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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

KyloG said:
Euro taking right over PR which weakens it quite a bit.

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I'm somewhat doubtful of that solution at this juncture, Dorian would really have to take a hard left here for several hours to take the circulation over the island but frictional convergence & channeling w/ the terrain of PR could tug it in that direction once Dorian reaches the latitude of PR
 
Webberweather53 said:
I'm somewhat doubtful of that solution at this juncture, Dorian would really have to take a hard left here for several hours to take the circulation over the island but frictional convergence & channeling w/ the terrain of PR could tug it in that direction once Dorian reaches the latitude of PR
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No kidding, just looking at radar unless it starts to feel that tug it's going NE of PR..... dang
 
Webberweather53 said:
I'm somewhat doubtful of that solution at this juncture, Dorian would really have to take a hard left here for several hours to take the circulation over the island but frictional convergence & channeling w/ the terrain of PR could tug it in that direction once Dorian reaches the latitude of PR
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Thats what I thought to when looking at the radar.
 
Well, the overnight runs didn't clear anything up as far as where Dorian will go, but they do pretty much agree this could become a major hurricane in the next few days. GFS the furthest north, while others have it hitting Florida still. I see the GFS went from hitting NC to further south into SC the last run, though, so maybe it is adjusting further south in line with the other models showing Dorian going into Florida.
 
Skeptical of any model being right at this point because they missed so badly in the short term. 3 days ago this was going over the shredder or shooting the gap between PR and hispaniola and now it stands a real chance of missing PR east. This is a pretty big bust in the short range.
 
Shaggy said:
Skeptical of any model being right at this point because they missed so badly in the short term. 3 days ago this was going over the shredder or shooting the gap between PR and hispaniola and now it stands a real chance of missing PR east. This is a pretty big bust in the short range.
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I agree....a business miss their forecast in this short of term and somebody getting fired. Especially when some of it was driven by placing the current position in the wrong spot on the map.
 
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