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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

Henry2326 said:
I think you and I just provided words and visuals to the same thing... :)
Great minds think alike....

The HWRF says it should be moving by noon today. Any slower and well....you know the drill
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What is the minimum mph considered to be enough to meet the "moving" criteria?

Is there a certain location that it needs to be at by a certain time to make everything work with the various influences that the models are using?
 
SC_Wildcat said:
Yeah when the media pretty much gave the collective ok many quit paying attention from what I've seen locally.
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I agree with this. Here in CHS I don't know anyone leaving and the sentiment is there will be beach erosion and flooding downtown, but that is about it. The storm isn't even coming up in conversation much. It was quiet for sure around town yesterday but I think most prepared earlier in the weekend. I was at Harris Teeter near Folly Beach and in Mt Pleasant yesterday as well as Target. Few shoppers and plenty of supplies.

Channel 2 this morning is showing maps that depict the probability of TS and Hurricane winds. They are praising the Euro and showing the storm will be well offshore but the wind field will expand. Even so, they've shown graphics with a 30% chance of hurricane force winds up to 80 MPH on the immediate coast/beaches only with scattered power outages a "possibility" and 4-7 feet of max storm surge in worst case scenario.

TBH, at least they are probably being realistic in the forecast if it holds, but if it changes there is going to be a mad dash for the exits. I'd say cautious optimism is appropriate at the moment for here.
 
SCWXGuy said:
I agree with this. Here in CHS I don't know anyone leaving and the sentiment is there will be beach erosion and flooding downtown, but that is about it. The storm isn't even coming up in conversation much. It was quiet for sure around town yesterday but I think most prepared earlier in the weekend. I was at Harris Teeter near Folly Beach and in Mt Pleasant yesterday as well as Target. Few shoppers and plenty of supplies.

Channel 2 this morning is showing maps that depict the probability of TS and Hurricane winds. They are praising the Euro and showing the storm will be well offshore but the wind field will expand. Even so, they've shown graphics with a 30% chance of hurricane force winds up to 80 MPH on the immediate coast/beaches only with scattered power outages a "possibility" and 4-7 feet of max storm surge in worst case scenario.

TBH, at least they are probably being realistic in the forecast if it holds, but if it changes there is going to be a mad dash for the exits.
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Just insane,,,,,
 
Bryce- @Midlands_Wx said:
I think the people down here in the CHS area are taking this lightly... Maybe it won't be bad here?
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That is the current sentiment from the CHS media and as you are also observing the same I am here. I am choosing to remain at this time as well but all preparations are done and I'm tracking this hourly and prepared to leave at moments notice if necessary.
 
snowlover91 said:
No words.
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So please do not think I'm sick in the head, but do we have a separate thread or do we need a separate thread for damage reports/ground observations such as this. This is going to be a historic hurricane in more ways than one.
 
SCWXGuy said:
That is the current sentiment from the CHS media and as you are also observing the same I am here. I am choosing to remain at this time as well but all preparations are done and I'm tracking this hourly and prepared to leave at moments notice if necessary.
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I live down here on the intercoastal (Wadamalaw R), near Meggett/Yonges Island area... Worried about surge here. Just had a new dock built too.
 
Breslau said:
What is the minimum mph considered to be enough to meet the "moving" criteria?

Is there a certain location that it needs to be at by a certain time to make everything work with the various influences that the models are using?
Click to expand...
By noon HWRF has it at 948 pressure and directly north of the island. If it pulls west, well you know....
 
Never bet against significant weakening of a strong storm when there is a long period of very slow movement due to
the cooling of the ocean. Look on this image how much cooling occurred at/near Grand Bahama, down to only 22 C, which is only 72 F after being near 30 C or 86 F before the storm! Strong hurricanes are so strong because there is an enormous amount of energy that is converted from the potential energy of very warm water to the wind energy of storms. Conservation of energy principle means that the gains in energy in one entity (storm) are met with a reduction in energy in the entity from where the energy is coming (warm water). So, the water over which it travels has to cool. Check out the image below. The coolest color (shade of green) is actually way down into the 20-21 C (68-70 F) range (6th shade of green) near and just south of Grand Bahama Island. Also, note that the first green shade extends a good 75 or so miles north, which is where the 26 C (79 F) isotherm reaches. So, tremendous cooling has occurred! Hopefully he won’t restrengthen much as he gets out of the cooler waters to the north though he may some once this weakening bottoms out:
29D32466-F208-4983-9D8D-B1954A66361F.png
 
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Brick Tamland said:
Not looking good for the NC coast. It could ride up the entire coastline.
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Yeah there are fewer members that miss the coast entirely on the 06z eps, let's see how he moves today and what if any effect that will have on later model output.
 
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