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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

Brick Tamland said:
Why? Because the models say so now? The same ones that had it going into the Gulf a couple of days ago? You think they are right now, though, this far out? I don't get how people can forget how we have seen the models do this before with the track, going from one extreme to the next, and it end up adjusting more the closer we get to the middle. Way too premature to say it is going out to sea.
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Brick, models have more skill the closer they get. So saying they had it in the gulf a coupe days ago is completely different.
 
ICON is further S of the last run and it is actually stalling off the south Florida coast.
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And here we go again. Even on the current NHC track, it would be 5 days until it gets close to landfall. A long way to go until then to see if it hits or misses to the east. Or it could change and still go west like the Icon is showing now.
 
I'm a bit surprised the NHC shifted the forecast line as much off shore of SC as they did for the 11am update. I was expecting a subtle adjustment or not much change. Well aware it's very much an educated guess still.

I went out to make a few final trips to the store and fill the last of my gas cans and it is very orderly here in central Mt Pleasant near the IOP connector. People are in good spirits and seems everyone is well aware of the storm.

Hopefully this rain moves out as we want to go to the beach again before the storm. It may get bad erosion even with an offshore track. Matthew and Irma made a big mess of IOP and it took months to restore the beaches both times. At least they really built up the dune this last time.
 
pcbjr said:
just for the sake of argument, if ... if ... that were to happen, every model run for the last 10 days could be tossed ... because if ... if ... that were to happen, the entire dynamic set up (troughs, ridges, steering currents, SST due to upwelling ...) would have changed considerably ...
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Last night when I was watching him, he was moving 14 mph for 6 hours (0.20 long/hr)(faster than fcast) and I was starting to get a little more concerned for the stall happening further west and thus maybe put FL back in danger. However, the really good news is that he has slowed considerably since and has moved only .13 long/hr the last 3 hours/9 mph). The slower it moves, the further east will be the expected stall and the less threat to FL.
Another thing to note is that the stall, even with it near the Gulf stream, may still cool the SSTs enough to weaken him. Keep in mind that cooling from churning is not just around the center. At some point, the overall SSTs in and near the storm cooling should help weaken him some while stalled. Then once he starts moving again, he may restrengthen some. My guess is that the peak strength will be today or tomorrow. The NHC prog sort of reflects this.
 
GaWx said:
Last night when I was watching him, he was moving 14 mph for 6 hours (0.20 long/hr)(faster than fcast) and I was starting to get a little more concerned for the stall happening further west and thus maybe put FL back in danger. However, the really good news is that he has slowed considerably since and has moved only .13 long/hr the last 3 hours/9 mph). The slower it moves, the further east will be the expected stall and the less threat to FL.
Another thing to note is that the stall, even with it near the Gulf stream, may still cool the SSTs enough to weaken him. Keep in mind that cooling from churning is not just around the center. At some point, the overall SSTs in and near the storm cooling should help weaken him some while stalled. Then once he starts moving again, he may restrengthen some. My guess is that the peak strength will be today or tomorrow. The NHC prog sort of reflects this.
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Thanks Larry! My point was a very big "if ... if" and not to suggest a 30 hour stall is in the cards ...

... anymore than I would suggest this is a "solution" ...
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