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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

ForsythSnow said:
Yep it wants to solidify its eye
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That's crazy. When I saw the eye wall collapse on radar I thought we were going to see this struggle a bit until the overnight. I guess not

Starting to get some lightning in the eyewall too.

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SD said:
That's crazy. When I saw the eye wall collapse on radar I thought we were going to see this struggle a bit until the overnight. I guess not

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Just wait for recon to get to the NE quadrant. The north end they were clocking up around 72 knots at the peak unflagged.
 
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Looks like the legacy gfs kind of splits the difference between the fv and euro

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So kind of a dumb question, what's stopping this storm from becoming way stronger than modeled since PR and Hispaniola are no longer factors? That's my biggest fear with Dorian at the moment.

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SimeonNC said:
So kind of a dumb question, what's stopping this storm from becoming way stronger than modeled since PR and Hispaniola are no longer factors? That's my biggest fear with Dorian at the moment.

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Dry air seems to be the big factor right now

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SimeonNC said:
So kind of a dumb question, what's stopping this storm from becoming way stronger than modeled since PR and Hispaniola are no longer factors? That's my biggest fear with Dorian at the moment.

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Right now dry air, long term nothing modeled. It will become dependant on ERCs.
 
I’m really hugging the euro. You notice that particular model has had not as big of swings. It’s been the most consistent so far.


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SD said:
Dry air seems to be the big factor right now

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Okay, though that isn't all that calming since even with dry air it managed to intensify so much in a short period of time. Hopefully dry air becomes a bigger and long term hinder for Dorian.

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SimeonNC said:
Okay, though that isn't all that calming since even with dry air it managed to intensify so much in a short period of time. Hopefully dry air becomes a bigger and long term hinder for Dorian.

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yeah with the big ones its usually either dry air or maybe unexpected shear, but usually the ERC's will be the main cause of up and down cycles, the timing can either help or hurt the coast and are impossible to predict

I should mention Michael was sheared and it didn't matter so even shear isn't a guarantee

sometimes(not always) when they get close to the US especially recurving they always get a gulp of dry air but it really just depends
 
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