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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

She may already be a hurricane or at least very close to it.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 13:37Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF99-5309
Storm Number & Year: 05 in 2019
Storm Name: Dorian (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 9
Observation Number: 09

A. Time of Center Fix: 28th day of the month at 13:00:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17.33N 64.18W
B. Center Fix Location: 145 statute miles (233 km) to the ESE (121°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (U.S.).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,445m (4,741ft) at 850mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1002mb (29.59 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 345° at 18kts (From the NNW at 21mph)
F. Eye Character: Open in the northwest
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 32kts (36.8mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 29 nautical miles (33 statute miles) to the WNW (298°) of center fix at 12:49:30Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 15° at 34kts (From the NNE at 39.1mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the W (272°) of center fix at 12:56:00Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 51kts (58.7mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 8 nautical miles to the ESE (117°) of center fix at 13:04:00Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 213° at 56kts (From the SSW at 64.4mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the ESE (120°) of center fix at 13:04:30Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,527m (5,010ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 850mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 0.05 nautical miles

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 72kts (~ 82.9mph) which was observed 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the NE (45°) from the flight level center at 11:46:30Z
General Note About Vortex Messages:
- Reported winds are usually averaged over a 10 second period. (The National Hurricane Center's advisory wind speeds are the highest expected winds averaged over a 1 minute period.)
 
ncskywarn said:
She may already be a hurricane or at least very close to it.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 13:37Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF99-5309
Storm Number & Year: 05 in 2019
Storm Name: Dorian (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 9
Observation Number: 09

A. Time of Center Fix: 28th day of the month at 13:00:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17.33N 64.18W
B. Center Fix Location: 145 statute miles (233 km) to the ESE (121°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (U.S.).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,445m (4,741ft) at 850mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1002mb (29.59 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 345° at 18kts (From the NNW at 21mph)
F. Eye Character: Open in the northwest
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 32kts (36.8mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 29 nautical miles (33 statute miles) to the WNW (298°) of center fix at 12:49:30Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 15° at 34kts (From the NNE at 39.1mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the W (272°) of center fix at 12:56:00Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 51kts (58.7mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 8 nautical miles to the ESE (117°) of center fix at 13:04:00Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 213° at 56kts (From the SSW at 64.4mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the ESE (120°) of center fix at 13:04:30Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,527m (5,010ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 850mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 0.05 nautical miles

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 72kts (~ 82.9mph) which was observed 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the NE (45°) from the flight level center at 11:46:30Z
General Note About Vortex Messages:
- Reported winds are usually averaged over a 10 second period. (The National Hurricane Center's advisory wind speeds are the highest expected winds averaged over a 1 minute period.)
Click to expand...
Almost 2 days ahead of schedule
 
141530 1809N 06352W 8429 01605 0156 +158 +158 134042 045 040 013 03
141600 1807N 06353W 8430 01604 0164 +156 +156 135047 051 042 019 00
141630 1806N 06354W 8425 01606 0161 +156 +156 126034 043 041 018 03
141700 1805N 06355W 8433 01597 0162 +153 +153 118033 035 040 016 03
141730 1803N 06356W 8416 01612 0157 +153 //// 118034 036 040 028 05
141800 1802N 06357W 8433 01595 0142 +160 //// 127038 040 035 006 01
141830 1801N 06358W 8429 01598 0141 +162 //// 132044 045 036 005 05
141900 1759N 06359W 8432 01593 0133 +164 //// 132047 048 037 006 01
141930 1758N 06400W 8435 01584 0139 +162 //// 132046 048 037 007 05
142000 1757N 06400W 8433 01584 0139 +161 +161 140047 049 039 008 00
142030 1756N 06401W 8428 01586 0128 +161 //// 143051 052 039 007 05
142100 1755N 06402W 8433 01579 0138 +155 +155 143051 053 038 008 03
142130 1753N 06403W 8429 01583 0139 +160 +160 150049 051 045 041 03
142200 1752N 06404W 8416 01590 0139 +155 +155 152056 057 058 027 00
142230 1751N 06405W 8436 01572 0140 +153 +153 144054 057 046 024 03
142300 1750N 06406W 8434 01571 0131 +159 +159 143052 054 038 010 03
142330 1749N 06406W 8438 01566 0123 +163 +163 149055 057 039 007 00
142400 1748N 06407W 8427 01574 0124 +159 +159 150054 055 040 009 03
142430 1746N 06408W 8436 01562 0119 +156 +156 149060 062 /// /// 03
142500 1745N 06409W 8432 01562 0119 +151 +151 151065 065 047 008 03
Click to expand...
Latest recon is showing hurricane force winds.
 
NHC Director Ken Graham and, for our Spanish-language viewers, TAFB meteorologist Maria Torres will provide a Facebook Live broadcast at 11:30 a.m. AST/EDT regarding Tropical Storm Dorian.
 
AL, 05, 2019082812, 03, OFCL, 3, 175N, 645W, 60, 1000, TS

Am I reading this correct? Does that mean that the 11 AM advisory will be 60 Kts and 1000 MSP?
 
A very clear indication of a developing eyewall on the latest pass. Look how the winds sharply drop with the pressure. I thin it'll be a hurricane at the 2 pm advisory. Too early to call it one now, but he's on his way to becoming one with just a little more structure.
recon_AF309-0905A-DORIAN_timeseries.png
 
075
URNT15 KNHC 281435
AF309 0905A DORIAN HDOB 31 20190828
142530 1744N 06410W 8426 01558 0111 +153 +153 153064 065 052 014 03
142600 1743N 06410W 8433 01548 0104 +158 +158 160064 065 053 014 03
142630 1742N 06411W 8428 01549 0098 +161 +161 162065 066 057 013 03
142700 1741N 06412W 8430 01539 0088 +164 +164 168066 067 /// /// 03
142730 1740N 06413W 8430 01536 0074 +175 +175 180060 066 059 012 03
142800 1739N 06413W 8433 01536 0069 +180 //// 189055 059 058 009 05
142830 1739N 06415W 8423 01537 0057 +177 //// 191041 052 060 002 05
142900 1739N 06417W 8440 01520 //// +176 //// 192032 039 049 002 01
142930 1739N 06418W 8420 01536 //// +179 //// 191026 030 039 003 01
143000 1739N 06420W 8442 01509 //// +182 //// 192018 022 029 001 01
143030 1739N 06422W 8431 01521 0029 +187 +181 203014 015 026 002 01
143100 1740N 06423W 8440 01513 0026 +195 +175 215010 014 024 002 00
143130 1741N 06425W 8474 01475 0025 +195 +175 177008 009 025 000 00
143200 1742N 06426W 8440 01509 0022 +198 +173 118005 007 026 001 03
143230 1742N 06428W 8442 01506 0025 +195 +177 059008 011 024 005 00
143300 1743N 06429W 8478 01477 0029 +197 +180 038011 013 027 003 03
143330 1743N 06431W 8483 01472 0029 +200 +182 358016 020 040 005 03
143400 1741N 06432W 8432 01531 0044 +183 +177 328023 025 040 005 00
143430 1740N 06433W 8433 01530 0064 +175 //// 319026 028 038 006 01
143500 1739N 06434W 8433 01538 0069 +167 //// 319028 031 037 005 01
Latest recon pass has the SFMR winds near hurricane strength.
 
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