Might also be the blowup of convection in its western side acting to maybe give it that little SW push, almost like a seesaw in a way
I agree, but I think the biggest thing for me is look how much more of an almost slight dip SW toward FL in the shorter term. I saw the 0z EPS doing that as well.
agreed! I am still torn on this one. I could see a couple of different outcomes.folks who have decided an eventual outcome are silly ...
read between the lines ... so can the NHC for now ...agreed! I am still torn on this one. I could see a couple of different outcomes.
I've noticed that the Euro overdoes winds, both sustained and gusts. Even so, I still think this misses east. Maybe we get a little breezy with some high clouds -- a nice autumn day.Euro has 50mph gusts back to myself, rain cold and metwannabe 40 to the rdu airport and we keep those for about 12 hours. Wind gusts along the coast of well over 100 mph. Ouch
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Yeah looks a lot like the 0z eps, I was comparing it to the 18z in my previous post.....doofus me. Lol
I didn’t want to be the bearer of bad news by saying it last night, but I have been concerned that we might get some shift corrections back west. How much? I don’t know, enough to have a landfall somewhere along the SE coast regardless. My confidence is still low, but I’m still in the camp that Dorian will make an “official” landfall somewhere rather than outright OTS if it maintains or gains forward speed today that’s gonna be a problem.06z EPS shifts west, mean still offshore but this isn't settled by no means....
Euro looks pretty spot on when looking at previous hurricanes in a similar location.Definitely overdone, I would expect the wind to be much weaker inland than modeled.
All I'm saying is when you take a hurricane from the mouth of the cape fear to morehead city that's generally a recipe for 40-50 mph gusts in our area.I've noticed that the Euro overdoes winds, both sustained and gusts. Even so, I still think this misses east. Maybe we get a little breezy with some high clouds -- a nice autumn day.