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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

ForsythSnow said:
Seems to me Dorian is realigning the moisture in it to more evenly distribute it around the eye. Definitely going to start intensifying when that completes. The eyewall is starting to shrink again. It likely expanded earlier due to some dry air.
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No doubt that eye is tightening up, gonna wake up in the morning to a blossoming monster I'm afraid... at this point prayer and EWRC only thing stopping it in the coming days
 
metwannabe said:
No doubt that eye is tightening up, gonna wake up in the morning to a blossoming monster I'm afraid... at this point prayer and EWRC only thing stopping it in the coming days
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Only issue with ERC's is that they make the storm larger and allow it to carry more energy. That's how we ended up with Irma. She had ERC after ERC in the right place. It seemed like every 6 to 12 hours a new one would occur.
 
metwannabe said:
Phil you need to come north, the north flank always has a space for those seeking refuge
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Been thinking very long and hard about Waynesville ... but roots are so deep it's almost impossible to move the tree ... plus, what would I do without a wife who refuses to leave, or Gator football ... (wife does much better for me than Gators, btw) ...
 
GaWx said:
I don’t disagree. I’m just talking about how the model does in general. It USUALLY is quite a bit too strong. And fortunately cat 5s are pretty rare since conditions have to be near ideal for strengthening.So, although I won’t bet the ranch against a cat 5 though I won’t bet on it either since they’re pretty rare. It probably wouldn’t need 918 mb to reach a 5. At this point, I’d bet on a cat 4 monster and hope it doesn’t reach 5. We’ll see.
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I agree. Ive learned to never bet on any strength as too much can happen. That said, this is one of the times that the HWRF cannot be discounted.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Only issue with ERC's is that they make the storm larger and allow it to carry more energy. That's how we ended up with Irma. She had ERC after ERC in the right place. It seemed like every 6 to 12 hours a new one would occur.
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Yeah but if they occur at the right time they can at least slow intensification and especially as it approaches land.... looking for the silver lining. Not only am I concerned for Phil (and all those in it's path) but I have family in Jax and the Panhandle of Fl
 
Looking forward to see if models continue with this SW trend, end up shifting NE again like last night or if they start to solidify themselves.
 
Another thing to note. It'll at least be 85 mph if not 90 at 11 pm with this drop saying 90 at the surface.
recon_NOAA2-1105A-DORIAN_dropsonde12_20190829-0001.png
 
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