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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

So the Gulf disturbance is becoming a key player even more. Any changes will result in more pin wheeling erratic motions. ICON CMC and now EURO. Wouldn’t be surprised to see it further west from Louisiana into Tennessee.
 
Looks like the entire Gulf coast needs to watch out for this one. I don't like to make this comparison, but the Euro's path on 12z would take this in a Katrina direction. Hopefully things still change.

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The rain will be the big threat inland. And with that track, anyone on the southern or eastern escarpment should start building an ark if this becomes a trend.
But a good trend is a stall just inland to practically kill the storm and head due east will little to no Appalachian impact. It’s possible it escapes out to Myrtle Beach. That was certainly no Ivan track. But not ruling one out either after seeing the CMC.
 
Euro goes straight into AL
ecmwf_mslp_uv850_seus_10.png

Would this track IF right be a worst then Last year?


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But a good trend is a stall just inland to practically kill the storm and head due east will little to no Appalachian impact. It’s possible it escapes out to Myrtle Beach. That was certainly no Ivan track. But not ruling one out either after seeing the CMC.

Even if it kills the storms intensity or wind speed, a stall is the worst case for the apps. I mean look even 2 days before the storm gets close, upslope is already kicking in. Not good.
 
Headed west on the Euro @72 and you see why, again how far before it turns and/or is it a stall/crawl

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I hate to say it, but that is a classic looking upper level pattern for a big hit on the South East Coast. A strong hurricane moving westward underneath a ridge of high pressure to the North is about as classic is you one or maybe not want to see if you're in Florida in the South east
 
How about the Euro?
Harder to bet against the euro but at this juncture I still would. HWRF always tries to spit out these tight eye pinhole solutions and it’s just laughable. Every hurricane is not going to be a buzzsaw and HWRF is always the last to get that memo
 
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