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Tropical Hurricane Dorian
- Thread starter RBR71
- Start date
While normally I’m against JB, that actually isn’t a bad call, neither is it going to Texas. A few more small changes and it will be.
Brent
Member
weathernerds is another good one if tidbits has issues(was getting some errors earlier when the Euro ran)
tidbits doesn't do well with high site traffic
Also, no matter what the 18z GFS does, we can easily still flip in the other direction. Just look at the last two days worth of runs. Back and forth we will go
That being said, we are getting closer to verification, so technically the runs should be getting more accurate
That being said, we are getting closer to verification, so technically the runs should be getting more accurate
Thor
Member
Looks like the ridge is retreating slightly this go round may allow for a bit more latitude gain
accu35
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Every run will be different from a few miles to hundreds
pcbjr
Member
5:00 AM tomorrow ...
A good thing to watch will be the 591dm height line on tidbits. The quicker/farther west the 591 line builds in the more likely we are to see a more pronounced westerly to possibly west south westerly track. As the trough moving into the east now quickly lifts over the weekend heights should build in the mid Atlantic into the SW Atlantic ocean. If the trough is slow to lift the tendency will be for a little more northerly track, if the ridging amplified quickly/strong the south track will be preferred. Really though its hard to argue against a just north of Miami back into the gulf and then a second landfall in the big bend area
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Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
That's what I'm seeing also and it's a touch East at hour 66 compared to 12Z.
Thor
Member
Interesting watching the big picture across the north Atlantic. Lots of players on the field that can drastically change the outcome
Latest recon data shows 993 mb.
138
URNT15 KWBC 282155
NOAA2 1105A DORIAN HDOB 11 20190828
214530 1822N 06523W 6956 03197 0094 +083 +078 247024 026 /// /// 03
214600 1824N 06523W 6952 03202 0092 +082 +080 250029 031 034 005 03
214630 1826N 06523W 6957 03187 0088 +080 //// 245035 041 037 007 01
214700 1828N 06523W 6952 03193 0083 +081 //// 262032 036 043 005 01
214730 1830N 06523W 6940 03204 0085 +080 //// 269033 037 042 005 01
214800 1833N 06523W 6956 03188 0081 +080 +080 276037 038 046 006 00
214830 1835N 06523W 6961 03167 0062 +087 +078 281041 042 051 003 00
214900 1837N 06523W 6966 03152 0052 +086 //// 276043 044 053 004 01
214930 1839N 06523W 6954 03155 0036 +089 //// 279048 052 057 007 01
215000 1841N 06522W 6956 03140 0019 +090 //// 274053 056 063 004 01
215030 1843N 06522W 6958 03125 0000 +095 //// 271044 047 063 003 01
215100 1845N 06522W 6960 03115 9973 +109 +089 258022 028 053 001 00
215130 1847N 06522W 6939 03133 9955 +119 +082 223018 020 033 000 00
215200 1849N 06522W 6968 03097 9944 +127 +081 185018 020 030 000 00
215230 1851N 06522W 6961 03104 9931 +137 +075 144019 020 033 000 00
215300 1853N 06522W 6962 03103 9936 +132 +082 130024 027 072 004 00
215330 1856N 06522W 6966 03111 9974 +108 +105 113046 061 072 019 03
215400 1858N 06522W 6851 03277 0004 +104 +080 096051 058 061 046 00
215430 1900N 06522W 6970 03145 0029 +100 +092 106053 056 054 022 00
215500 1902N 06522W 6956 03175 0053 +093 +092 106045 046 045 007 00
138
URNT15 KWBC 282155
NOAA2 1105A DORIAN HDOB 11 20190828
214530 1822N 06523W 6956 03197 0094 +083 +078 247024 026 /// /// 03
214600 1824N 06523W 6952 03202 0092 +082 +080 250029 031 034 005 03
214630 1826N 06523W 6957 03187 0088 +080 //// 245035 041 037 007 01
214700 1828N 06523W 6952 03193 0083 +081 //// 262032 036 043 005 01
214730 1830N 06523W 6940 03204 0085 +080 //// 269033 037 042 005 01
214800 1833N 06523W 6956 03188 0081 +080 +080 276037 038 046 006 00
214830 1835N 06523W 6961 03167 0062 +087 +078 281041 042 051 003 00
214900 1837N 06523W 6966 03152 0052 +086 //// 276043 044 053 004 01
214930 1839N 06523W 6954 03155 0036 +089 //// 279048 052 057 007 01
215000 1841N 06522W 6956 03140 0019 +090 //// 274053 056 063 004 01
215030 1843N 06522W 6958 03125 0000 +095 //// 271044 047 063 003 01
215100 1845N 06522W 6960 03115 9973 +109 +089 258022 028 053 001 00
215130 1847N 06522W 6939 03133 9955 +119 +082 223018 020 033 000 00
215200 1849N 06522W 6968 03097 9944 +127 +081 185018 020 030 000 00
215230 1851N 06522W 6961 03104 9931 +137 +075 144019 020 033 000 00
215300 1853N 06522W 6962 03103 9936 +132 +082 130024 027 072 004 00
215330 1856N 06522W 6966 03111 9974 +108 +105 113046 061 072 019 03
215400 1858N 06522W 6851 03277 0004 +104 +080 096051 058 061 046 00
215430 1900N 06522W 6970 03145 0029 +100 +092 106053 056 054 022 00
215500 1902N 06522W 6956 03175 0053 +093 +092 106045 046 045 007 00
Thor
Member
Ridge actually looks a bit stronger into the later frames but the orientation is a bit more flat. Should head pretty west you would think
ForsythSnow
Moderator
I think we are about to see Dorian undergo it's first RI within the next 24 hours. Large pressure drops are one of the key indicators. Set that as the base and let's wait for the next pass.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
So, the GFS initialized 10 MB too high.
Tidbits just crashed on me.
Looks like it ate a little bit of dry air in the SW eyewall may keep it at bay for a time
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Not liking the strengthening despite the ragged IR appearance.
accu35
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Me to
ForsythSnow
Moderator
It's not easy to get have a global model reflect the system given the grid spacing and the relatively steep pressure gradient in the system.
If you put the small center at the exact pressure you would probably end up with a micro cane that tried to fit the entire storm in one grid square or a system that was larger than reality as it tried to space the pressure fields
Unfortunately when you try to use a single point on a 9-12km grid square you are going to have issues. It's why you see much more widespread green on the models during the summer when you only get scattered storms
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Last edited:
pcbjr
Member
What do you expect when every person in the SE wants to download every increment and post it somewhere, without comment or explanation ....
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Yeah that means it's fighting to intensify. When the environment becomes favorable be on the lookout for it to jump a couple categories in 6 hours. It'll probably have an ERC then but still it's going to RI sooner or later. It definitely has a good core.
Thor
Member
accu35
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I expect what you expect lol. Brilliant minds think alike
pcbjr
Member
Absolutely horrible, and possible (though the southern solution makes more sense) ...
The GFS makes landfall as a Category 2 hurricane on the space coast and moves north into Georgia.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
If you're on PC, here's a reminder of another satellite view that has a lot more frames and can be run smoother, but isn't as fast as other sites.
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=1&im=60&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=30&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity[0]=1&hidden[0]=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=mesoscale_02&p[0]=band_13&x=640&y=953
You can also combine layers which I think is pretty cool.
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=1&im=60&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=30&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity[0]=1&hidden[0]=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=mesoscale_02&p[0]=band_13&x=640&y=953
You can also combine layers which I think is pretty cool.
Gfs is slowly getting stronger with the ridge to the north. Its concerning for you though that it hasn't jumped more quickly into more of the euro cmc camp with a stronger ridge
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That GFS run could have easily been a Carolina landfall with subtle changes based on how the coast is shaped and it wanting to go due north and stall. Interesting to see if the members show that or out to sea. I’m favoring the EURO right now tho.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
