Tropical Hurricane Dorian

[GaWx]

Note that the highest concentration of the strong nonrecurving members into FL of the 12Z EPS are those that move W or WSW toward S FL. Notice that those north of the black line are largely moving WNW and are weaker (green). That makes sense because those further south have a stronger ridge to the north thus providing more favorable conditions though I think the greens are too weak.

Related to this from Philippe Papin:
:

 

[ncskywarn]

When us recon due back ?

It's up now. has not reached the center yet though.

 

[ForsythSnow]

Eye starting to round off and clear up more.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Eye starting to round off and clear up more.

Looks like the eyewall is really starting to take shape, not as wobbly/raggedy/ugly , looks like it’s stabilizing

 

[stormcentral]

 

[Myfrotho704_]

That look it’s giving ?, maybe it’s trying to start RI ?

 

[pcbjr]

Related to this from Philippe Papin:
:

There are so many variables ... the jury is going to be asking for clarifying instructions all night long ...

 

[accu35]

Icon south again as expected

 

[Brent]

No words for this lol

 

[pcbjr]

No words for this lol

View attachment 22227

I do, but even George Carlin could not say them ...

 

[ncskywarn]

ICON is just a touch North but about 15 hours slower the 12Z run

 

[Arcc]

No words for this lol

View attachment 22227

Now that is messed up.

 

[ForsythSnow]

No words for this lol

View attachment 22227

I saw that on Ryan Maue's twitter. That's a triple landfall and a sunshine state shredder. Not realistic but that's what the Euro member spat out.

 

[jackendrickwx]

GFS initializing too high with pressure

 

[Myfrotho704_]

oop ? , but theres some dry air getting in there from the South

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Hey what was the cool website with infrared where you can track hurricanes and watch convection fire in the eyewall? I had a good one but I forgot what it was

 

[jackendrickwx]

Hey what was the cool website with infrared where you can track hurricanes and watch convection fire in the eyewall? I had a good one but I forgot what it was

Tidbits has IR

 

[pcbjr]

Well, Bastardi likes south FL and into the Gulf, headed towards the general vicinity of NO ... guess it's time to generally dismiss that scenario ... or not ...

 

[Arcc]

I saw that on Ryan Maue's twitter. That's a triple landfall and a sunshine state shredder. Not realistic but that's what the Euro member spat out.

Well that is the Mean so it’s very skewed which is why it’s kind of unrealistic.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Tidbits has IR

Cool. Found it. Thanks