• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Hurricane Dorian

Any chance Dorian basically does a rare East Coast scrape from Florida to Maine? That would be just devastating.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
 
ForsythSnow said:
That's what I'm worried about.
Click to expand...
It does seem that the potential for the celebratory OTS solution, even if many members show it later, should give us pause knowing these other factors, such as the initialization. Trying to zero in on a track is hard enough but then factoring in known miscues to its given output is also important.....
 
lol wut
ecmwf_mslp_uv850_atl_10.png
 
One thing for sure so far parts of the Bahamas are in for a dangerous strike. The EURO run was a huge blow. I assume all the storm chasers and reporters will be there.
 
It would be great to see Dorian miss everyone and go out to sea like the Euro showed, but that was really too close for comfort for folks north of Florida. Great for Florida to not get a direct hit from a monster hurricane, but if the Euro is a little off, it could mean somewhere like SC and NC get hit instead.
 
Henry2326 said:
Yep....and in my opinion, all caused by lack of consensus in models. I wouldn't want to be the politician who bet it wasn't coming and it did. Because of the severe flooding in Charleston, people could die. Here is the surge map for cat4. Basically 20-23 feet at high tide....
Click to expand...
They were nice enough to put that arc with "Charleston" written on it close to home but it's well into bugout territory either way. For coastal SC it's just way too early, and I'm not feeling good about consensus anytime soon.
 
metwannabe said:
It's tricky though, that WAR often over performs (not just speaking tropical here)..... no room for error but it is a good trend no doubt
Click to expand...

The Euro has over-modeled that which has led to this correction though. I guess it could tick back stronger. I like a blend of the GFS/Euro. Typically it's somewhere in the middle.

Of course, it's still day 4 until it starts it's north trek, so imagine something will change by then.

EuroGFS.gif
 
Just in from the last round of shopping and read 5 pages of the Euro barely making a landfall to making none ... leads to two thoughts: 1) hope it's right but it seems goofy and we'll see what the NHC does with it in a couple hours, and 2) wonder if Publix accepts returns of toilet paper and Velveta cheese ... LOL
 
Ser Pounce said:
They were nice enough to put that arc with "Charleston" written on it close to home but it's well into bugout territory either way. For coastal SC it's just way too early, and I'm not feeling good about consensus anytime soon.
Click to expand...
Correct....wait till Tuesday to see if it makes landfall or turns earlier than that...
 
KyloG said:
The Euro has over-modeled that which has led to this correction though. I guess it could tick back stronger. I like a blend of the GFS/Euro. Typically it's somewhere in the middle.

Of course, it's still day 4 until it starts it's north trek, so imagine something will change by then.

View attachment 22484
Click to expand...
What do you know the Euro is weakening its west atlantic ridge with time, I haven't seen that at all this summer
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top