pcbjr
Member
one hell of a thing to wake up to ...
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one hell of a thing to wake up to ...
I feel like we have seen this before...which one is modeling the w-atlantic ridge better.
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This HWRF run is really taking off, makes Dorian virtually a category 4 hurricane in just over 72 hours.
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This HWRF run is really taking off, makes Dorian virtually a category 4 hurricane in just over 72 hours.
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Dorian will be a high end cat 4 with a chance at a cat 5, models are too low on intensity right now.
Intensifying much earlier than we thought... its beginning to look like OTS is our only hope to avoid major caneFirst hurricane hunter pass this morning finds Dorian to be approaching hurricane status w/ max winds near 55 knots (65 mph) and minimum central pressure close to 1000 mb.
Absolutely crazy to think this is only our fourth named storm ... and it could be the most memorable yet ..What a hell of a 180 turn from 7 hours ago before I went to bed when the NHC forecast barely had a Cat. 1 hurricane, now we're looking at least at a Cat. 2 approaching the FL coastline. It's also very concerning how rapidly Dorian has been able to establish any form of an eyewall in what has been not so ideal environmental conditions. It gives me bad vibes of Irma, Maria, Florence, Harvey, and Michael over the past couple years and how they were able to do the same at different stages of their life cycles.
The upper-level pattern on the HWRF is downright scary. 3 outflow channels for #Dorian to work with near the northern Bahamas.
Umm...
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I will tell you it's usually not the GFS.I feel like we have seen this before...which one is modeling the w-atlantic ridge better.
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Well Andrew was the first in the year it hit Florida. I'm sure this is going to be "the" storm of the year.Absolutely crazy to this this is only our fourth named storm ... and it could be the most memorable yet ..
From the way I see it, if you take this into account and add the steering into the factor, it's not looking good for FL at all. From what TWC was discussing this morning, they're saying the GFS and Euro ensembles mostly steer right into Florida and the operational GFS seems to be on the more northern end of the runs. I've also noticed the HWRF and HMON dropped back further SW and both hit the space coast. I also saw the legacy come back that way as well. I think this trend north has stopped and the models are starting to come closer to the stronger ridge the Euro is advertising.Here's an edited version of the same image so others on here can see what I'm talking about.
I can count on one hand the number of times I've seen a TC forecast to interact w/ 3 outflow channels, hurricane Isabel (2003) was one of them.
Really can't be overstated enough how favorable this upper-level pattern is likely going to be in 3-4 days for Dorian.
Yikes
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