Tropical Hurricane Dorian

[Brick Tamland]

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The tracks continue to shift east and the intensity continues to increase. Still looks the majority of them have a landfall in Florida.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Certain. 1/3 hit and 2/3 miss FL. Give or take


View attachment 22490

Looks like at least half are closer to the coast or inland compared to the operational .. no clarity

 

[deltadog03]

What do you know the Euro is weakening its west atlantic ridge with time, I haven't seen that at all this summer

Ya I wanna see more consistent runs like that before I buy into it.

 

[Cadi40]

As a proud Publix associate I can confirm we accept returns!!

 

[Meteorologist1999]

The tracks continue to shift and the intensity continues to increase. Still looks the majority of them have a landfall in Florida.

Do we get a increase here in South Carolina?

 

[Cadi40]

I do find it extremely interesting how alike it looks to Hugo, it’s actually quite scary.

 

[KyloG]

Day 6

 

[Ser Pounce]

South Carolina gets a 'ask in 48 hours.'

 

[SD]

The tracks continue to shift east and the intensity continues to increase. Still looks the majority of them have a landfall in Florida.

Thing of it is, the more this trends east of Fl the more this can become a problem for us. Right now the trough interaction is perfect enough so that most models shift it SE of our area. Slow that trough down or deepen it in the plains and its well inland in NC

 

[GaWx]

Looks like bulk of EPS members will miss FL

View attachment 22487

The tracks continue to shift east and the intensity continues to increase. Still looks the majority of them have a landfall in Florida.

The bolded is not true. Many more miss FL to the east...maybe 2/3 of them.

 

[Arcc]

What do you know the Euro is weakening its west atlantic ridge with time, I haven't seen that at all this summer

And why cant we get a trough that trends deeper in winter.

 

[Brick Tamland]

The bolded is not true. Many more miss FL to the east...maybe 2/3 of them.

I wasn't talking about just the EPS. I was talking about all the models. I even quoted that in the reply.

 

[Brick Tamland]

Thing of it is, the more this trends east of Fl the more this can become a problem for us. Right now the trough interaction is perfect enough so that most models shift it SE of our area. Slow that trough down or deepen it in the plains and its well inland in NC

Oh, I know. That's why I said it is great news for Florida, but if it misses them and the track is just a bit off, it could be very bad for SC and NC.

 

[SnowNotHappen]

I think its time for GA SC and even NC to start getting ready to prepare...

 

[SD]

And why cant we get a trough that trends deeper in winter.

IDK man but the euro loves to pump the SE ridge in summer

 

[KyloG]

12z EPS.

 

[JaxHurricane12]

Going out on a limb and saying I really do think that this takes a similar path as Matthew. Gut feeling really, just feel like I've seen this before.

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

I wasn't talking about just the EPS. I was talking about all the models. I even quoted that in the reply.

What I find interesting is if you take a look at that chunk of models in SE GA. Appears a good number heading NW from there and no recurve to the NE. That’s new.

 

[KyloG]

That is impressive/scary to say the least.

 

[pcbjr]

So, anybody want to go out on a limb and tell me N C FL is out of the woods?

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Not buying the Euro at all. By the time it gets to Florida, it is already weaker modeled than it is right now in the present. I'm not buying anything till Sunday.

 

[NoSnowATL]

So, anybody want to go out on a limb and tell me N C FL is out of the woods?

NHC says no. TWC say no. They are kinda smart.


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[SD]

12z EPS.

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Thats amazing how the mean perfectly parallels the coast for hundreds of miles

 

[Myfrotho704_]

That is impressive/scary to say the least.

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Dang is that tropospheric gravity waves in that CDO ? Hard to tell

 

[SD]

What I find interesting is if you take a look at that chunk of models in SE GA. Appears a good number heading NW from there and no recurve to the NE. That’s new.

If I were north of the Fl/Ga line I would say that the concern still has to exist that this turns north before arriving at the FL coastline and makes a landfall farther north. Do I think that's likely? Not really, but it's not out of the realm of possibility right now

 

[DopplerWx]

eyewall now surrounded by cold tops, really taking off now

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate...&sec=mesoscale_02&p[0]=band_13&x=981&y=1055.5

 

[dsaur]

It will def. turn at some point over Florida. Does it ride up 95? or does it ride up 75? or west of there. The next 48 hours will be telling on if it can keep up its speed as it turns more WNW or W

Well, if it's I 75, I hope you'll let me know what to expect, lol... oh, and please take some starch out of it too I like the rain, it's the tornadoes, and general big winds that bother me I'm in the middle of a forest, and oddly, trees don't much like wind!

 

[Henry2326]

I do find it extremely interesting how alike it looks to Hugo, it’s actually quite scary.

Lol.......what would be really scary is if all the models move to Ukmet 12z which has a path to Charleston....I get what you are saying....

 

[Brick Tamland]

So, even if Dorian stays parallel to the coast, could there be a severe weather threat inland?

 

[Meteorologist1999]

Lol.......what would be really scary is if all the models move to Ukmet 12z which has a path to Charleston....I get what you are saying....

Where online could I find 12z Ukmet?

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Freeport is going to take it on the chin. I went there a several years ago on vacay and they are in no way prepared for a Cat4 hurricane

 

[Henry2326]

Where online could I find 12z Ukmet?

Total outlier until Euro ran.....

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

12z EPS.

View attachment 22493

Thanks Kylo. This is really all I needed to see. Saved me a lot of reading. Carry on

 

[RBR71]

So, even if Dorian stays parallel to the coast, could there be a severe weather threat inland?

Less likely, severe threat (tor etc) worst conditions always east side of center...

 

[pcbjr]

NHC says no. TWC say no. They are kinda smart.


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I was being tongue in cheek ...

 

[RBR71]

Where online could I find 12z Ukmet?

http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/forecast-systems.php?lang=en&mod=ukmet

 

[guiness187055]

Total outlier until Euro ran.....


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How does the euro starting off with a much weaker storm then what it really is affect the model run?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Dorian looks real nice right now, nice upshear convection, gravity waves in that CDO, eye looks weird probably from convection still tryna wrap around, starting to get that buzzsaw look

 

[SCWXGuy]

Total outlier until Euro ran.....


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Totally unrealistic. Look at the panel the day before (below). No way you go from 995 over inland Northern FL on Wednesday to 954 as a CAT 4/5 at Charleston the next day.

 

[pcbjr]

http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/forecast-systems.php?lang=en&mod=ukmet

Also in Wiki!!!!! Has been for ages ...