Tropical Hurricane Dorian

[Myfrotho704_]

Might also be the blowup of convection in its western side acting to maybe give it that little SW push, almost like a seesaw in a way

 

[deltadog03]

06z Euro still excruciatingly slow

View attachment 22585

I agree, but I think the biggest thing for me is look how much more of an almost slight dip SW toward FL in the shorter term. I saw the 0z EPS doing that as well.

 

[deltadog03]

folks who have decided an eventual outcome are silly ...

agreed! I am still torn on this one. I could see a couple of different outcomes.

 

[pcbjr]

agreed! I am still torn on this one. I could see a couple of different outcomes.

read between the lines ... so can the NHC for now ...

 

[Rain Cold]

Euro has 50mph gusts back to myself, rain cold and metwannabe 40 to the rdu airport and we keep those for about 12 hours. Wind gusts along the coast of well over 100 mph. Ouch

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I've noticed that the Euro overdoes winds, both sustained and gusts. Even so, I still think this misses east. Maybe we get a little breezy with some high clouds -- a nice autumn day.

 

[Metwannabe]

06z EPS shifts west, mean still offshore but this isn't settled by no means....

I will say there is less spread though

edit: Instead of deleting I will just edit to say I mistakenly compared it to the 18z eps, it did shift west from that but overall very similar to the 0z eps.

 

[Ethan80963]

 

[mrdaddyman]

06Z EPS still mainly off shore:

 

[Metwannabe]

06Z EPS still mainly off shore:

View attachment 22588

Yeah looks a lot like the 0z eps, I was comparing it to the 18z in my previous post.....doofus me. Lol

 

[KyloG]

This isn't the Euro from our youth...this is Florence last year inside 60 hours.

UK v/s Euro. Uk was pretty much dead on.

 

[Weatherlover92]

06z EPS shifts west, mean still offshore but this isn't settled by no means....

I didn’t want to be the bearer of bad news by saying it last night, but I have been concerned that we might get some shift corrections back west. How much? I don’t know, enough to have a landfall somewhere along the SE coast regardless. My confidence is still low, but I’m still in the camp that Dorian will make an “official” landfall somewhere rather than outright OTS if it maintains or gains forward speed today that’s gonna be a problem.

 

[Metwannabe]

Well the good news is the NHC is on the western side of guidance, so probably expect to see continued adjustments east with their track.... but let's see what today brings.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

06Z EPS still mainly off shore:

View attachment 22588

Still hate that models are initializing pressure to high, this could still affect things

 

[Metwannabe]

Looks like it's starting to slow down.....maybe

 

[SD]

Definitely overdone, I would expect the wind to be much weaker inland than modeled.

Euro looks pretty spot on when looking at previous hurricanes in a similar location.

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[Raine1963]

Models are great for predictions and preparation, but a hurricane has a mind of its own. You should never let your guard down.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[SD]

I've noticed that the Euro overdoes winds, both sustained and gusts. Even so, I still think this misses east. Maybe we get a little breezy with some high clouds -- a nice autumn day.

All I'm saying is when you take a hurricane from the mouth of the cape fear to morehead city that's generally a recipe for 40-50 mph gusts in our area.

As for east vs west, I'm favoring west its hard to imagine a storm getting west of 75 and not hitting the nc coast

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[KyloG]

Is some similarities between this past hurricane and Dorian. If the trough to the north slowed and was a little further west.

 

[Metwannabe]

Starting to look more symmetrical with cooling cloud tops.... it's a beast