Many showing the WSW turn.
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Tropical Hurricane Dorian
- Thread starter RBR71
- Start date
Many showing the WSW turn.
pcbjr
Member
That is perhaps the nicest post I've ever been a party to, here or at those other long forgotten places! Thanks! Think we'll be OK, but if all Hades breaks loose, I'll send out a shout!
Best and Thanks!
Phil
Love these maps from Allan, shows all model plots....
Good information here as well, time to ramp up the data collection....
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Up to 80mph, but the intensity forecast barely changes.
Is that just a little area of dry air or a actual eye tryna get going ? ? very tiny but it’s trying if it is 
NCSNOW
Member
Shaggy
Member
Yep if you look at radar it’s in about the same place
Eye but looks like some dry air intrusion from the south east hasn’t got to the center yet.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Possible it's both or either one. The radar is really filling in the eye wall now but still looks like dry air is getting in.
Cadi40
Member
Interested to see if the models start agree more or if another trend starts. Honestly at this point nothing would surprise me, we’re still at a point where there could be some dramatic changes regarding the track especially with the amount of variables steering this storm.
looked at a loop from radar scope and it almost looks like there some mesovortices in that eyewall getting going
On radar it looks like the center is taking a little north jump
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Henry2326
Member
That just about tells the story....what a mess.
SnowNotHappen
Member
18z ICON looks a bit more North, and perhaps the center has taken a little jump North?..
Note that the highest concentration of the strong nonrecurving members into FL of the 12Z EPS are those that move W or WSW toward S FL. Notice that those north of the black line are largely moving WNW and are weaker (green). That makes sense because those further south have a stronger ridge to the north thus providing more favorable conditions though I think the greens are too weak.
pcbjr
Member
Slightest tick south or more west at 5:00 ... bad for me (NE quad and all), but good if it signals a trend way south and to old Mexico ...
Cadi40
Member
On the radar It definitely looks more of a northerly track than a westerly one. Regardless of the track this will be an interesting storm to watch!
It's up now. has not reached the center yet though.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Eye starting to round off and clear up more.
Eye starting to round off and clear up more.
Looks like the eyewall is really starting to take shape, not as wobbly/raggedy/ugly , looks like it’s stabilizing
That look it’s giving ?, maybe it’s trying to start RI ?
pcbjr
Member
There are so many variables ... the jury is going to be asking for clarifying instructions all night long ...
Brent
Member
No words for this lol
pcbjr
Member
I do, but even George Carlin could not say them ...
ForsythSnow
Moderator
I saw that on Ryan Maue's twitter. That's a triple landfall and a sunshine state shredder. Not realistic but that's what the Euro member spat out.
GFS initializing too high with pressure
oop ? , but theres some dry air getting in there from the South 
Hey what was the cool website with infrared where you can track hurricanes and watch convection fire in the eyewall? I had a good one but I forgot what it was
Tidbits has IR
pcbjr
Member
Well, Bastardi likes south FL and into the Gulf, headed towards the general vicinity of NO ... guess it's time to generally dismiss that scenario ... or not ...
Well that is the Mean so it’s very skewed which is why it’s kind of unrealistic.
Cool. Found it. Thanks