Tropical Hurricane Dorian

[ForsythSnow]

Eyewall on the radar is starting to thicken, come together, and shrink. Not good.

 

[accu35]

Euro south??

 

[Brent]

Euro looks like its just gonna plow across the Peninsula

 

[BHS1975]

Euro south??

Slower timing.


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[Metwannabe]

Euro wsw as it crosses the peninsula

 

[Brent]

Yikes

 

[accu35]

Euro says watch out Gulf

 

[ncskywarn]

Euro south??

Yes South of Lake Okeechobee this run. 00Z had it North of the lake.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Simon brewer says Dorian won’t last, but that ULL isn’t strong at all, I’d say maybe some weakening then RI

 

[Brick Tamland]

If it goes across FL and into the Gulf, it could get even stronger for a second landfall. That is probably the worst case scenario, especially if the HWRF is right with the intensity.

 

[accu35]

Icon and Cmc may be on to something

 

[pcbjr]

Probably by 5:00 AM tomorrow some of this will be sorted out ... until then, it's a poker game and the deal is still going down ...

 

[Brent]

I don't even see a weakness on the Euro it may just keep going west

 

[ForsythSnow]

Simon brewer says Dorian won’t last, but that ULL isn’t strong at all View attachment 22203

That dude doesn't have a clue.

 

[Brent]

No good news

 

[KyloG]

Big ridge in the west directing northerly flow. So we have a stout slow crawling, trapped hurricane in the gulf with GA/FL in its sights.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

12z HWRF wowView attachment 22199View attachment 22200

Lmao..I can always toss the HWRF with the utmost confidence

 

[Myfrotho704_]

That dude doesn't have a clue.

Lmao I agree with you, I think he should focus on mesocyclones

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Early guess is globals are overamping the system causing it to tug poleward on modeling. If I was a betting man I would say this thing ends up on the southern end of guidance

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

If it goes across FL and into the Gulf, it could get even stronger for a second landfall. That is probably the worst case scenario, especially if the HWRF is right with the intensity.

HWRF is never close