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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

Cloud tops are warming so continued weakening at this time... if the core isn't really disrupted and shear still remains fairly light there is still potential for intensification (not Cat 4 imo) especially since the gulf stream is in it's path.
 
metwannabe said:
Looks like EPS slight westward shift, @KyloG will show the trend gifs soon I'm sure, I'm not that savvy... Lol

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Also notice that most of the offshore tracks have Dorian much stronger than he is now and holds that all the way up, the higher pressure/weaker tracks are much more in line with what the ICON and GFS show with most of those on or just inland the NC coast....
 
SCWXGuy said:
I agree with this. Here in CHS I don't know anyone leaving and the sentiment is there will be beach erosion and flooding downtown, but that is about it. The storm isn't even coming up in conversation much. It was quiet for sure around town yesterday but I think most prepared earlier in the weekend. I was at Harris Teeter near Folly Beach and in Mt Pleasant yesterday as well as Target. Few shoppers and plenty of supplies.

Channel 2 this morning is showing maps that depict the probability of TS and Hurricane winds. They are praising the Euro and showing the storm will be well offshore but the wind field will expand. Even so, they've shown graphics with a 30% chance of hurricane force winds up to 80 MPH on the immediate coast/beaches only with scattered power outages a "possibility" and 4-7 feet of max storm surge in worst case scenario.

TBH, at least they are probably being realistic in the forecast if it holds, but if it changes there is going to be a mad dash for the exits. I'd say cautious optimism is appropriate at the moment for here.
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Channel 2 was basically parroting what's on NOAA's site. I had it open yesterday evening while the news was on and it was identical.

I'm in an older neighborhood in West Ashley that grazes the 100 year floodplain at its lowest to well into zone X at the highest. Yesterday exactly three houses had boards or metal shutters up and everyone seems to still be here. I'll count again on my way back from an appointment downtown with an attorney at noon.

We still plan on sticking around unless things change. There's plenty of supplies, the lowest parts of the back yard are at the border of the 500 year floodplain, and there are no trees within striking distance except for an 80' tall one in a neighboring yard that could possibly graze the place if it were uprooted and fell in exactly the right direction. There are still plenty of supplies at the Publix on Sam Ritt / Old Towne and no trouble finding gas either.
 
metwannabe said:
Looks like EPS slight westward shift, @KyloG will show the trend gifs soon I'm sure, I'm not that savvy... Lol

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Anyone who has access, can they fill us in on what's happening with the trof/ridging on the ridiculous inland member? I think it's unlikely, but with the other members shifting it could be hinting at something further up stream.

Also, if that crazy member were to happen, it'd be complete chaos in FL.
 
Shawn said:
Anyone who has access, can they fill us in on what's happening with the trof/ridging on the ridiculous inland member? I think it's unlikely, but with the other members shifting it could be hinting at something.
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If that actually verifies we should just stop modeling and watch radar instead...agree....might be telling "go west"....literally.
 
Henry2326 said:
If that actually verifies we should just stop modeling and watch radar instead...
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Yeah, I'm just interested in if it's a warning shot since the other members and what looks like the GEFS members are starting to shift West at this point.
 
Shawn said:
Yeah, I'm just interested in if it's a warning shot since the other members and what looks like the GEFS members are starting to shift West at this point.
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I agree with ya 100%.....I've been waiting for the unexpected compared to the models.
 
My buddy as his wife live on James Island in Charleston and they are not leaving. I can’t say I blame him. They didn’t leave for Mathew either. He said it was “a little breezy and wet” but that’s about it. ??‍♂️
 
The eye is much larger now, expect this thing to grow in size as time goes on... should keep intensification somewhat in check too
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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
My buddy as his wife live on James Island in Charleston and they are not leaving. I can’t say I blame him. They didn’t leave for Mathew either. He said it was “a little breezy and wet” but that’s about it. ??‍♂️
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Yeah, I can't remember which was which but two of them were windy and rainy (nothing severe in my area though), the other one we had a trace of rain and it was otherwise sunny and breezy that day. That was the one that caused trouble in NC and lots of problems for people caught in it who were trying to come back home.
 
This is the furthest west Ive seen on recent models since Midnight. 6z GFS Legacy. See where the trends take us today.

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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
My buddy as his wife live on James Island in Charleston and they are not leaving. I can’t say I blame him. They didn’t leave for Mathew either. He said it was “a little breezy and wet” but that’s about it. ??‍♂️
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He will get notice before/if they close the bridge....he should keep an eye out so he doesn't get stuck....
 
Henry2326 said:
He will get notice before/if they close the bridge....he should keep an eye out so he doesn't get stuck....
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Do they close the bridge on Folly Road? I thought the rule was 40mph / bridge is 65' or higher = closed, and the one over the Stono there wasn't that high. They'd definitely close the one at John's Island because that one meets the height requirement.
 
packfan98 said:
FWIW, the 12z NAM is very similar to 6z except that it's 3 hours slower.
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Looking at the maps, is the trof slower or flatter (the second one)? And is the ridging trying to bridge over stronger? I'm very worried about some of these ensemble members and it sucks I can't dig into it right now, lol.
 
Ser Pounce said:
Do they close the bridge on Folly Road? I thought the rule was 40mph / bridge is 65' or higher = closed, and the one over the Stono there wasn't that high. They'd definitely close the one at John's Island because that one meets the height requirement.
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I'm not sure...
 
Quickly glancing at the NAM, it looks like the ridging may be a tad stronger for longer.. ugh
 
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