets into the Gulf; then we'd be left to see what remains and if it shot NW or N; the east coast would weaken it if it ran the entire intracoastal; the Gulf would ramp it if it crossed the 'Glades or south of there ... so bottom line ... there is no bottom line yet ...

 

[CyclonicFury]

68 kt SFMR in the SE quad. It's going to be interesting to see how strong the winds are in the NE quad.

 

[Arcc]

No mincing words, this image shows what Webb has been saying about outflow also within a very deep moisture envelope. This one is a Cat5 landfall threat in South/Central FL.

 

[Snowfan]

 

[Brent]

HWRF on Saturday

 

[pcbjr]

No mincing words, this image shows what Webb has been saying about outflow also within a very deep moisture envelope. This one is a Cat5 landfall threat in South/Central FL.

"Like" for the data, not the message ...

 

[Zander98al]

HWRF on Saturday

View attachment 22236

That Looks like a category 4 or 5 ?. Hopefully people will take the threat seriously

 

[Weatherlover92]

18z HMON is back to a strong Cat. 1(borderline Cat. 2) hurricane approaching the East/Central FL coastline at hr 99 after that weird 12z run of weakening it to a TS.

 

[pcbjr]

HWRF on Saturday

View attachment 22236

Brent, can you run that out and post a few more frames? Seems like it might be of some benefit.

 

[Weatherlover92]

That Looks like a category 4 or 5 ?. Hopefully people will take the threat seriously

That's a strong Cat. 5 hurricane assuming the Google knots to mph conversion I did is accurate. Dorian is at 151.5 kts which is roughly 175mph.

 

[Brent]

Brent, can you run that out and post a few more frames? Seems like it might be of some benefit.

I will post as it loads, it takes a bit

 

[Snowfan]

 

[Henry2326]

That GFS run could have easily been a Carolina landfall with subtle changes based on how the coast is shaped and it wanting to go due north and stall. Interesting to see if the members show that or out to sea. I’m favoring the EURO right now tho.

Amen.....thought the same thing. Subtle changes that the models don't handle very well.

 

[Brent]

Could be a 5 here

 

[Henry2326]

That takes your breath away...

 

[Snowfan]

HWRF is down to 918 mb.

 

[Brent]

918 mb would be getting up there on the list

 

[Weatherlover92]

18z HMON has Dorian making landfall between Vero Beach and Palm Bay, FL as a borderline Cat. 1 hurricane.

 

[Webberweather53]

HWRF is down to 918 mb.

Can't wait to see a 700mb cane on the 3km NAM in a few days

 

[ForsythSnow]

HWRF does show a cat 5 approaching Florida. 137 knots is a cat 5 and it peaks at 142.