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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

sigwx said:
If you guys and ladies had to guess now What do you think this cane would do run up the coast of Fl. or hit inland and where would it hit inland. Just trying to get an ideal. Thanks
Click to expand...
I still think it's too far out for that. It could carve up the peninsula a la Irma, or ride the coast like Matthew. Maybe it'll just into the GoM. Just too many viable options on the table still at this point.
Someone is going to be very uncomfortable, that I know.

I'm sitting up here in Fernandina Beach in an area where major hurricanes normally don't play a role and I'm on pins and needles, although it looks like we'll be seeing angry left overs again.
 
Yuleeraptor said:
I still think it's too far out for that. It could carve up the peninsula a la Irma, or ride the coast like Matthew. Maybe it'll just into the GoM. Just too many viable options on the table still at this point.
Someone is going to be very uncomfortable, that I know.

I'm sitting up here in Fernandina Beach in an area where major hurricanes normally don't play a role and I'm on pins and needles, although it looks like we'll be seeing angry left overs again.
Click to expand...
Thank You
 
Unfortunately, the 18Z Euro ensemble mean stopped the easterly trend of the EPS and is slightly west of the less threatening 12Z, which had a few more OTS and hardly any in the GOM. The 18Z is a bit more balanced around FL vs the 12Z which had more east of FL. There are a larger number in the E GOM.
 
sigwx said:
If you guys and ladies had to guess now What do you think this cane would do run up the coast of Fl. or hit inland and where would it hit inland. Just trying to get an ideal. Thanks
Click to expand...

Finding gasoline readily available in that part of Florida could be an issue, so you will need to plan for that.

How long does it take you to drive from Jupiter back to your home in a normal situation?
 
GaWx said:
Unfortunately, the 18Z Euro ensemble mean stopped the easterly trend of the EPS and is slightly west of the less threatening 12Z, which had a few more OTS and hardly any in the GOM. The 18Z is a bit more balanced around FL vs the 12Z which had more east of FL. There are a larger number in the E GOM.
Click to expand...

Where in Fl. did it show hitting land.
 
Last edited:
GaWx said:
Unfortunately, the 18Z Euro ensemble mean stopped the easterly trend of the EPS and is slightly west of the less threatening 12Z, which had a few more OTS and hardly any in the GOM. The 18Z is a bit more balanced around FL vs the 12Z which had more east of FL. There are a larger number in the E GOM.
Click to expand...
You got pics? Thanks
 
GaWx said:
There is no one spot. Much of the FL east coast. And then some ride it.
Click to expand...
Thank you, so there are some models still riding the east coast? Do you know how many, before you stated 30 to 40%. l hope that is still a trend. Thank you again!!
 
In this brief moment of stillness before another round of model runs, I want to thank you all for your hard work and analysis. Y’all are doing a great job with this storm, makes me look forward to chasing many a ghost snow storms with this team come winter. ?❄️
 
000
URNT15 KWBC 300206
NOAA2 1505A DORIAN HDOB 31 20190830
015700 2253N 06812W 7519 02478 9989 +149 +119 243051 052 057 000 00
015730 2255N 06812W 7515 02460 9949 +165 +121 244058 059 064 002 00
015800 2257N 06813W 7522 02431 9905 +187 +111 246064 066 069 002 00
015830 2259N 06813W 7513 02415 9863 +201 +104 246064 067 061 002 00
015900 2301N 06814W 7515 02379 9840 +191 +123 235041 051 051 001 00
015930 2303N 06814W 7516 02369 9824 +196 +102 209030 033 037 000 03
020000 2305N 06815W 7518 02350 9806 +201 +091 206022 023 033 000 00
020030 2307N 06817W 7521 02333 9786 +206 +092 199016 020 035 000 03
020100 2308N 06818W 7514 02326 9764 +211 +102 177008 013 035 000 03
020130 2310N 06819W 7525 02314 9774 +192 +122 071023 034 039 000 03
020200 2312N 06819W 7527 02323 9791 +185 +139 079042 051 078 003 00
020230 2314N 06819W 7523 02349 9831 +162 +154 087071 080 092 002 00
020300 2316N 06819W 7512 02397 9889 +139 //// 087095 098 090 008 01
020330 2318N 06819W 7503 02436 9937 +130 //// 088090 092 081 016 01
020400 2320N 06819W 7515 02451 9967 +131 //// 089085 088 078 010 01
020430 2321N 06819W 7524 02466 9990 +137 +124 091078 080 071 006 00
020500 2323N 06819W 7513 02493 0012 +136 +123 089072 074 066 008 00
020530 2325N 06819W 7524 02492 0022 +139 +112 092068 069 065 005 00
020600 2327N 06819W 7513 02515 0041 +131 +110 093066 068 060 006 00
020630 2329N 06819W 7497 02537 0053 +120 //// 089066 068 058 016 01


Latest recon data shows the pressure at 976.4 mb and the SFMR winds at 92 knots.
 
Snowfan said:
000
URNT15 KWBC 300206
NOAA2 1505A DORIAN HDOB 31 20190830
015700 2253N 06812W 7519 02478 9989 +149 +119 243051 052 057 000 00
015730 2255N 06812W 7515 02460 9949 +165 +121 244058 059 064 002 00
015800 2257N 06813W 7522 02431 9905 +187 +111 246064 066 069 002 00
015830 2259N 06813W 7513 02415 9863 +201 +104 246064 067 061 002 00
015900 2301N 06814W 7515 02379 9840 +191 +123 235041 051 051 001 00
015930 2303N 06814W 7516 02369 9824 +196 +102 209030 033 037 000 03
020000 2305N 06815W 7518 02350 9806 +201 +091 206022 023 033 000 00
020030 2307N 06817W 7521 02333 9786 +206 +092 199016 020 035 000 03
020100 2308N 06818W 7514 02326 9764 +211 +102 177008 013 035 000 03
020130 2310N 06819W 7525 02314 9774 +192 +122 071023 034 039 000 03
020200 2312N 06819W 7527 02323 9791 +185 +139 079042 051 078 003 00
020230 2314N 06819W 7523 02349 9831 +162 +154 087071 080 092 002 00
020300 2316N 06819W 7512 02397 9889 +139 //// 087095 098 090 008 01
020330 2318N 06819W 7503 02436 9937 +130 //// 088090 092 081 016 01
020400 2320N 06819W 7515 02451 9967 +131 //// 089085 088 078 010 01
020430 2321N 06819W 7524 02466 9990 +137 +124 091078 080 071 006 00
020500 2323N 06819W 7513 02493 0012 +136 +123 089072 074 066 008 00
020530 2325N 06819W 7524 02492 0022 +139 +112 092068 069 065 005 00
020600 2327N 06819W 7513 02515 0041 +131 +110 093066 068 060 006 00
020630 2329N 06819W 7497 02537 0053 +120 //// 089066 068 058 016 01


Latest recon data shows the pressure at 976.4 mb and the SFMR winds at 92 knots.
Click to expand...
At this rate we could be at cat 3 by the 5 am update
 
The cruise ship sailing today, from Charleston, has already re routed to Miami! Instead of the Bahamas
 
815
URNT15 KNHC 300222
AF300 1605A DORIAN HDOB 33 20190830
021230 2325N 06801W 6974 03127 //// +097 //// 135065 067 050 001 01
021300 2324N 06802W 6969 03126 //// +094 //// 134069 071 053 000 01
021330 2322N 06803W 6974 03113 0011 +093 //// 132072 073 056 000 01
021400 2321N 06805W 6967 03113 0004 +093 //// 132074 074 060 002 01
021430 2320N 06806W 6967 03102 //// +095 //// 135074 075 062 003 01
021500 2319N 06807W 6976 03079 9946 +112 //// 138076 077 066 001 01
021530 2318N 06809W 6969 03074 9938 +109 //// 141081 083 067 001 01
021600 2317N 06810W 6970 03055 9909 +116 //// 145084 086 072 002 05
021630 2316N 06811W 6973 03036 9887 +120 +112 145091 094 078 000 00
021700 2315N 06813W 6964 03019 9850 +127 +123 144082 094 079 001 00
021730 2314N 06814W 6974 02979 9797 +148 +121 148056 075 078 001 03
021800 2313N 06816W 6963 02987 9795 +142 +106 139033 043 065 001 00
021830 2312N 06817W 6970 02969 9782 +149 +098 150031 033 044 001 03
021900 2311N 06819W 6997 02926 9754 +166 +100 149028 033 037 000 00
021930 2310N 06820W 7015 02895 9758 +153 +108 153012 023 035 000 00
022000 2309N 06822W 6968 02954 9743 +170 +070 293009 017 031 001 00
022030 2307N 06823W 6978 02946 9757 +164 +066 302027 034 033 001 00
022100 2306N 06824W 6967 02971 9780 +153 +074 294038 044 049 005 00
022130 2305N 06826W 6991 02963 9801 +151 +081 308057 061 076 040 03
022200 2304N 06827W 6941 03045 9852 +127 +076 315060 062 080 029 03
$$
;
Latest Air force data has the pressure to 974.3 mb.
 
Feels like -- from the recon reports we're seeing tonight -- that we may see a substantial jump with the 11 p.m. ET advisory, going from mid Category 1 to mid-to-high Category 2.

--30--
 
I think that now he has lost its convective "tail" it should allow for its overall structure to improve and really start to strengthen and recon is showing that
 
Raw Recon Data
Time: 02:16:30Z
Coordinates: 23.267N 68.183W
Acft. Static Air Press: 697.3 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,036 m (9,961 ft)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 988.7 mb (29.20 inHg)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 145° at 91 kts (From the SE at 104.7 mph)
Air Temp: 12.0°C (53.6°F)
Dew Pt: 11.2°C (52.2°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 94 kts (108.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 78 kts (89.8 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 0 mm/hr
( * ) Denotes suspect data
 
The eye looks like it's gradually starting to reappear on IR. Some serious hot towers firing up on the northern side.
 
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 30th day of the month at 2:38Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5300
Storm Number & Year: 05 in 2019
Storm Name: Dorian (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 16
Observation Number: 19

A. Time of Center Fix: 30th day of the month at 2:19:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 23.16N 68.35W
B. Center Fix Location: 360 statute miles (580 km) to the NNW (336°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (U.S.).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,912m (9,554ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 979mb (28.91 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 30° at 24kts (From the NNE at 28mph)
F. Eye Character: Open in the southeast
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 8 nautical miles
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 79kts (90.9mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the ENE (57°) of center fix at 2:17:00Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 144° at 94kts (From the SE at 108.2mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the ENE (57°) of center fix at 2:16:30Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 55kts (63.3mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the SW (227°) of center fix at 2:24:30Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 314° at 62kts (From the NW at 71.3mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 6 nautical miles to the SW (227°) of center fix at 2:22:00Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,045m (9,990ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,019m (9,905ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 10°C (50°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 94kts (~ 108.2mph) which was observed 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the ENE (57°) from the flight level center at 2:16:30Z
General Note About Vortex Messages:
- Reported winds are usually averaged over a 10 second period. (The National Hurricane Center's advisory wind speeds are the highest expected winds averaged over a 1 minute period.)
 
ncskywarn said:
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 30th day of the month at 2:38Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5300
Storm Number & Year: 05 in 2019
Storm Name: Dorian (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 16
Observation Number: 19

A. Time of Center Fix: 30th day of the month at 2:19:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 23.16N 68.35W
B. Center Fix Location: 360 statute miles (580 km) to the NNW (336°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (U.S.).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,912m (9,554ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 979mb (28.91 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 30° at 24kts (From the NNE at 28mph)
F. Eye Character: Open in the southeast
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 8 nautical miles
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 79kts (90.9mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the ENE (57°) of center fix at 2:17:00Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 144° at 94kts (From the SE at 108.2mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the ENE (57°) of center fix at 2:16:30Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 55kts (63.3mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the SW (227°) of center fix at 2:24:30Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 314° at 62kts (From the NW at 71.3mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 6 nautical miles to the SW (227°) of center fix at 2:22:00Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,045m (9,990ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,019m (9,905ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 10°C (50°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 94kts (~ 108.2mph) which was observed 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the ENE (57°) from the flight level center at 2:16:30Z
General Note About Vortex Messages:
- Reported winds are usually averaged over a 10 second period. (The National Hurricane Center's advisory wind speeds are the highest expected winds averaged over a 1 minute period.)
Click to expand...
Let's try and put messages like this in a quote box from here forward. It takes up a ton of space.
 
ZCZC MIATCMAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019
0300 UTC FRI AUG 30 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DORIAN. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS
AREA ON FRIDAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 68.4W AT 30/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 30SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 68.4W AT 30/0300Z
AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 68.0W

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 24.3N 69.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 25.4N 71.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 26.0N 73.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 26.3N 74.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 26.8N 77.9W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 27.0N 79.8W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 27.5N 81.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.3N 68.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Click to expand...
 
Just in from the NHC advisory for 11 PM:

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FIND A STRENGTHENING DORIAN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.3N 68.4W
ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM ENE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
ABOUT 580 MI...930 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northwestern and central Bahamas should monitor the
progress of Dorian. Watches may be required for portions of this
area on Friday.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was
located near latitude 23.3 North, longitude 68.4 West. Dorian is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Friday. A west-northwestward
to westward motion is forecast to begin by Friday night and continue
into the weekend. On this track, Dorian should move over the
Atlantic well east of the southeastern and central Bahamas tonight
and on Friday, approach the northwestern Bahamas Saturday, and move
near or over portions of the northwest Bahamas on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h)
with higher gusts. Dorian is expected to become a major hurricane
on Friday and remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through the
weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter
data is 977 mb (28.85 inches).
 
025521_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
 
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