Tropical Hurricane Dorian

[jackendrickwx]

Further north than 12z

 

[Arcc]

Further north than 12z

Not really, just a few hours faster.

Edit: NM looking at wrong frame.

 

[Webberweather53]

There's an upper level anticyclone over virtually the entire SW Atlantic by hr 96 on the ICON. If Dorian is a decent TC by then it may be undergoing rapid intensification.

 

[Webberweather53]

There's an upper level anticyclone over virtually the entire SW Atlantic by hr 96 on the ICON. If Dorian is a decent TC by then it may be undergoing rapid intensification.

View attachment 22114

It's also important to keep in mind that global models may be having trouble resolving Dorian's core by this point as a result of its small size and thus could be considerably stronger than shown...

 

[pcbjr]

A long wy to go and many variables ... don't put all the eggs in one basket ... yet ...

For example:

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/abrammer/maps/wmo/

and

 

[Arcc]

There's an upper level anticyclone over virtually the entire SW Atlantic by hr 96 on the ICON. If Dorian is a decent TC by then it may be undergoing rapid intensification.

View attachment 22114

Ouch is the word of choice.

 

[jackendrickwx]

Definitely faster and further north on ICON. its on course for miami

 

[Snowfan]

ICON:

 

[jackendrickwx]

ICON:

If this had been a 180hr run I would not be surprised if we had seen it pop out into the GOM and redevelop

 

[pcbjr]

We interrupt this program for a service announcement ... the source of all the maps and models I toss up here are also in Wiki, and you're invited to peruse them ...

 

[Arcc]

If this had been a 180hr run I would not be surprised if we had seen it pop out into the GOM and redevelop

Wouldn’t be long if it did. It is about to feel the tug of the trough on this run.

 

[Webberweather53]

GFS is further NE this run so far thru 24 hrs

 

[GaWx]

It looks like the 18Z GFS may come in further north because it is further northeast at hour 54. The northward trend seems to be holding. I personally don't like seeing this.

 

[pcbjr]

It looks like the 18Z GFS may come in further north because it is further northeast at hour 54. The northward trend seems to be holding. I personally don't like seeing this.

You should not like it ... still got reservations inland?

 

[Webberweather53]

Recon is taking off now, should have some new information on what's going on under the hood w/ Dorian shortly.

 

[pcbjr]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2019/DORIAN_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_with_line

 

[GaWx]

You should not like it ... still got reservations inland?

Yes and I'll continue to hold them.

 

[pcbjr]

Yes and I'll continue to hold them.

Good idea ... look at the trend on the run archive ...

 

[Webberweather53]

Fwiw, the happy hour legacy GFS makes Dorian a hurricane by 48 hours just north of Puerto Rico. This is considerably stronger than any model by this time

 

[BHS1975]

I think we’re about to see a massive change in the NHC forecast.


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