Looks like it ate a little bit of dry air in the SW eyewall may keep it at bay for a time
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Tropical Hurricane Dorian
- Thread starter Metwannabe
- Start date
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Not liking the strengthening despite the ragged IR appearance.
accu35
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Me to
ForsythSnow
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It's not easy to get have a global model reflect the system given the grid spacing and the relatively steep pressure gradient in the system.
If you put the small center at the exact pressure you would probably end up with a micro cane that tried to fit the entire storm in one grid square or a system that was larger than reality as it tried to space the pressure fields
Unfortunately when you try to use a single point on a 9-12km grid square you are going to have issues. It's why you see much more widespread green on the models during the summer when you only get scattered storms
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pcbjr
Member
What do you expect when every person in the SE wants to download every increment and post it somewhere, without comment or explanation ....
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Yeah that means it's fighting to intensify. When the environment becomes favorable be on the lookout for it to jump a couple categories in 6 hours. It'll probably have an ERC then but still it's going to RI sooner or later. It definitely has a good core.
Thor
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accu35
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I expect what you expect lol. Brilliant minds think alike
pcbjr
Member
Absolutely horrible, and possible (though the southern solution makes more sense) ...
The GFS makes landfall as a Category 2 hurricane on the space coast and moves north into Georgia.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
If you're on PC, here's a reminder of another satellite view that has a lot more frames and can be run smoother, but isn't as fast as other sites.
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=1&im=60&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=30&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity[0]=1&hidden[0]=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=mesoscale_02&p[0]=band_13&x=640&y=953
You can also combine layers which I think is pretty cool.
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=1&im=60&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=30&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity[0]=1&hidden[0]=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=mesoscale_02&p[0]=band_13&x=640&y=953
You can also combine layers which I think is pretty cool.
Gfs is slowly getting stronger with the ridge to the north. Its concerning for you though that it hasn't jumped more quickly into more of the euro cmc camp with a stronger ridge
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That GFS run could have easily been a Carolina landfall with subtle changes based on how the coast is shaped and it wanting to go due north and stall. Interesting to see if the members show that or out to sea. I’m favoring the EURO right now tho.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
