Tropical Hurricane Dorian

[Brick Tamland]

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The tracks continue to shift east and the intensity continues to increase. Still looks the majority of them have a landfall in Florida.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Certain. 1/3 hit and 2/3 miss FL. Give or take


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Looks like at least half are closer to the coast or inland compared to the operational .. no clarity

 

[deltadog03]

What do you know the Euro is weakening its west atlantic ridge with time, I haven't seen that at all this summer

Ya I wanna see more consistent runs like that before I buy into it.

 

[Cadi40]

As a proud Publix associate I can confirm we accept returns!!

 

[Meteorologist1999]

The tracks continue to shift and the intensity continues to increase. Still looks the majority of them have a landfall in Florida.

Do we get a increase here in South Carolina?

 

[Cadi40]

I do find it extremely interesting how alike it looks to Hugo, it’s actually quite scary.

 

[KyloG]

Day 6

 

[Ser Pounce]

South Carolina gets a 'ask in 48 hours.'

 

[SD]

The tracks continue to shift east and the intensity continues to increase. Still looks the majority of them have a landfall in Florida.

Thing of it is, the more this trends east of Fl the more this can become a problem for us. Right now the trough interaction is perfect enough so that most models shift it SE of our area. Slow that trough down or deepen it in the plains and its well inland in NC

 

[GaWx]

Looks like bulk of EPS members will miss FL

View attachment 22487

The tracks continue to shift east and the intensity continues to increase. Still looks the majority of them have a landfall in Florida.

The bolded is not true. Many more miss FL to the east...maybe 2/3 of them.

 

[Arcc]

What do you know the Euro is weakening its west atlantic ridge with time, I haven't seen that at all this summer

And why cant we get a trough that trends deeper in winter.

 

[Brick Tamland]

The bolded is not true. Many more miss FL to the east...maybe 2/3 of them.

I wasn't talking about just the EPS. I was talking about all the models. I even quoted that in the reply.

 

[Brick Tamland]

Thing of it is, the more this trends east of Fl the more this can become a problem for us. Right now the trough interaction is perfect enough so that most models shift it SE of our area. Slow that trough down or deepen it in the plains and its well inland in NC

Oh, I know. That's why I said it is great news for Florida, but if it misses them and the track is just a bit off, it could be very bad for SC and NC.

 

[Bryce Shelton]

I think its time for GA SC and even NC to start getting ready to prepare...

 

[SD]

And why cant we get a trough that trends deeper in winter.

IDK man but the euro loves to pump the SE ridge in summer

 

[KyloG]

12z EPS.

 

[JaxHurricane12]

Going out on a limb and saying I really do think that this takes a similar path as Matthew. Gut feeling really, just feel like I've seen this before.

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

I wasn't talking about just the EPS. I was talking about all the models. I even quoted that in the reply.

What I find interesting is if you take a look at that chunk of models in SE GA. Appears a good number heading NW from there and no recurve to the NE. That’s new.

 

[KyloG]

That is impressive/scary to say the least.

 

[pcbjr]

So, anybody want to go out on a limb and tell me N C FL is out of the woods?