Cloud tops are warming so continued weakening at this time... if the core isn't really disrupted and shear still remains fairly light there is still potential for intensification (not Cat 4 imo) especially since the gulf stream is in it's path.
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Tropical Hurricane Dorian
- Thread starter RBR71
- Start date
Downeastnc
Member
Also notice that most of the offshore tracks have Dorian much stronger than he is now and holds that all the way up, the higher pressure/weaker tracks are much more in line with what the ICON and GFS show with most of those on or just inland the NC coast....
Ser Pounce
Member
Channel 2 was basically parroting what's on NOAA's site. I had it open yesterday evening while the news was on and it was identical.
I'm in an older neighborhood in West Ashley that grazes the 100 year floodplain at its lowest to well into zone X at the highest. Yesterday exactly three houses had boards or metal shutters up and everyone seems to still be here. I'll count again on my way back from an appointment downtown with an attorney at noon.
We still plan on sticking around unless things change. There's plenty of supplies, the lowest parts of the back yard are at the border of the 500 year floodplain, and there are no trees within striking distance except for an 80' tall one in a neighboring yard that could possibly graze the place if it were uprooted and fell in exactly the right direction. There are still plenty of supplies at the Publix on Sam Ritt / Old Towne and no trouble finding gas either.
pcbjr
Member
sentiment shared ...
Henry2326
Member
I believe we have a potential situation....
Anyone who has access, can they fill us in on what's happening with the trof/ridging on the ridiculous inland member? I think it's unlikely, but with the other members shifting it could be hinting at something further up stream.
Also, if that crazy member were to happen, it'd be complete chaos in FL.
Henry2326
Member
If that actually verifies we should just stop modeling and watch radar instead...agree....might be telling "go west"....literally.
Yeah, I'm just interested in if it's a warning shot since the other members and what looks like the GEFS members are starting to shift West at this point.
Henry2326
Member
I agree with ya 100%.....I've been waiting for the unexpected compared to the models.
My buddy as his wife live on James Island in Charleston and they are not leaving. I can’t say I blame him. They didn’t leave for Mathew either. He said it was “a little breezy and wet” but that’s about it. ??
The eye is much larger now, expect this thing to grow in size as time goes on... should keep intensification somewhat in check too
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Ser Pounce
Member
Yeah, I can't remember which was which but two of them were windy and rainy (nothing severe in my area though), the other one we had a trace of rain and it was otherwise sunny and breezy that day. That was the one that caused trouble in NC and lots of problems for people caught in it who were trying to come back home.My buddy as his wife live on James Island in Charleston and they are not leaving. I can’t say I blame him. They didn’t leave for Mathew either. He said it was “a little breezy and wet” but that’s about it. ??
NCSNOW
Member
This is the furthest west Ive seen on recent models since Midnight. 6z GFS Legacy. See where the trends take us today.
Henry2326
Member
He will get notice before/if they close the bridge....he should keep an eye out so he doesn't get stuck....My buddy as his wife live on James Island in Charleston and they are not leaving. I can’t say I blame him. They didn’t leave for Mathew either. He said it was “a little breezy and wet” but that’s about it. ??
packfan98
Moderator
FWIW, the 12z NAM is very similar to 6z except that it's 3 hours slower.
Ser Pounce
Member
Do they close the bridge on Folly Road? I thought the rule was 40mph / bridge is 65' or higher = closed, and the one over the Stono there wasn't that high. They'd definitely close the one at John's Island because that one meets the height requirement.
Looking at the maps, is the trof slower or flatter (the second one)? And is the ridging trying to bridge over stronger? I'm very worried about some of these ensemble members and it sucks I can't dig into it right now, lol.
Henry2326
Member
I'm not sure...
Henry2326
Member
Cadi40
Member
In laymen’s terms is he basically saying some reorganization and possibly restrengthening of the storm may take place?
Henry2326
Member
Yes....he's saying don't be misled by how he looks today.
Downeastnc
Member
The 3k NAM is much closer to the GFS/ICON and considerably further west at 60 hrs than the 12/32k NAM's, which are east of even the UKIE and Euro....
Henry2326
Member
Clearly a shift west....and it looked like it could happen on the GEFS earlier.
South AL Wx
Member
Down to a category 2 now with 110 mph winds. But NHC notes:
Data from aircraft and buoys indicate that the hurricane is growing
in size. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95
km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up
to 175 miles (280 km).
Data from aircraft and buoys indicate that the hurricane is growing
in size. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95
km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up
to 175 miles (280 km).
SCWXGuy
Member
Bridges in CHS never "close" but for high profile bridges above 65' at 30 MPH sustained winds high profile vehicles are restricted and at 40 MPH winds law enforcement abandons them and it is at your own risk to cross.
The only exceptions would be for entering Folly Beach today starting at 4pm you need a Hurricane Resident Pass. IOP and Sullivan's Island have not announced any such restrictions yet.
Henry2326
Member
Must have changed something....my family member was stuck on James Island with Matthew....and it wasn't fun, even with that one off shore.
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campamy
Member
Heartbreaking looking through the list of missing persons in the Bahamas on that google doc and the posts on the forum on StormCarib. Early days still but it just seems hopeless there right now
Ser Pounce
Member
Interesting. I saw them at the base of the Cosgrove bridge sometime between now and 2016 and just kind of assumed they closed it. Good to know though!
Volunteers 14 and older receive free meals and sleeping headquarters in the Bahamas if you volunteer at least 3 nights for storm debris removal or tarp repair. Apply on Samaritans Purse website help is needed.
Officially track keeps it just offshore, watches and warnings up now all along the SE coast..
packfan98
Moderator
12z RGEM (through hour 24) is significantly further west and closer to the FL coastline than 6z.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Yeah, these west trends so far today are not good.
ICON might be 25 miles east but still wants to travel along or just inland of the coast...
Stormsfury
Member
Unfortunately that list also includes Icyclone (Josh). Just saw that on FB. Hope he and others will be found alive.
packfan98
Moderator
I was getting ready to comment that it's definitely East of 6z, but the eye follows the NC coastline from Wilmington through the outer banks. Looks like the GFS to me.