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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

There have been references that the legacy GFS is still available. I use several model paywall sites and I don't think I have access.

Does anyone have a link to the legacy GFS to share?
 
NCHighCountryWX said:
There have been references that the legacy GFS is still available. I use several model paywall sites and I don't think I have access.

Does anyone have a link to the legacy GFS to share?
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It's still readily available, tropical tidbits has it as well as Pivotal and others.
 
NAM tends to overdo the pressure falls in tropical cyclones. That said the 12z run for the 3k NAM indicates an 887 MB hurricane creeping through the Bahamas toward South FL. We can take from runs like this that at the least Florida needs to prepare for a devastating storm.

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Long range NAM caveats...but Dorian's drifting southwest towards the end of the run.

honestly seems like if it were to eventually go north, that'd be the worse solution. Allows for more time to intensify over warm water.
 
The NAM has the storm turning SE even that last frame, looks to be setting up for a loop lol.....NAM is trash for tropics typically though...and I certainly would not put much stock in the NAM outside of 48 hrs with track at all.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Long range NAM caveats...but Dorian's drifting southwest towards the end of the run.

honestly seems like if it were to eventually go north, that'd be the worse solution. Allows for more time to intensify over warm water.
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Probably because he’s feeling more of the upper level steering as he gets deeper.

5cda97e66c18f6f991f0b917a77d8fe9.jpg



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As things are looking, it seems Gulf coast residents are by no means out of the woods yet, especially for the FL panhandle.

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metwannabe said:
And it has made up "lost ground" to the west, yesterday I mentioned 25N, 70W as a point of reference b/c ofc track and most modeling had it passing right over that point.... might actually go south of that now. Dang it, was hoping for slower which meant ots
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great observation! It almost appears to be moving in a very short term Westerly direction.
 
145103_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 69.8W
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
ABOUT 660 MI...1060 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES
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Snowfan said:
Sometime today.
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Yeah most likely later today or tonight... considering the potential dire situation that's about to unfold sooner rather than later would make sense.

From NHC:
By the end of
the forecast period, the ridge is forecast to erode and the
steering currents will weaken, resulting in Dorian slowing down
considerably near and over the Florida peninsula. This increases
the uncertainty in the track forecast during the 4- to -5 day
period, and also will lead to a prolonged duration of wind,
storm surge, and rainfall.

Any history of storms with this type of prolonged duration of hurricane conditions in Fl? Seems they usually just cross or skirt but rarely actually crawl the spine
 
metwannabe said:
Yeah most likely later today or tonight... considering the potential dire situation that's about to unfold sooner rather than later would make sense.

From NHC:
By the end of
the forecast period, the ridge is forecast to erode and the
steering currents will weaken, resulting in Dorian slowing down
considerably near and over the Florida peninsula. This increases
the uncertainty in the track forecast during the 4- to -5 day
period, and also will lead to a prolonged duration of wind,
storm surge, and rainfall.

Any history of storms with this type of prolonged duration of hurricane conditions in Fl? Seems they usually just cross or skirt but rarely actually crawl the spine
Click to expand...

This is actually a really good point. While anything could happen, history is more against the stall over FL outcome atleast in my memory. Odds do suggest it either go across or bounce up toward the Carolinas.
 
One thing that worries me is models are typically trash in the long range...we would normally be modeled an APPS runner after Florida. But no, it’s east. Kinda makes me wonder.
 
Goes from 140 down to 125 prior to landfall must be northerly shear?
 
NWTENN said:
View attachment 22431***Track from Tuesday***
It’s remarkable how little the landfall area has changed in 3 days!
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Frankly, I wouldn't call that remarkable. Considering the data from the models, and the issues in predictions, this is as good as it gets. It might verify and It might not. There are a great deal of unknowns....
 
metwannabe said:
Yeah most likely later today or tonight... considering the potential dire situation that's about to unfold sooner rather than later would make sense.

From NHC:
By the end of
the forecast period, the ridge is forecast to erode and the
steering currents will weaken, resulting in Dorian slowing down
considerably near and over the Florida peninsula. This increases
the uncertainty in the track forecast during the 4- to -5 day
period, and also will lead to a prolonged duration of wind,
storm surge, and rainfall.

Any history of storms with this type of prolonged duration of hurricane conditions in Fl? Seems they usually just cross or skirt but rarely actually crawl the spine
Click to expand...
That statement got my attention when I read discussion. They are giving thought to worse case in my opinion....
 
Something else to think about. If it does slow down near the southern FL coast, it will do so over the Gulf Stream with pretty high TCHP. Upwelling will not be an issue. That along with Florida being flat, should it reach Cat 4 or Cat 5, it could sustain that for a long while. That would put the northern eyewall onshore for hours before it makes landfall and starts losing some punch.
 
Arcc said:
This is actually a really good point. While anything could happen, history is more against the stall over FL outcome atleast in my memory. Odds do suggest it either go across or bounce up toward the Carolinas.
Click to expand...
Or bounce OTS, don't try to reflect it up this way....
 
Arcc said:
Something else to think about. If it does slow down near the southern FL coast, it will do so over the Gulf Stream with pretty high TCHP. Upwelling will not be an issue. That along with Florida being flat, should it reach Cat 4 or Cat 5, it could sustain that for a long while. That would put the northern eyewall onshore for hours before it makes landfall and starts losing some punch.
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This is why I feel like the rainfall potential map from the 11 AM advisory could be a conservative forecast.

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Looks like for now the NHC is going with it hitting FL and then turning NE up through the state and then GA, SC, and NC instead of continuing to go west and into the Gulf. This could end up wrecking almost the whole state of FL and doing serious damage to the coasts of GA, SC, and NC.
 
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