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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

SCWXGuy said:
These are general worst case scenario maps for a top end Cat2 at high tide. We should defer to the local mets on exact impacts. If you are on one of the barrier islands you should get out. Not worth the risk.
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Tell that to Panama City.........
If you are under a mandatory evacuation order, then leave.
 
SCWXGuy said:
These are general worst case scenario maps for a top end Cat2 at high tide. We should defer to the local mets on exact impacts. If you are on one of the barrier islands you should get out. Not worth the risk.
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Cat1....I don't feel any better.


CHS_mom1.png
 
GaWx said:
What model is this?
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Lol. If it’s not the gfs/euro combination then I wouldn’t be so worried in Georgia for a landfall. Some of the models have been an embarrassment going into central Florida or the gulf.
 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
Local Mets tend to hug one model or wait for the NHC cone to update. With the trends today, I say their tone changes by the 5oclock news.
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Agree in general that most media just relays NWS, but Channel 2 doesn't just follow blindly. They report their track and give other analysis and context. Rob Fowler is one of the best in the business. If I give the impression that I am downplaying the risks here that is not the case, but its also not a cause for panic either if a worst case scenario occurs here at my location. Fully prepared to depart tomorrow by noon if necessary. Would take less than an hour to get far enough away to be safe.
 
SCWXGuy said:
Agree in general that most media just relays NWS, but Channel 2 doesn't just follow blindly. They report their track and give other analysis and context. Rob Fowler is one of the best in the business. If I give the impression that I am downplaying the risks here that is not the case, but its also not a cause for panic either if a worst case scenario occurs here at my location. Fully prepared to depart tomorrow by noon if necessary. Would take less than an hour to get far enough away to be safe.
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Add Bill Walsh to that list. I know both of them personally and they have been here for 30 plus years and are definitely more than just on air broadcasters just reporting. Charleston really is fortunate to have both on air here.

With that I'm sure after they see these model runs, they will address the threat level may have increased.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Lol. If it’s not the gfs/euro combination then I wouldn’t be so worried in Georgia for a landfall. Some of the models have been an embarrassment going into central Florida or the gulf.
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Yeah, like the HWRF, when everyone laughed it off for it’s absurd cat 5 runs!? Sometimes you can’t count on the big 2 models
 
SUMMARY OF 100 PM EDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.4N 78.6W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM N OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM E OF FORT PIERCE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...5 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Blake
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Downeastnc said:
UKIE has landfall on Cape Fear and MHX after skirting SC.....the only model not showing a landfall in NC is the Euro and it is literally 20 miles off the coast....and who knows what it will do at 12Z today

View attachment 22989View attachment 22990View attachment 22991
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Also noted it was strengthening into landfall which was a bit of surprise. I guess we need to start trying to figure out that part as well. As you and others have showed can make all the difference just inland.
 
Stormsfury said:
Add Bill Walsh to that list. I know both of them personally and they have been here for 30 plus years and are definitely more than just on air broadcasters just reporting. Charleston really is fortunate to have both on air here.

With that I'm sure after they see these model runs, they will address the threat level may have increased.
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Probably so, and to be fair to 2 it wasn't during the normal weather portion of the newscast IIRC. The 'x' percent chance of 'y' mph winds was what they were talking about and it caught my attention because I had that exact page open on the NHC site.
 
12z HWRF.......shift west, but manages to keep the eye wall slightly off the SC coast. This is the HMON and GFS position just north of Charleston...


hwrf_ref_05L_18.png
 
12z HWRF with NC landfall.....hard to tell but looks like he is every so slightly on the coastline between Charleston to this point.


hwrf_ref_05L_23.png
 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
Euro use to be the trend setter now it’s the trend follower.
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The Euro has done well imo. It was the first model to show that long stall on runs a number of days ago that some wouldn't believe. Once it had the stall, every run afterward had it. It not getting kudos would be ridiculous and ignoring reality. OTOH, the UKMET had some awful runs into the GOM.
 
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