18z HMON Dorian going Gulfbound after the center passes over Tampa, FL.
Members still much further west than the OP18z GEFS.
View attachment 22238
HWRF is down to 918 mb.
SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...19.2N 65.7W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM NNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES
Fortunately, though I don’t think it is as bad as the GFS Legacy, my memory tells me that most HWRF runs end up quite a bit too strong. So, despite the then expected highly favorable conditions, keep in mind that 918 mb is very likely and hopefully overdone. Of course, a 20 mb weaker storm would still be 938 mb, an extremely dangerous storm.
HOW SO PHIL??FWIW ... folks are going bananas in N C FL
The problem is it underforecasted the strength of Michael until the night before. The location of Dorian alone puts the ceiling higher and the possibility of a Cat 5 landfall than Michael.
Gas and ice are gone ... folks honking car horns like it's the 2nd coming ... Publix is like a zoo ... heck, all I wanted was a deli sammmichHOW SO PHIL??
It is MUCH further north than previous run.18z Navgem rides the coast from Jax to Savannah. Not pretty....