pcbjr
Member
It's already gaining latitude and is forecast to gain more latitude than it looked just a day ago. The farther north it goes, the higher chance it has to be influenced by any trough present near the east coast. The WAR is forecast to build in and steer the system to the WNW/NW. As the west side of it erodes, the system will slow. My guess is that toughing will erode the ridge and influence the system more than currently modeled. I think it stalls off the coast and then moves OTS. It's a guess. We'll see.Based on what? Lol
100% Agree some models tend to downplay trough until we get closer.It's already gaining latitude and is forecast to gain more latitude than it looked just a day ago. The farther north it goes, the higher chance it has to be influenced by any trough present near the east coast. The WAR is forecast to build in and steer the system to the WNW/NW. As the west side of it erodes, the system will slow. My guess is that toughing will erode the ridge and influence the system more than currently modeled. I think it stalls off the coast and then moves OTS. It's a guess. We'll see.
I have mostly stayed out of this thread because I don't really have anything new to add. But my gut tells me this will miss the US. Also, I don't trust the Icon with tropical systems.
Dorian is right on the eastern most edge of the cone and may move just outside of it, continues to bust hard in the short term....
"It's already gaining latitude..."
What you describe we have seen so many, many times in the past. I hope it's true this time as well.
The CMC just like the ICON initialized way too weakCMC took a jump to the ICON. System further west is little better and sends the storm into the GOM.
Btw in the image I shared, note that is on the eastern most edge of the cone, to @Rain Cold point it continues to gain latitude. This delays it's arrival to the US and in turn could end up being a life saver, time will tell
I so hope you are right and the NHC adjusts its thinking accordingly.It's already gaining latitude and is forecast to gain more latitude than it looked just a day ago. The farther north it goes, the higher chance it has to be influenced by any trough present near the east coast. The WAR is forecast to build in and steer the system to the WNW/NW. As the west side of it erodes, the system will slow. My guess is that toughing will erode the ridge and influence the system more than currently modeled. I think it stalls off the coast and then moves OTS. It's a guess. We'll see.
I have to say no. Ridge is buffing, and this extreme of the cone is going to be eliminated within days is how I feel. I still feel a Frances-like track but a bit north is the way it'll play out.My Thinking from earlier this morning is becoming more confident we see a Floyd track. Floyd got within 50 miles of NE Florida, stalled crawled all the way up coast.
You can see the eye on radar now.. yikes
I'm with you.....and....we get to go back anf forth for days....I have to say no. Ridge is buffing, and this extreme of the cone is going to be eliminated within days is how I feel. I still feel a Frances-like track but a bit north is the way it'll play out.