Tropical Hurricane Dorian

[Philstorm91]

I hate to say it, but that is a classic looking upper level pattern for a big hit on the South East Coast. A strong hurricane moving westward underneath a ridge of high pressure to the North is about as classic is you one or maybe not want to see if you're in Florida in the South east

Yes, it's mainly the general upper air pattern that you describe that gives me a bad feeling about Dorian.

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[ForsythSnow]

Would this track IF right be a worst then Last year?


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I would have to say it's up in the air. The further south in FL it makes landfall, the stronger it'll be in the Gulf as it'll have more time. I doubt it'll be a cat 5 if it were to make it there like Michael was, but a major would be still bad.

 

[Ethan80963!]

 

[Ethan80963!]

Here's the GEFS members I don't think I saw them yet

Here's CMC ensembles

 

[Arcc]

I thought the models (some) were initializing it weaker which was causing a south tug. If its stronger than modeled won't it pull north? I don't know much about it, just trying to sort it out.....

For the short term, yes, but as we have been talking about for days that if it misses the islands and goes ballistic the outflow will pump the ridge to its north and get a farther west solution.

 

[BirdManDoomW]

Good to see a lot of out to sea members. But the threat stretches all the way back to Texas.

 

[ncskywarn]

Looks like the center is already North of PR while she is still a good 50+ miles still East of the island.

 

[Avalanche]

No land mass to speak of for a while with her.

 

[ncskywarn]

Looks like the G-IV is up again sampling the atmosphere around Dorian.

 

[Arcc]

Here's the GEFS members I don't think I saw them yet
View attachment 22217
Here's CMC ensembles
View attachment 22218

That isn’t good.

 

[Avalanche]

That isn’t good.

That first one hitting Miami/West Palm Beach and then New Orleans would be a large population to be impacted. You're right. That isn't good at all. The second one, may be the better solution, IDK.

 

[DopplerWx]

towers firing on the southern part of the eyewall now trying to close off as it heads north of PR.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/RadarArchive/TJUA/loop.html

 

[BirdManDoomW]

For real time weather video check out snapchat and slide over to the US Virgin Islands. Beautiful area despite the hurricane conditions. Lots of users uploading short clips of the storm.

 

[StoneMtnWx]

12z eps.

 

[pcbjr]

12z eps. View attachment 22221

can't and won't use certain 4 letter words, so read between the lines ... one of the biggest cluster f's I've seen in a long time ...

 

[ncskywarn]

towers firing on the southern part of the eyewall now trying to close off as it heads north of PR.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/RadarArchive/TJUA/loop.html

Here is another good radar site.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=JUA-N0Q-1-12#

 

[Pk91]

12z eps. View attachment 22221

What impact would that have on Tampa Bay

 

[pcbjr]

What impact would that have on Tampa Bay

Not being flippant ... 1st, by the time it got from wherever to Tampa, assuming it were an east coast landfall, you'd most likely have a high end TS or low end 'Cane, and Tampa is more than built for that; 2nd, depending on strength and if the COC were north or south of the Bay, you'd either see a lot of water going into the Gulf or the Hillsborough River getting way out of its banks ... in other words, too soon to tell.

 

[Rick]

When us recon due back ?

 

[MRStorm]

can't and won't use certain 4 letter words, so read between the lines ... one of the biggest cluster f's I've seen in a long time ...

Phil, it would be a haul form B'ham to your abode but if help becomes needed to prepare just shout out. I have PTO days and it's a long weekend. Otherwise know the prayers have already begun for all who could be impacted.