Henry2326
Member
That looks almost identical to Ukmet 12z.... trend setter.Amazing, just ride the coast line
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Tropical Hurricane Dorian
- Thread starter RBR71
- Start date
While its not as bad as the system plowing directly over head that track would cause problems in our area. Looks very similar to the runs ahead of MatthewAmazing, just ride the coast line
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Ser Pounce
Member
There's 100% less swimming with this one for me, but how come it looks like it floods higher farther away from the coast than on the front side of the islands?
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Yep, this is crazy. I mean it'll be great if we end up OTS but it'll be two major busts on the same storm if so by most of the models. First on the track/strength (getting killed off in Hispaniola) and then this storm slowing down so much that it possibly gets picked up by a trough and stays OTS outside the islands.
Dorian is shedding a lot of fat. It's gradually starting to look more symmetrical overall. It's always amazing how rapidly these storms evolve in a matter of hours, 10 hrs ago I thought it still looked like crap.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
I agree it looked horrible earlier. Now it's trying to become more symmetrical and the eye is next to a perfect circle. The eye also seems to be shrinking some now which either means it's about to RI again or undergo another ERC
Brent
Member
Looks like were having issues with some of the recon planes just what we need not
The G-lV for models was cancelled apparently due to mechanical issues
The G-lV for models was cancelled apparently due to mechanical issues
Henry2326
Member
pcbjr
Member
A rare IMBY post ... even a coastal hugger ... this would not be pretty ... in fact, it would be downright ugly ...
A part of myself that I don’t understand is a feeling of disappointment that it *seems* Dorian may head OTS. Nothing in stone for sure... And I NEVER want deaths, etc... but for some reason I am completely riveted watching a major come ashore. I always feel weird about it.
NC now under a state of Emergency.
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MichaelAndrews
Member
That whole area is mostly islands that are split up by multiple rivers that feed into the ocean, the places near the ocean are designed to handle the amount of water better than just west of them where those rivers flood very easily
pcbjr
Member
Easily cured ... come spend a weekend with one (but buy a piece of property in the neighborhood beforehand to get the full antidote) ...
NoSnowATL
Member
I feel the same way and I’m sure we are not alone feeling this way. Scary and dangerous is addicting.
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It’s only a matter of time before SC does IMO
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Great time for recon to make it to the storm. Eye is shrinking and convection is deepening.
Easy to say when you’re in Atlanta
HMON is faster and a bit weaker this run through 54 hours.
It is the extreme nature of well nature. If you are a weather nerd you want to see the most extreme weather possible. If you could have a Cat5 hit a island built with no other purpose except to see absolute power it would be great. Its the same thing as loving military planes and equipment. The A10 and its 30mm gun are terrifingly awesome, but at the same time that plane is designed to kill, and kill it has.
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pcbjr
Member
Just spent $250.00 at Publix this afternoon to make sure the wife and I (and my 82 year old next door neighbor) have emergency rations for 7 days; had $2.00 left in change so I bought a Lottery scratch off ... just did it and won $10.00 ... guarantees no 'Cane ... 
795
URNT15 KWBC 302303
NOAA2 2105A DORIAN HDOB 14 20190830
225330 2526N 07110W 6961 03096 9957 +107 +083 038074 076 059 004 00
225400 2525N 07108W 6956 03087 9939 +104 //// 037080 083 065 007 01
225430 2524N 07106W 6962 03058 9911 +108 +106 033082 082 070 012 00
225500 2523N 07104W 6959 03034 9882 +109 +109 033085 088 078 004 00
225530 2522N 07102W 6954 03010 9843 +113 +103 036090 093 087 008 00
225600 2521N 07101W 6958 02958 9788 +117 +107 037098 104 097 008 00
225630 2520N 07059W 6963 02893 9717 +119 //// 035111 116 104 008 01
225700 2519N 07057W 6938 02842 9615 +135 +129 037090 104 112 009 00
225730 2518N 07055W 6933 02811 9535 +170 +111 054050 059 111 029 03
225800 2516N 07054W 6937 02786 9489 +196 +085 069029 033 046 002 03
225830 2514N 07053W 6922 02792 9461 +213 +069 079015 022 038 001 03
225900 2513N 07052W 6949 02758 9473 +203 +080 242011 024 035 001 00
225930 2512N 07050W 7000 02717 9507 +193 +094 239033 036 055 000 03
230000 2512N 07048W 6923 02832 9552 +169 +083 229054 071 083 009 03
230030 2511N 07045W 6951 02861 9650 +128 +121 226098 108 101 015 00
230100 2510N 07043W 6963 02919 9747 +117 //// 218101 104 099 014 01
230130 2509N 07041W 6981 02957 9810 +115 //// 216097 103 091 020 01
230200 2508N 07039W 6968 03013 9859 +116 +103 213087 089 085 004 00
230230 2507N 07037W 6971 03039 9896 +111 +106 214081 083 077 005 00
230300 2506N 07035W 6959 03073 9931 +102 //// 214080 082 068 024 01
Pressure is down to 946.1 mb and the winds are up to 112 knots.
URNT15 KWBC 302303
NOAA2 2105A DORIAN HDOB 14 20190830
225330 2526N 07110W 6961 03096 9957 +107 +083 038074 076 059 004 00
225400 2525N 07108W 6956 03087 9939 +104 //// 037080 083 065 007 01
225430 2524N 07106W 6962 03058 9911 +108 +106 033082 082 070 012 00
225500 2523N 07104W 6959 03034 9882 +109 +109 033085 088 078 004 00
225530 2522N 07102W 6954 03010 9843 +113 +103 036090 093 087 008 00
225600 2521N 07101W 6958 02958 9788 +117 +107 037098 104 097 008 00
225630 2520N 07059W 6963 02893 9717 +119 //// 035111 116 104 008 01
225700 2519N 07057W 6938 02842 9615 +135 +129 037090 104 112 009 00
225730 2518N 07055W 6933 02811 9535 +170 +111 054050 059 111 029 03
225800 2516N 07054W 6937 02786 9489 +196 +085 069029 033 046 002 03
225830 2514N 07053W 6922 02792 9461 +213 +069 079015 022 038 001 03
225900 2513N 07052W 6949 02758 9473 +203 +080 242011 024 035 001 00
225930 2512N 07050W 7000 02717 9507 +193 +094 239033 036 055 000 03
230000 2512N 07048W 6923 02832 9552 +169 +083 229054 071 083 009 03
230030 2511N 07045W 6951 02861 9650 +128 +121 226098 108 101 015 00
230100 2510N 07043W 6963 02919 9747 +117 //// 218101 104 099 014 01
230130 2509N 07041W 6981 02957 9810 +115 //// 216097 103 091 020 01
230200 2508N 07039W 6968 03013 9859 +116 +103 213087 089 085 004 00
230230 2507N 07037W 6971 03039 9896 +111 +106 214081 083 077 005 00
230300 2506N 07035W 6959 03073 9931 +102 //// 214080 082 068 024 01
Pressure is down to 946.1 mb and the winds are up to 112 knots.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Might I say, that's the definition of RI. Just insane. I believe we have a cat 4 now.
La Plata
Member
Holy...
Charlotte Motor Speedway is taking evacuees. Rock City Campground FREE.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
If not a Category 4, it's really close and a strong Category 3 already.
Let's see what we get on the NE side when they get there...
Let's see what we get on the NE side when they get there...
pcbjr
Member
Hope this isn't considered banter, but it seems appropriate to say ... Thanks, everyone, for the updates, analysis and just good vibes on an otherwise not-so-nice situation ... really enjoying the input at every level ...
Boom
pcbjr
Member
just hope the Euro is right and Boom is not followed by "out go the lights" ...
one good thing, NWS Hogtown has taken the "H" word out of its forecast ...
Nomanslandva
Member
So 970 at 5 PM and now between 946 and 951? Boom is right.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
We've got to have a cat 4 now.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
HWRF is absolutely clutch inside 12-24 hours. Even though it's a short-range forecast, you have to be extremely impressed w/ how well this model forecast virtually to a T this period of very rapid intensification that's still ongoing w/ Dorian.
Winds up to 125 mph and the pressure is down to 950 mb.
Just saw this on Twitter:
18Z hwrf model
I'll be honest. I'm torn on the track on this one. I think if it land falls over Florida it will be tough to come back over water and just climb the spine I to GA into the Carolinas. Then the other thought it stays off shore period
This storm is being NUKE it’s like the storm will run in a brick wall from hitting US. ??
Jessy89
Member
HWRF takes it into Florida then into South Georgia probably still a cat 2
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SimeonNC
Member
Mods feel free to remove this question but assuming it takes the track going up the coast, would there be any major impacts in Western NC/SC?
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Jessy89
Member