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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

Arcc said:
Its really about speed. The farther NE it goes initially, the slower the forward progress amd the more time the trough has to erode the ridge.

The ICON's trump card is the much stronger ULL over the gulf.
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Great point, that center reformation NE, allowing more of that north turn early.....its taking the long way to the US allowing the trough to do its work. Yesterday's guidance was more of a almost straight shot, quicker trip less trough interaction. Still interesting to see, it could go ots or it could be like some we've seen before and be slow to make that turn north. How many times have we seen tracks continue to adjust west waiting on a high to erode....so yeah lots to figure out still.

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metwannabe said:
Great point, that center reformation NE, allowing more of that north turn early.....its taking the long way to the US allowing the trough to do its work. Yesterday's guidance was more of a almost straight shot, quicker trip less trough interaction. Still interesting to see, it could go ots or it could be like some we've seen before and be slow to make that turn north. How many times have we seen tracks continue to adjust west waiting on a high to erode....so yeah lots to figure out still.

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Click to expand...

Yeah, I can see two senarios. Either the GFS pulls this out of its backside and scores a yuge win or the track probably adjusts westward to southwestward as the "NW trend" occurs with the s/w over the midwest and the ridge verifies stronger. The ridge actually builds in with a vengence on the 0z Euro just a hair too late. If that trough is weaker and the ridge builds in faster this may go much farther west.
 
Just saw TJs tweet on Twitter, and looking at Dorian, the way it’s moving it almost looks like it’s gonna pass to the east of the PR like he’s actually saying, that’s no bueno if true
 
Definitely worrisome to see Dorian starting to intensify this early when conditions really weren't supposed to be that favorable to begin with before its passage thru Puerto Rico. This doesn't bode well for folks downstream because Dorian will be much more apt to take advantage of the favorable environment in the SW Atlantic and become a major hurricane.
 
Puerto Rico is the last chance to help the SE coast out. If this thing skirts east just enough to go unscathed, then all we have left to save the SE coast from a major hit is a weaker HP in 5 days.
 
Fwiw NAVGEM stronger at 54 vs previous run9EFEE2AF-0541-4C64-B5C8-2376E33DB2A8.jpeg
 
I keep thinking of the Hurricane Floyd track. Different storms, but I could see Dorian Track evolving much the same way Floyd did. Regardless , gonna be a lot of shuffling people this last weekend of summer (Holiday) on the SE Coast. Sure we will start seeing some evacuations by Sunday.
 
In case anyone here was wondering, you can follow along here for real-time radar data out of San Juan, Puerto Rico:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/radar.html

Pretty concerning to see the southeastern flank of the eyewall already attempting to fill in as Dorian approaches. If the eyewall manages to close off, more significant & potentially rapid intensification would commence. Will be interesting to see when this occurs.

TJUA20190828110539.png
 
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