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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

Wouldn’t the slowing coming into the Florida coast, cause weakening due to upwelling?
 
Should be more accurate in the morning. With weather balloon and recon information going into the models. The new sampling should give us a more accurate track


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Jessy89 said:
Should be more accurate in the morning. With weather balloon and recon information going into the models. The new sampling should give us a more accurate track


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Click to expand...
Bump - but it should have been more accurate before now ... except with these things, one never knows, so here's on to 11:00, 5:00,and then ...
 
Tarheel1 said:
Wouldn’t the slowing coming into the Florida coast, cause weakening due to upwelling?
Click to expand...

If I’m not mistaken, water temps at 80 degrees goes pretty deep in those waters near the eastern FL coast and plus it’s part of the Gulf Stream
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
If I’m not mistaken, water temps at 80 degrees goes pretty deep in those waters near the eastern FL coast and plus it’s part of the Gulf Stream
Click to expand...
Not to mention it would have to stall out for some time for upwelling to commence and have any effect
 
The HMON must've found some crack because it's saying a cat 5 in 24 hours.
hmon_mslp_wind_05L_9.png
 
NHC track and most models have Dorian crossing 25N 75W, right on that point.... I'm using it as a point of reference, atm still looks to be moving n or nw. If this crosses 25N east of 75W it will be close to slowing/turning prior to landfall imo.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The 18z HMON run seemed black-out drunk & got a little too carried away w/ happy hour. Forecasted 973mb at 0z (8pm) about the time of this first recon pass so we'll see how close it is.
Click to expand...
The idea of black out drunk and then getting carried away with happy hour is a nice way of looking at things, Webb ... ;)
May have done the same thing once, but I swear I don't remember ... :eek:


jk
 
Last edited:
000
URNT15 KWBC 292356
NOAA2 1505A DORIAN HDOB 18 20190829
234700 2258N 06809W 7518 02487 0015 +132 +122 045055 058 052 006 00
234730 2257N 06807W 7518 02475 0000 +130 //// 047062 065 057 009 01
234800 2256N 06806W 7505 02468 9971 +137 +136 046066 070 060 011 00
234830 2254N 06804W 7524 02415 9934 +138 //// 047070 072 061 049 05
234900 2253N 06803W 7502 02393 9877 +145 //// 042063 078 078 040 01
234930 2251N 06801W 7530 02330 9808 +167 //// 031032 037 081 023 01
235000 2250N 06800W 7527 02325 9747 +194 //// 010020 025 063 010 05
235030 2250N 06757W 7522 02329 9727 +192 //// 172009 016 041 002 05
235100 2249N 06755W 7526 02345 9783 +199 //// 178032 041 038 000 01
235130 2248N 06754W 7515 02364 9823 +193 +095 183048 049 053 001 00
235200 2248N 06752W 7528 02361 9848 +175 +109 190047 049 055 001 00
235230 2247N 06750W 7509 02398 9868 +168 +128 194055 061 057 000 03
235300 2246N 06748W 7521 02401 9892 +165 +126 192072 074 070 001 00
235330 2245N 06747W 7513 02440 9927 +157 +119 196083 087 071 000 00
235400 2244N 06745W 7527 02446 9966 +144 +115 199082 085 069 000 00
235430 2243N 06744W 7525 02465 9993 +135 +124 202075 078 063 002 00
235500 2242N 06742W 7524 02483 0014 +132 +119 202073 073 057 002 00
235530 2241N 06740W 7516 02501 0030 +127 +121 201068 070 052 002 00
235600 2240N 06738W 7519 02507 0041 +127 +122 203063 064 052 003 00
235630 2239N 06737W 7519 02514 0050 +130 +111 203061 062 050 002 00


Pressure is down to 972.7 mb and the SFMR winds is up to 81 knots.
 
My girlfriends family/relatives live in daytona ?. Theyre deciding soon on wether to drive on up and stay with my girlfriend in birmingham. Lets hope this curves out too sea??
 
909
URNT15 KNHC 300002
AF300 1605A DORIAN HDOB 19 20190829
235230 2254N 06754W 6957 03012 //// +116 //// 147055 058 /// /// 05
235300 2256N 06755W 6973 03003 //// +105 //// 128058 059 /// /// 05
235330 2256N 06758W 6969 02994 //// +102 //// 113058 059 088 008 05
235400 2255N 06759W 6959 02986 //// +110 //// 101052 058 082 006 05
235430 2253N 06800W 6976 02945 //// +128 //// 106028 043 043 002 01
235500 2251N 06800W 6969 02949 9771 +135 +132 251006 020 037 001 01
235530 2249N 06800W 6964 02975 9779 +144 +112 297009 013 027 000 03
235600 2248N 06759W 6975 02969 9783 +154 +108 264020 024 /// /// 03
235630 2248N 06757W 6958 02996 9788 +150 +102 197026 031 022 000 03
235700 2250N 06756W 6975 02961 9782 +149 +100 180038 041 042 001 00
235730 2251N 06755W 6962 02993 9804 +140 +098 169047 048 049 001 00
235800 2253N 06753W 6974 02992 9835 +125 +100 161054 059 073 002 00
235830 2254N 06752W 6976 03004 9863 +115 +104 151061 064 079 002 00
235900 2256N 06750W 6957 03038 9886 +107 //// 154072 075 078 002 01
235930 2257N 06749W 6967 03050 9926 +093 //// 153084 086 076 004 01
000000 2259N 06747W 6980 03054 //// +077 //// 150081 086 070 007 01
000030 2300N 06746W 6966 03088 9998 +075 +069 150079 081 066 009 00
000100 2301N 06745W 6969 03101 0005 +084 +066 149073 078 066 003 00
000130 2303N 06743W 6959 03121 0015 +087 +063 149068 071 066 001 00
000200 2304N 06742W 6976 03110 0027 +085 +066 148066 068 062 003 00
$$
The recent pass shows the SFMR winds up to 88 knots now.
 
Snowfan said:
909
URNT15 KNHC 300002
AF300 1605A DORIAN HDOB 19 20190829
235230 2254N 06754W 6957 03012 //// +116 //// 147055 058 /// /// 05
235300 2256N 06755W 6973 03003 //// +105 //// 128058 059 /// /// 05
235330 2256N 06758W 6969 02994 //// +102 //// 113058 059 088 008 05
235400 2255N 06759W 6959 02986 //// +110 //// 101052 058 082 006 05
235430 2253N 06800W 6976 02945 //// +128 //// 106028 043 043 002 01
235500 2251N 06800W 6969 02949 9771 +135 +132 251006 020 037 001 01
235530 2249N 06800W 6964 02975 9779 +144 +112 297009 013 027 000 03
235600 2248N 06759W 6975 02969 9783 +154 +108 264020 024 /// /// 03
235630 2248N 06757W 6958 02996 9788 +150 +102 197026 031 022 000 03
235700 2250N 06756W 6975 02961 9782 +149 +100 180038 041 042 001 00
235730 2251N 06755W 6962 02993 9804 +140 +098 169047 048 049 001 00
235800 2253N 06753W 6974 02992 9835 +125 +100 161054 059 073 002 00
235830 2254N 06752W 6976 03004 9863 +115 +104 151061 064 079 002 00
235900 2256N 06750W 6957 03038 9886 +107 //// 154072 075 078 002 01
235930 2257N 06749W 6967 03050 9926 +093 //// 153084 086 076 004 01
000000 2259N 06747W 6980 03054 //// +077 //// 150081 086 070 007 01
000030 2300N 06746W 6966 03088 9998 +075 +069 150079 081 066 009 00
000100 2301N 06745W 6969 03101 0005 +084 +066 149073 078 066 003 00
000130 2303N 06743W 6959 03121 0015 +087 +063 149068 071 066 001 00
000200 2304N 06742W 6976 03110 0027 +085 +066 148066 068 062 003 00
$$
The recent pass shows the SFMR winds up to 88 knots now.
Click to expand...
Flagged of course, but still there are some impressive pressure drops and unflagged wind upgrades. I can see this going to a cat 2 at the 11 PM advisory.
 
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