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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

Arcc said:
I think you can assume with a pretty good degree of certainty that the area will be impacted. That said how much wont be known until a few hours before landfall. Unless it grows you can probably assume a hurricane as compact as Michael.
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Thank You, I HOPE IT CHANGES IT'S PATH!!!
 
Shawn said:
00z GFS Legacy not terribly far off from the 12z Euro tracking around the Eastern FL Coast.
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Very 12z EURO like.
00z GFS and GFS Legacy just subtle differences but huge implications on Rainfall in the SC Coastal Plain. The GFS has just a few inches of rain whereas the Legacy bombards the coast with 10"+ of rain
 
so take a little "east" bias out for GFS and a little "west" bias of the ukie and you will probably get a run like the euro tonight.
 
SORRY FOR THE SMALL SIZE BUT THIS IS THE ICON FROM HR 18 TILL HR 126
SHOWS LAND FALL AT HR 117 TUESDAY @950Mb
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I think we may be starting to see a better consensus between West Palm and Vero

In b4 the euro says yeah right
 
Euro is a hair north may be zeroing in here

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Landfall West Palm Beach Early Tuesday Morning then a sharp turn NNW up the east coast of FL

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Weaker Landfall in SC at 168

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Starting to show the slow crawl north once inland
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Looks like LF Tues am and 24 hrs later still a hurricane over Mickey's house, dang

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It looks a little "ragged" on IR, still dealing with some shear and maybe even some dry air too.

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Looks like we keep seeing landfall near Jupiter and West Palm Beach, and then curving and going up the east coast. This is going to hit FL and then go back out and hit GA, SC, and NC. Looks like huge impact for all of FL and the coast from GA to SC.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Looks like we keep seeing landfall near Jupiter and West Palm Beach, and then curving and going up the east coast. This is going to hit FL and then go back out and hit GA, SC, and NC. Looks like huge impact for all of FL and the coast from GA to SC.
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Well it’s a little early to say this with any certainty. It could just as easily make landfall in central FL and remain over land for a long time, thus reducing the hurricane potential in GA/SC/N.C.
 
I think this has been mentioned but I wouldn't give much weight to the precipitation depictions if this emerges back off the coast. There are usually large pockets of moisture that become detached from the storm and since flooding will be the main concern any areas that are inundated prior to the actual storm arrival will be very prone to flood. gfs_z500a_us_30.png
 
I definitely think Dorian is trying to further intensify with those cold cloud tops that are firing all around the center. It's no linger just in one quadrant but two or three of the four. It also feels like he's slowing down to turn and is growing in size.
 
I'm throwing this recon reading out and I advise you do too. I don't care if its unflagged, that isn't realistic.

12700 2404N 06935W 6957 03005 9890 +081 +043 005077 081 177 063 00
 
sigwx said:
THAT IS WHERE MY MOTHER LIVES JUPITER. WHEN CAN I DEPENP ON A MODEL(S). I MAY NEED TO GO AND GET HER SOON. WHEN IS A GOOD TIME TO DEPEND ON THE MODELS. THANK YOU!!!
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Why not go get her now? Why mess around with Mother Nature? Positives-you don’t have to worry, she does not have to worry, you get to spend time with your mother who does not live close to you, etc. No need in discussing the negatives.
 
NW GA Fan said:
Why not go get her now? Why mess around with Mother Nature? Positives-you don’t have to worry, she does not have to worry, you get to spend time with your mother who does not live close to you, etc. No need in discussing the negatives.
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Yeah l know, l'm going down today it looks (as of now) she is in the path. She is packing now. Thank You!
 
Dorian is going to blow up big time if it is already near a cat 3. Still have a few days to go until it gets close to land.
 
ForsythSnow said:
I definitely think Dorian is trying to further intensify with those cold cloud tops that are firing all around the center. It's no linger just in one quadrant but two or three of the four. It also feels like he's slowing down to turn and is growing in size.
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I think the only thing holding it back any atm is the ULL over the Bahamas, it's still inducing some shear on the SW side but not for long...
 
Poimen said:
Well it’s a little early to say this with any certainty. It could just as easily make landfall in central FL and remain over land for a long time, thus reducing the hurricane potential in GA/SC/N.C.
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That is true. I think based on the models at this moment the most likely outcome is landfall in FL. After that there is still the question of does it go west into the Gulf, or does it curve NE?
 
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