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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

18z HMON Dorian going Gulfbound after the center passes over Tampa, FL.
hmon_mslp_uv850_05L_41.png
 
Latest recon data has it down to 990 mb and has SFMR winds up to 72 knots.


777
URNT15 KNHC 282342
AF302 1205A DORIAN HDOB 15 20190828
233230 1907N 06534W 6976 03058 9916 +131 +017 007008 011 023 000 00
233300 1908N 06535W 6966 03068 9915 +130 +019 038014 016 027 000 00
233330 1910N 06535W 6970 03064 9905 +140 +020 054018 018 042 001 03
233400 1912N 06535W 6979 03060 9915 +138 +021 088024 026 070 006 03
233430 1913N 06537W 6963 03087 9924 +134 +023 081029 031 /// /// 03
233500 1913N 06539W 6960 03091 9941 +122 +024 055034 037 /// /// 03
233530 1911N 06539W 6981 03062 9927 +131 +026 027031 033 064 004 03
233600 1909N 06538W 6966 03075 9902 +145 +028 021026 031 029 000 03
233630 1908N 06537W 6973 03058 9906 +134 +030 008015 019 023 000 00
233700 1908N 06535W 6965 03064 9905 +132 +030 329008 011 023 000 00
233730 1907N 06533W 6967 03064 9911 +129 +030 204014 022 031 000 00
233800 1907N 06531W 6976 03060 9941 +111 +030 177031 035 055 002 00
233830 1908N 06529W 6956 03088 9958 +102 +030 167040 045 071 005 00
233900 1910N 06528W 6966 03083 9973 +096 +029 161053 061 072 015 03
233930 1912N 06528W 6961 03104 0034 +059 +027 147074 076 069 020 00
234000 1914N 06528W 6976 03096 0066 +045 +025 126064 072 061 034 03
234030 1916N 06528W 6980 03101 0058 +058 +023 122057 063 054 004 00
234100 1918N 06527W 6962 03130 0051 +073 +019 118049 054 054 002 00
234130 1919N 06526W 6971 03127 0055 +077 +016 127050 051 053 002 00
234200 1920N 06525W 6965 03142 0056 +081 +015 131050 051 052 003 00
$$
;
 
Snowfan said:
hwrf_ref_05L_30.png

HWRF is down to 918 mb.
Click to expand...

Fortunately, though I don’t think it is as bad as the GFS Legacy, my memory tells me that most HWRF runs end up quite a bit too strong. So, despite the then expected highly favorable conditions, keep in mind that 918 mb is very likely and hopefully overdone. Of course, a 20 mb weaker storm would still be 938 mb, an extremely dangerous storm.
 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 65.7W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM NNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES
Click to expand...
 
GaWx said:
Fortunately, though I don’t think it is as bad as the GFS Legacy, my memory tells me that most HWRF runs end up quite a bit too strong. So, despite the then expected highly favorable conditions, keep in mind that 918 mb is very likely and hopefully overdone. Of course, a 20 mb weaker storm would still be 938 mb, an extremely dangerous storm.
Click to expand...

The problem is it underforecasted the strength of Michael until the night before. The location of Dorian alone puts the ceiling higher and the possibility of a Cat 5 landfall than Michael.
 
In the HWRF run, it has it making landfall on the space coast as a Category 4 hurricane.
 
Arcc said:
The problem is it underforecasted the strength of Michael until the night before. The location of Dorian alone puts the ceiling higher and the possibility of a Cat 5 landfall than Michael.
Click to expand...

I don’t disagree. I’m just talking about how the model does in general. It USUALLY is quite a bit too strong. And fortunately cat 5s are pretty rare since conditions have to be near ideal for strengthening. So, although I won’t bet the ranch against a cat 5, I won’t bet on it either since they’re pretty rare. It probably wouldn’t need 918 mb to reach a 5. At this point, I’d bet on a cat 4 monster and hope it doesn’t reach 5. We’ll see.
 
Last edited:
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 29th day of the month at 0:01Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5302
Storm Number & Year: 05 in 2019
Storm Name: Dorian (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 12
Observation Number: 04

A. Time of Center Fix: 28th day of the month at 23:37:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 19.12N 65.56W
B. Center Fix Location: 59 statute miles (96 km) to the NE (34°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (U.S.).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 3,022m (9,915ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 992mb (29.30 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 150° at 27kts (From the SSE at 31mph)
F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 46kts (52.9mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 6 nautical miles to the SSW/SW (214°) of center fix at 23:31:00Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 316° at 46kts (From the NW at 52.9mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 6 nautical miles to the SSW/SW (214°) of center fix at 23:31:00Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 71kts (81.7mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 3 nautical miles to the E (83°) of center fix at 23:38:30Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 146° at 76kts (From between the SE and SSE at 87.5mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 6 nautical miles to the NE (46°) of center fix at 23:39:30Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,055m (10,023ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,045m (9,990ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 3°C (37°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 76kts (~ 87.5mph) which was observed 6 nautical miles to the NE (46°) from the flight level center at 23:39:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 15°C (59°F) which was observed 7 nautical miles to the WNW (288°) from the flight level center
General Note About Vortex Messages:
- Reported winds are usually averaged over a 10 second period. (The National Hurricane Center's advisory wind speeds are the highest expected winds averaged over a 1 minute period.)
 
Seems to me Dorian is realigning the moisture in it to more evenly distribute it around the eye. Definitely going to start intensifying when that completes. The eyewall is starting to shrink again. It likely expanded earlier due to some dry air.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Seems to me Dorian is realigning the moisture in it to more evenly distribute it around the eye. Definitely going to start intensifying when that completes. The eyewall is starting to shrink again. It likely expanded earlier due to some dry air.
Click to expand...
No doubt that eye is tightening up, gonna wake up in the morning to a blossoming monster I'm afraid... at this point prayer and EWRC only thing stopping it in the coming days
 
pcbjr said:
Gas and ice are gone ... folks honking car horns like it's the 2nd coming ... Publix is like a zoo ... heck, all I wanted was a deli sammmich
Click to expand...
Phil you need to come north, the north flank always has a space for those seeking refuge
 
metwannabe said:
No doubt that eye is tightening up, gonna wake up in the morning to a blossoming monster I'm afraid... at this point prayer and EWRC only thing stopping it in the coming days
Click to expand...
Only issue with ERC's is that they make the storm larger and allow it to carry more energy. That's how we ended up with Irma. She had ERC after ERC in the right place. It seemed like every 6 to 12 hours a new one would occur.
 
metwannabe said:
Phil you need to come north, the north flank always has a space for those seeking refuge
Click to expand...
Been thinking very long and hard about Waynesville ... but roots are so deep it's almost impossible to move the tree ... plus, what would I do without a wife who refuses to leave, or Gator football ... (wife does much better for me than Gators, btw) ...
 
GaWx said:
I don’t disagree. I’m just talking about how the model does in general. It USUALLY is quite a bit too strong. And fortunately cat 5s are pretty rare since conditions have to be near ideal for strengthening.So, although I won’t bet the ranch against a cat 5 though I won’t bet on it either since they’re pretty rare. It probably wouldn’t need 918 mb to reach a 5. At this point, I’d bet on a cat 4 monster and hope it doesn’t reach 5. We’ll see.
Click to expand...

I agree. Ive learned to never bet on any strength as too much can happen. That said, this is one of the times that the HWRF cannot be discounted.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Only issue with ERC's is that they make the storm larger and allow it to carry more energy. That's how we ended up with Irma. She had ERC after ERC in the right place. It seemed like every 6 to 12 hours a new one would occur.
Click to expand...
Yeah but if they occur at the right time they can at least slow intensification and especially as it approaches land.... looking for the silver lining. Not only am I concerned for Phil (and all those in it's path) but I have family in Jax and the Panhandle of Fl
 
Looking forward to see if models continue with this SW trend, end up shifting NE again like last night or if they start to solidify themselves.
 
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