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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

its early and I wanna see a few more runs but I'm starting to get more encouraged about OTS solutions

now having said that, everytime I've tried to declare a trend its gone the other way lol
 
Brent said:
its early and I wanna see a few more runs but I'm starting to get more encouraged about OTS solutions

now having said that, everytime I've tried to declare a trend its gone the other way lol
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Got to believe the models are getting a better grip with all the data getting ingested now.
 
Brent said:
its early and I wanna see a few more runs but I'm starting to get more encouraged about OTS solutions

now having said that, everytime I've tried to declare a trend its gone the other way lol
Click to expand...

Same here, Ive got my mouth shut before I look even more clueless.
 
This is why I try to not put to much stock in anything over 3 days.....at this point I am fairly sure its gonna turn north rather suddenly, after that meh its probably gonna change a few times, how deep is the trough, does the storm get OTS in time before it gets blocked, is there some ULL that isnt modeled well in the 5-7 day range that is going to dive into the lower Miss Valley and capture it etc...
 
ummm:

1567223990555.png

based off this I almost think that we're about to see Dorian get pushed in at least somewhere in the Carolinas.

But this thread has 86 pages since this storm has been confusing.
 
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Makes you wonder by day 4 or 5 if Dorian gets shove more west and inland into north Florida Geo
deltadog03 said:
Turning back WNW at hr 90? Wth is going on
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Got to wonder that far out in time with a different solution it could truck west into north Florida/Georgia inland.
 
So the trough tried to capture Dorian based off what I can tell, kinda did but might not have strongly enough and now we have the ridges building back in and leading to a southeast landfall anyway.
 
Didn’t see this coming. Legacy has a Cat 4 landfall around Myrtle/Wilmington
cf8f9a6a55052e6f8f850aafd5610811.jpg



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Yep this run just absolutely smokes the SC coast.

Oh, and to add to the confusion, Dorian is heading due west apparently based off what I saw on another forum, if that continues for long, then that just throws another wrench in things.

Would've most certainly been nice to have the recon in that puts information in for the 0z suite as it seems needed badly.
 
Ollie Williams said:
Didn’t see this coming. Legacy has a Cat 4 landfall around Myrtle/Wilmington



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Click to expand...

Yeah thats the worse run so far for MBY...big take away for this run of both GFS's is faster. Going to still be some monster rainfall totals in central and eastern NC as well...
 
Interesting....so UKmet goes to Euro previous look and GFS goes to Ukmet previous look. What's the Euro gonna do....and....caution. We had close to consensus in the past week only for the storm to do something we didn't expect. I can't yet believe it's not going to happen again. Heck. It happened today.
 
I'm going to try and be tactful the way I say this... I'm not sure if we are going to know what the storm will end up doing until it's basically knocking on the door, maybe after.

There are a lot of factors and this is not a good situation to be in for a lot of people who need to prepare.

Edit: For example, I was just in a game streamer's channel from Twitch who is in Florida and his chat was telling him it's okay, the models are sending it away from Florida. No joke.
 
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