• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Hurricane Dorian

SD said:
All I'm saying is when you take a hurricane from the mouth of the cape fear to morehead city that's generally a recipe for 40-50 mph gusts in our area.

As for east vs west, I'm favoring west its hard to imagine a storm getting west of 75 and not hitting the nc coast

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
If the wind field expands it certainly can be very problematic, Irene good example of that.... it may have just scraped the OBX but Roanoke Rapids was without power in places for a week. It also was a slow mover, 18 hrs of 50 mph winds will do that...
 
SD said:
All I'm saying is when you take a hurricane from the mouth of the cape fear to morehead city that's generally a recipe for 40-50 mph gusts in our area.

As for east vs west, I'm favoring west its hard to imagine a storm getting west of 75 and not hitting the nc coast

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
I hear ya. I don't disagree with the synoptics... just pointing out some observations I have made over the last couple of years. I have felt like the Euro has a wind bias. I may be wrong, though.
 
One important piece of the puzzle will be the Evolution of the Atlantic High off the coast. Notice Below Around the Carribean The High pressure at H5 is tilted negatively as Dorian hovers around the Bahamas moving WNW. GFS 500 mb 1.png
This should cause Dorian to move NW on a track towards the Carolinas. As the storm moves closer the HP should tilt positively, steering the storm OTS.
GFS 500mb 2.png
What we need to watch closely is how fast the low moves and how quickly the High goes negatively to positive.
1. The faster the storm the closer to the coast Dorian gets before moving NE. The slower the better, however, the trend has not been our friend
2. The Slower the HP goes to positive the further inland to the coast the storm will get. Compared the 00z the HP has tilted faster. (See below)
3. The weaker the HP or further east It gets will most likely further OTS. Therefore the more difficult It will be for the storm to move inland.GFS 500mb 3.png
Several runs ago we had the HP very flat longer, causing the storm to go due west into FL, moving east quickly shifting positive. The trend has been a slower shift, which is why I expect more future runs to correct west.

Bottom line: won't take much of small upper-level changes to be a big Impact for the Carolinas, which is concerning. However, on the bright side, It also won't take much to go OTS
 
Last edited:
Starting to get worried about the Carolinas now. The models continue to adjust, but I think we have seen these wild swings before, with hurricane tracks and winter storms, where they start one direction, then go the complete opposite, and then end up somewhere in between. The models at first were going west, taking Dorian into Florida and the Gulf. Yesterday they started going north and east, the complete opposite, taking it out to sea. Today we are seeing some adjustments back west, and putting the Carolinas in play. This is the way it always seems to be, going from one end to the other, and eventually meeting in the middle.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Starting to get worried about the Carolinas now. The models continue to adjust, but I think we have seen these wild swings before, with hurricane tracks and winter storms, where they start one direction, then go the complete opposite, and then end up somewhere in between. The models at first were going west, taking Dorian into Florida and the Gulf. Yesterday they started going north and east, the complete opposite, taking it out to sea. Today we are seeing some adjustments back west, and putting the Carolinas in play. This is the way it always seems to be, going from one end to the other, and eventually meeting in the middle.
Click to expand...

Feeling the same way, tension is rising and it's still multiple days away which is good and bad. Good because there is still time to prepare, bad is we still don't know where the hell this thing is going to end up
 
I personally haven't seen any adjustments back west however do expect some. This truly is a very complicated forecast and honestly all scenarios are on the table at this point in time.
 
I’m not seeing the adjustments west. Plenty of time for the stall and sharp north movement. Watch out coastal areas of the Carolinas it’s fairly good agreement for nasty weather.
 
The models do not have the skill to get the track of Dorian right off the Carolina coast yet, differences of 50-75 miles one way or the other is the difference between landfall somewhere around SC/NC border and missing the coast....the models are not able to get the trough/ridge interaction right to that level of accuracy for the middle of next week yet, if Sunday night into Monday they all agree on a hit will I begin to worry....
 
Floyd Track boys,telling u. Just want be as slow across eastern NC
 
Allan Huffman out with a bold forecast. Solidly east of SC and even further east of the OBX.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top