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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

metwannabe said:
It is but also it isn't.... is it? I mean the last several runs had it turning north (maybe not stalling out but slowing), just seems it turned sooner this run. Either way, track wise it's certainly different and a head ache for the NHC
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Ridge was way weaker per Ryan on Twitter.
 
This run would certainly be a big sigh of relief, but for now it just adds to the confusion.

nobody needs the kind of major that this is potentially going to be.
 
It misses ( mostly) NC as well heads NE to right on or off Hatteras, would be a rough day on the beaches but it would have to track like the 12Z GFS to really be a bad hit for NC....
 
At least there’s a shot at this thing goin ots, but it’s only 1 run of the euro, hopefully future runs doesn’t bounce around and maybe this thing can go ots
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
This run would certainly be a big sigh of relief, but for now it just adds to the confusion.

nobody needs the kind of major that this is potentially going to be.
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Yeah....can't see politicians not evacuating Charleston with it that close off shore....just in case it doesn't work out that way.
 
We may be seeing a lot of members OTS on the EPS later today! *Crossing fingers*
 
GFS brings the storm along the same route, but just a hundred miles west. Amazing what a slight difference in the storm track can mean!

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metwannabe said:
It is but also it isn't.... is it? I mean the last several runs had it turning north (maybe not stalling out but slowing), just seems it turned sooner this run. Either way, track wise it's certainly different and a head ache for the NHC
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Hmmmm...might have similarities to UKmet....
 
Ser Pounce said:
What would this be, 4 years in a row now?

If what I read about initialization of this run is true it upps the size of the grain of salt I'm taking it with.
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Yep....and in my opinion, all caused by lack of consensus in models. I wouldn't want to be the politician who bet it wasn't coming and it did. Because of the severe flooding in Charleston, people could die. Here is the surge map for cat4. Basically 20-23 feet at high tide....

CHS_mom4.png
 
KyloG said:
Last 3 Euro runs. Can clear see the effects of the weaker w-ar. Don't get that bend SW as it approaches Florida.


View attachment 22482
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It's tricky though, that WAR often over performs (not just speaking tropical here)..... no room for error but it is a good trend no doubt
 
Any chance Dorian basically does a rare East Coast scrape from Florida to Maine? That would be just devastating.

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ForsythSnow said:
That's what I'm worried about.
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It does seem that the potential for the celebratory OTS solution, even if many members show it later, should give us pause knowing these other factors, such as the initialization. Trying to zero in on a track is hard enough but then factoring in known miscues to its given output is also important.....
 
So the threat increases for us here in SC, right? I'm actually located on the water in Charleston.
 
lol wut
ecmwf_mslp_uv850_atl_10.png
 
One thing for sure so far parts of the Bahamas are in for a dangerous strike. The EURO run was a huge blow. I assume all the storm chasers and reporters will be there.
 
It would be great to see Dorian miss everyone and go out to sea like the Euro showed, but that was really too close for comfort for folks north of Florida. Great for Florida to not get a direct hit from a monster hurricane, but if the Euro is a little off, it could mean somewhere like SC and NC get hit instead.
 
Henry2326 said:
Yep....and in my opinion, all caused by lack of consensus in models. I wouldn't want to be the politician who bet it wasn't coming and it did. Because of the severe flooding in Charleston, people could die. Here is the surge map for cat4. Basically 20-23 feet at high tide....
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They were nice enough to put that arc with "Charleston" written on it close to home but it's well into bugout territory either way. For coastal SC it's just way too early, and I'm not feeling good about consensus anytime soon.
 
metwannabe said:
It's tricky though, that WAR often over performs (not just speaking tropical here)..... no room for error but it is a good trend no doubt
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The Euro has over-modeled that which has led to this correction though. I guess it could tick back stronger. I like a blend of the GFS/Euro. Typically it's somewhere in the middle.

Of course, it's still day 4 until it starts it's north trek, so imagine something will change by then.

EuroGFS.gif
 
Just in from the last round of shopping and read 5 pages of the Euro barely making a landfall to making none ... leads to two thoughts: 1) hope it's right but it seems goofy and we'll see what the NHC does with it in a couple hours, and 2) wonder if Publix accepts returns of toilet paper and Velveta cheese ... LOL
 
Ser Pounce said:
They were nice enough to put that arc with "Charleston" written on it close to home but it's well into bugout territory either way. For coastal SC it's just way too early, and I'm not feeling good about consensus anytime soon.
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Correct....wait till Tuesday to see if it makes landfall or turns earlier than that...
 
KyloG said:
The Euro has over-modeled that which has led to this correction though. I guess it could tick back stronger. I like a blend of the GFS/Euro. Typically it's somewhere in the middle.

Of course, it's still day 4 until it starts it's north trek, so imagine something will change by then.

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What do you know the Euro is weakening its west atlantic ridge with time, I haven't seen that at all this summer
 
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