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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

Yeah I can officially hear the wind inside now so thats sorta of hurricane threshold number 1, shot a quick video before it got too dark, nothing special maybe gusting into the low to mid 30's, low levels though really have picked up over the last hr or so which is why the winds are coming up....I will compare it to the one I get at dawn when we should be at or near our peak conditions whatever that ends up being...

 
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Still meh just west of Greenville. Over 2" in the gauge, also some thunder.
 
Getting pretty rough along the Brunswick beaches now
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Sctvman said:
Literally nothing is open at all on James Island other than Bojangles. Damage is probably the worst since Hurricane Hugo on the island.
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Crazy, I'm just up and across from The Citadel and it really hasn't been much of a big deal. A lot of us in the immediate area don't have trees within striking distance of houses or power lines though, and from what I heard a bunch of neighborhoods off Orange Grove west of Sam Ritt will be without power for a while.
 
Bald head is what I've been watching as far as the storms path and looks like it will be right on the mark. Models didn't do too bad in this spot but obviously they were jumpy as well. goes16_ir_05L_201909052322.jpg
From Sep 1st
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As these embedded heavy areas between Smithfield and Greenville rotate into parts of the triangle over the next hour we may see an uptick in the gusts
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HRRR is too far south with the center on the first frame of the latest run, if you correct that to where it actually is and then run the same track it would bring the center on or just north of the NHC track....something to watch....

whatitdo said:
What time are we thinking peak wind gusts will hit greenville area?
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Worse for Pitt Co and Greenville should be 3am-9am ish....probably will start getting some bonafide TS gust into the 40-50 range around midnight if the models are right.
 
Yep. The big damage here on James Island was that part of the roof of a church was taken off (Holy City Church) on Fort Johnson Rd. I’ve been out of power since 3:20am this morning.
 

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What is it about hurricanes hitting NC at night? It seems almost all the ones that make landfall here do it at night.
 
Brick Tamland said:
What is it about hurricanes hitting NC at night? It seems almost all the ones that make landfall here do it at night.
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Florence was nice enough to stay for several nights. But I get your point both Florence and Irene made landfall early morning time meaning conditions really deteriorated overnight.
 
down to 100(Florence was 90)

...EYEWALL OF DORIAN VERY NEAR CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.4N 78.0W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM S OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM KM S OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES
 
Sharp precip gradient down the US1 corridor, just passed 2 inches imby 40 miles west a trace

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Brick Tamland said:
What is it about hurricanes hitting NC at night? It seems almost all the ones that make landfall here do it at night.
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Luckily for me anyways the peak should be around dawn into the morning so I hopefully will be able to see some of those 60-70 mph gust should I actually get them.
 
Airport just gusted 45, power flickering, heard my first transformer pop.....conditions getting rough, not sure why though watching Jim Cantore 35 miles from the center and its not as windy there as it is here it seems lol.....however if that eyewall gets to them I am sure they get 60-70...
 
Downeastnc said:
Airport just gusted 45, power flickering, heard my first transformer pop.....conditions getting rough, not sure why though watching Jim Cantore 35 miles from the center and its not as windy there as it is here it seems lol.....however if that eyewall gets to them I am sure they get 60-70...
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Looks like a pretty good area of 40+ gusts right now with Smithfield and Pope AFB above 40

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Well, I sure am glad that Dorian is over for me here in CHS. Lost power around 11:55pm last night, probably won't see it back on for a good while. Lots of trees down on lines over my way. Crews have a lot of clean up work to do. Had to cut a tree out of my driveway so that I could go look at other damage. My neighbor's dock had the railings blown off of it... Flooding wasn't a major issue down my way, but travel into the city and it was a whole different ball game... Glad that it's over, and we have a wonderful weekend on tap down here in the Holy City. Might even get some fishin' in ;)... To my NC friends, I wish yall the best with Dorian.
 
Bryce- @Midlands_Wx said:
Well, I sure am glad that Dorian is over for me here in CHS. Lost power around 11:55pm last night, probably won't see it back on for a good while. Lots of trees down on lines over my way. Crews have a lot of clean up work to do. Had to cut a tree out of my driveway so that I could go look at other damage. My neighbor's dock had the railings blown off of it... Flooding wasn't a major issue down my way, but travel into the city and it was a whole different ball game... Glad that it's over, and we have a wonderful weekend on tap down here in the Holy City. Might even get some fishin' in ;)... To my NC friends, I wish yall the best with Dorian.
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Glad you're OK, and the positive attitude you espouse speaks volumes about character ... love your town by the way! Best! Phil
 
Downeastnc said:
Airport just gusted 45, power flickering, heard my first transformer pop.....conditions getting rough, not sure why though watching Jim Cantore 35 miles from the center and its not as windy there as it is here it seems lol.....however if that eyewall gets to them I am sure they get 60-70...
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It’s part of the transition in the wind field. HRRR is nasty for the early morning.

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At the 9pm NHC update:

A buoy at Frying Pan Shoals, North Carolina, located in the eastern portion of the Dorian's eye, recently measured a pressure of 959.8 mb

Pressure was 964mb at 8pm.
 
Ok, this is going to be a weenie post so fair warning. But watching this thing bounce off the coast several times has to make you question the impacts of land on the directions of the cyclone. Are we to believe that there was some little vort that kicked it hard right just as it was approaching Georgetown, then another one again at Cape Fear? To be clear, I am not complaining at all. I have friends who have property in coastal SC and NC, so reallyglad for them it has stayed off shore. But for this thing to behave the way it has today, there has to be more at play than just troughs and ridges. 80W might be a thing too ...
 
Nomanslandva said:
Ok, this is going to be a weenie post so fair warning. But watching this thing bounce off the coast several times has to make you question the impacts of land on the directions of the cyclone. Are we to believe that there was some little vort that kicked it hard right just as it was approaching Georgetown, then another one again at Cape Fear? To be clear, I am not complaining at all. I have friends who have property in coastal SC and NC, so reallyglad for them it has stayed off shore. But for this thing to behave the way it has today, there has to be more at play than just troughs and ridges. 80W might be a thing too ...
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I think there is evidence to suggest that near-shore friction is a thing with cyclones running roughly parallel to the shore. We saw it for a while with Florence last year, if memory serves. I don't think this one is going to make landfall. If it does, I feel like it would most likely be around Cape Hatteras.
 
Rain Cold said:
I think there is evidence to suggest that near-shore friction is a thing with cyclones running roughly parallel to the shore. We saw it for a while with Florence last year, if memory serves. I don't think this one is going to make landfall. If it does, I feel like it would most likely be around Cape Hatteras.
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00Z HRRR would agree and seems to actually wrap around Hatteras a bit before it takes of OTS. Oh yea, I have a kid in SE VA so the farther OTS the better for her!
 
It was not that bad at all in SAV, thank goodness! Highest inland gusts were near 50 & I got only ~1.25”. I lost power for only an hour. Storm surge peak for low areas wasn’t bad either because it was only 3.5’ and that at low tide! We were blessed here.
 
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From met Greg Fishel.

Winds may be stronger on back side of Dorian than front side!

National Weather Service Doppler Radar in Wilmington is showing stronger winds on the back side of Dorian as opposed to the front side. This was actually observed when the center went close to a buoy just southeast of Charleston, SC earlier today. That could increase the threat of soundside flooding for those of you that are concerned about that. Still no gusts in Wilmington over about 52 or 53 mph. That may be about as strong as they get on the front side as the center is staying far enough east so as to not give us much more than that. It will be interesting to see if during the wee hours of the morning we experience our strongest winds. You know I'm gonna stay up and see!
 
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