• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Hurricane Dorian

000
WTNT25 KNHC 281453
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019
1500 UTC WED AUG 28 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO SAMANA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
12 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 64.5W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 64.5W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 64.1W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 18.7N 65.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 20.5N 67.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 22.4N 68.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 24.2N 69.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 26.5N 74.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 27.7N 77.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 28.6N 80.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 64.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 28/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Click to expand...
 
They are now forecasting her to become a Major.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 64.5W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 64.1W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 18.7N 65.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 20.5N 67.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 22.4N 68.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 24.2N 69.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 26.5N 74.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 27.7N 77.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 28.6N 80.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 64.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 28/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
I don’t wanna say the name but there was a storm in 1928 that resembles the intensification that Dorian may soon find in a similar landfall location in Florida. Resembles a lot of guidance.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Dorian isn't even gonna come close to Puerto Rico at this rate. This is a pretty colossal short-range forecast bust
Click to expand...
Yeah according to buoy reports winds gusting upwards 25 mph out of the N on St. Croix, which means the center is due east of there, so probably going to just skirt the eastern tip of St. Croix or go east of it.... bottom line it almost has to hook hard left to make landfall on PR
 
EDELBGDXsAAdyUK
 
BirdManDoomW said:
I don’t wanna say the name but there was a storm in 1928 that resembles the intensification that Dorian may soon find in a similar landfall location in Florida. Resembles a lot of guidance.
Click to expand...
I think it will be further north than this one. But what do I know.....
 
150120_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dorian Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 AM AST Wed Aug 28 2019

...DORIAN VERY NEAR ST. CROIX IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 64.5W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Warning has been issued for Vieques, Culebra, and the
U.S. Virgin Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Vieques and Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Samana

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12
hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 12 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
12 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
Click to expand...
 
Kinda getting a little sick feeling tbh, conditions are so favorable for strengthening, especially after tommorow, this thing has time to strengthen into a monster
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top