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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

CMC slightly east than everyone else from my eye....bouncing off and on shore, eye running on the coast in full destruction mode. Coming in at GFS and Navgem point. Looks similar to 06z Navgem.
 
GEFS past 3 runs (12z, 0z, 12z). Can see trough in TN Valley digging further south which weakens w-ar quicker . This is through hour 60

GEFStrend.gif
 
hmon_ref_05L_22.png
 
It all has to do with the speed of Dorian slow speed and the war breaks due turning north sooner faster speed and turns north later
 
Considering how models always underestimate the strength of highs to the ne, I'm expecting to see flooding here, rather than a near miss. I'm going to sand bag my underground lair, and get the moles into some booties so they don't track mud. A labor day storm reminds me of how the one in the 35 ....it was described as having sand grains hitting each other in the 185 mph wind and sparking. That just blows my mind. The air full of sparking sand. I'm pretty sure Ga red clay won't spark, but I don't want to ever find out.
 
Considering many ensembles members are taking this thing very close before out to sea, we can hope the hurricane misses.
 
Shawn said:
Considering many ensembles members are taking this thing very close before out to sea, we can hope the hurricane misses.
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Alot of the ensemble members on the euro go ots if the storm is really stronger must be because of the weakness
 
Shaggy said:
These models are getting more and more data from balloons and recon too so at what point do they really start honing in on a consensus that can be trusted?
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What level of accuracy on landfall is acceptable to you?
 
Brent said:
UKMET Is really terrible this season it was horrible with Barry too

I know people say its good but I'm trying to remember when cause all I remember are fails
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This shift was so predictable. The UKMET is overrated due to its large leftward bias. It did well with Irma, but even a broken clock gets things right once in a while and the Euro was pretty close to it....so ,it wasn't on its own. The one good thing is that when it is on the far left of the consensus, one knows with high confidence that those tracks will end up too far left. I bet the next one will be left of this run.
 
The 12Z GEFS has the highest agreement yet by far with a track going up the FL peninsula and then just inland or near the SE coast.
 
012
URNT15 KNHC 301707
AF302 1805A DORIAN HDOB 51 20190830
165730 2508N 07038W 6966 03150 0088 +065 +025 051051 052 049 008 03
165800 2507N 07037W 6968 03143 0086 +061 +024 046052 053 049 009 03
165830 2506N 07036W 6981 03128 0080 +066 +024 052055 061 051 011 03
165900 2505N 07034W 6961 03139 0064 +070 +023 051062 064 056 009 03
165930 2504N 07033W 6969 03127 0055 +072 +022 050065 065 055 007 00
170000 2503N 07032W 6973 03115 0055 +065 +021 049067 068 059 006 00
170030 2502N 07031W 6962 03119 0030 +077 +021 046068 069 062 003 00
170100 2500N 07029W 6961 03108 0012 +080 +021 045071 073 065 008 00
170130 2459N 07028W 6963 03091 0014 +067 +022 039082 083 068 019 00
170200 2458N 07027W 6984 03051 0001 +065 +023 041079 083 071 023 00
170230 2457N 07026W 6972 03051 9980 +065 +025 042085 086 076 027 00
170300 2456N 07024W 6961 03037 9946 +071 +025 041088 090 083 031 00
170330 2455N 07023W 6974 03002 9912 +080 +026 046090 092 084 023 00
170400 2453N 07022W 6974 02979 9859 +103 +028 044090 092 094 011 00
170430 2452N 07021W 6970 02952 9805 +119 +028 040080 088 097 005 00
170500 2451N 07019W 6980 02915 9764 +131 +030 035065 077 097 008 03
170530 2450N 07018W 6963 02920 9725 +151 +033 030044 054 078 005 03
170600 2449N 07016W 6969 02902 9714 +150 +036 031026 039 048 005 03
170630 2448N 07015W 6970 02894 9696 +159 +040 045018 023 038 006 03
170700 2447N 07013W 6971 02889 9690 +161 +043 052003 014 036 003 03
97 knot SFMR winds has been found.
 
I think my original fear is starting to become true. You want to see a Hugo like path 5-10 days out so it will change and miss. We didn’t get that. I’m concerned it’s going to trend into a major flood for NC as the time runs out. I know there isn’t any meteorological connection but it seems you want to be in the bullseye 10 days out for it to miss. Winter and hurricanes. The models just aren’t good in the extended and the opposite seems to happen quiet a lot.
 
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.8N 70.3W
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
ABOUT 625 MI...1005 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES
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Dorian is now a major hurricane.
 
It will def. turn at some point over Florida. Does it ride up 95? or does it ride up 75? or west of there. The next 48 hours will be telling on if it can keep up its speed as it turns more WNW or W
 
12Z Euro almost stalling offshore FL. Is this going to even get onshore?
 
GaWx said:
I'm taking this weakness with the same grain of salt as I do when I see the extremely strong HWRF runs.
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Only reason I'm going to say that the HWRF and HMON aren't that far off is because the environment is going to become only better within 24 hours, and that numerous ERCs can produce a monster if given enough energy and time, which this has both. We are 3 to 4 days from landfall, and 3 from land interaction. It's a cat 3 now, and will probably be a 4 by tomorrow sometime if another ERC takes place today and it can ramp up fast. I'm worried about a HWRF solution though in terms of path. That shot up Florida is a recipe for inland wind threats at the size it would be.
 
Fact: Average speed of all tropical cyclones over water in the Atlantic has decreased by 10% since 1949. And 20% when over land. - Dr. Masters
 
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