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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

We better start praying or doing some voodoo or whatever it takes to get this to curve out to sea, because if Dorian does hit it is going to be very destructive. This could end up tearing apart FL, GA, SC, and NC.
 
Wherever the low starts crawling at is going to get a bunch of heavy rain dropped on them:

View attachment 22382

As I’ve said, don’t be surprised if the rainfall ends up being as big a story from this as any aspect. I mean those 10-20”+ amounts on the 18Z GFS probably cover some 20K miles (that’s 2/3 the size of the state of SC). I was checking some other SE storms like Floyd, Joaquin, Florence, Alberto, and Matthew. Based on this, I think that the 18Z GFS might be making it close to a record dumping for one storm in the SE. It is possible that only Florence would exceed this model run. What’s amazing is that Dorian isn’t even projected to be a big storm! Besides the very slow movement, very important heavy rain favoring factors are very low shear persisting through its inland track and very warm SSTs/dewpoints. (Harvey isn’t a SE storm. So, it isn’t being considered. This wouldn’t get close to Harvey, which may be a 1 in 1000 year event.)
 
We better start praying or doing some voodoo or whatever it takes to get this to curve out to sea, because if Dorian does hit it is going to be very destructive. This could end up tearing apart FL, GA, SC, and NC.
want it to dissipate? just prog it to somehow cause a snow in wake, and the whole damn thing will just vaporize ... o_O
 
18z euro. Globals are in pretty good agreement through day 4.

3DFCB280-57C5-4A23-921C-E82A2586FADB.png
 
Latest pass showing 972mb with 16kt winds. So probably 970’ish...yikes.
 
As of now do you think Jupiter Fl. is in the path. l have to know soon my Mother lives there and l may need to go and get her. The models showed a little hope of a recurve up the coast. Thanks for your Help.
 
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As of now do you think Jupiter Fl. is in the path. l have to know soon my Mother lives there and l may need to go and get her. The models showed a little hope of a recurve up the coast. Thanks for your Help.

Even if it's not a direct hit, I don't think Jupiter gets out of this without some significant impacts. My opinion.
 
We are close enough now to see our pieces!
I enjoy examining these so here we go.

First you can clearly see some shear impacting the southern portions of Dorian. Likely the last bit of negative environment on Dorian from the retreating ULL.

Next the two outflow channels are really exploding. On loop the western channel is just exploding outward. Sign of great environment on the horizon.

You can see the silhouette of our ridge/high that will block and shove Dorian to the west. This is moving VERY slow and will take another day before influencing a change of direction.

Finally dorians track and you can see how the diverging scenarios at landfall can play out.

We can’t see what that ridge will do yet and that’s why you have model chaos.

Hope this is helpful for all of you! You really can see a lot if you just look ?
19D0DF89-623A-4FC5-81C5-E5976E380F78.jpeg

Starting in the next 8-14 hrs Dorian will have its best environment yet. It will have plenty of room for outflow and relatively little shear and dry air. It will have a solid 24hrs to really show what it’s got before the high really influences it and could cause it to level off.

This environment can easily support a cat 4.
 
As I’ve said, don’t be surprised if the rainfall ends up being as big a story from this as any aspect. I mean those 10-20”+ amounts on the 18Z GFS probably cover some 20K miles (that’s 2/3 the size of the state of SC). I was checking some other SE storms like Floyd, Joaquin, Florence, Alberto, and Matthew. Based on this, I think that the 18Z GFS might be making it close to a record dumping for one storm in the SE. It is possible that only Florence would exceed this model run. (Harvey isn’t a SE storm. So, it isn’t being considered. This wouldn’t get close to Harvey, which may be a 1 in 1000 year event.)
To add to this as the storm moves north its likely to transition to a left of track heavy rain event with good divergence aloft a jet steak over the mid Atlantic and trough approaching. Using the 18z gfs you could probably expand that rain shield in the Carolinas farther NW as it is likely underestimating the aerial coverage

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As of now do you think Jupiter Fl. is in the path. l have to know soon my Mother lives there and l may need to go and get her. The models showed a little hope of a recurve up the coast. Thanks for your Help.

Based off the most recent runs, I'd say there's going to be significant impacts at the very least, but I think what I'd do is I'd watch it until late tomorrow and then decide. Gives yourself an extra day before the rush if needed.
 
going to bed now (yes, I hear the cheers ... LOL) ... hope to wake up and find our little friend is way OTS ... my only regret is that if that happens, next time folks will ignore the hype, be complacent, and suffer the consequences ...
 
That's what l told my Mother give me until the 12z models tomorrow. Thank You! But is the recurve still there EURO EMS.
 
Yikes

005530 2306N 06754W 7518 02446 9964 +134 +132 143089 090 076 002 00
005600 2305N 06756W 7509 02432 9931 +140 +134 142092 094 080 001 00
005630 2304N 06758W 7514 02395 9879 +159 +150 145082 085 085 001 00
 
Yikes

005530 2306N 06754W 7518 02446 9964 +134 +132 143089 090 076 002 00
005600 2305N 06756W 7509 02432 9931 +140 +134 142092 094 080 001 00
005630 2304N 06758W 7514 02395 9879 +159 +150 145082 085 085 001 00
That's not good.
 
Something's broken either with TT or the dropsonde
recon_NOAA2-1505A-DORIAN_dropsonde7_20190830-0047.png
 
788
URNT15 KNHC 300112
AF300 1605A DORIAN HDOB 26 20190830
010230 2309N 06814W 6970 03046 //// +075 //// 062073 077 064 029 05
010300 2308N 06813W 6932 03067 //// +082 //// 065067 077 /// /// 05
010330 2307N 06812W 7007 02954 //// +086 //// 054031 056 091 027 01
010400 2306N 06811W 6971 02990 //// +114 //// 052018 021 084 009 05
010430 2304N 06810W 6967 02987 //// +133 //// 042018 019 053 002 01
010500 2303N 06808W 6956 02989 //// +144 //// 018012 017 033 000 01
010530 2302N 06806W 6965 02975 9775 +150 +130 215003 011 031 001 00
010600 2302N 06805W 6967 02977 9783 +149 +105 183025 036 040 000 00
010630 2301N 06803W 6975 02979 9802 +147 +103 184048 055 040 000 03
010700 2300N 06801W 6951 03022 9811 +153 +104 196060 064 061 001 00
010730 2259N 06800W 6980 03009 9846 +143 +099 198066 073 070 000 00
010800 2258N 06759W 6980 03034 9892 +127 +097 203071 073 070 000 00
010830 2257N 06758W 6972 03066 9923 +120 +086 201070 071 067 001 03
010900 2256N 06757W 6963 03083 9945 +113 +083 197064 069 065 000 00
010930 2255N 06756W 6967 03092 9966 +104 +087 199062 064 059 000 03
011000 2254N 06755W 6967 03100 9974 +108 +088 203064 065 057 000 00
011030 2252N 06754W 6970 03106 9981 +110 +081 206061 064 052 000 03
011100 2251N 06752W 6969 03116 9990 +111 +077 210057 059 050 000 00
011130 2250N 06751W 6971 03120 0009 +102 +078 210054 056 047 000 00
011200 2249N 06750W 6967 03133 0030 +091 +082 210053 055 046 000 00
$$
;


Latest recon data shows flagged 91 knots SMFR and the pressure at 977.5.
 
If you guys and ladies had to guess now What do you think this cane would do run up the coast of Fl. or hit inland and where would it hit inland. Just trying to get an ideal. Thanks
 
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