Many showing the WSW turn.
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Tropical Hurricane Dorian
- Thread starter Metwannabe
- Start date
Many showing the WSW turn.
pcbjr
Member
That is perhaps the nicest post I've ever been a party to, here or at those other long forgotten places! Thanks! Think we'll be OK, but if all Hades breaks loose, I'll send out a shout!
Best and Thanks!
Phil
Love these maps from Allan, shows all model plots....
Good information here as well, time to ramp up the data collection....
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Up to 80mph, but the intensity forecast barely changes.
Is that just a little area of dry air or a actual eye tryna get going ? ? very tiny but it’s trying if it is 
Shaggy
Member
Yep if you look at radar it’s in about the same place
Eye but looks like some dry air intrusion from the south east hasn’t got to the center yet.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Possible it's both or either one. The radar is really filling in the eye wall now but still looks like dry air is getting in.
Cadi40
Member
Interested to see if the models start agree more or if another trend starts. Honestly at this point nothing would surprise me, we’re still at a point where there could be some dramatic changes regarding the track especially with the amount of variables steering this storm.
looked at a loop from radar scope and it almost looks like there some mesovortices in that eyewall getting going
On radar it looks like the center is taking a little north jump
Last edited:
Henry2326
Member
That just about tells the story....what a mess.
Bryce Shelton
Member
18z ICON looks a bit more North, and perhaps the center has taken a little jump North?..
Note that the highest concentration of the strong nonrecurving members into FL of the 12Z EPS are those that move W or WSW toward S FL. Notice that those north of the black line are largely moving WNW and are weaker (green). That makes sense because those further south have a stronger ridge to the north thus providing more favorable conditions though I think the greens are too weak.
pcbjr
Member
Slightest tick south or more west at 5:00 ... bad for me (NE quad and all), but good if it signals a trend way south and to old Mexico ...
Cadi40
Member
On the radar It definitely looks more of a northerly track than a westerly one. Regardless of the track this will be an interesting storm to watch!