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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

Local NWS office in MHX for eastern NC, their CWA will be where the NC landfalls occur other than Cape Fear...

However, it must be stressed that even minor adjustments in
the track could result in significant changes to the threats, and
all residents of eastern North Carolina should be preparing for
hurricane force winds and interests vulnerable to storm surge should
prepare their properties and stay tuned to subsequent forecasts as
surge forecasts are refined in the next day or two.
 
Looks like it has gulped some dry air, until it burps that out it's not gonna intensify too much if any at all.... probably will just help to make that eye huge and continue to expand the wind field.
 
Storm is east of 11am forecast points (and model guidance):

dorian-radar.png
 
5:00 discussion:

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 PM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019

Dorian has finally begun a more definitive northwestward motion this
afternoon. The satellite presentation of the hurricane is slightly
better in one-minute GOES 16 imagery with the large eye becoming a
little more apparent. The eye has also become better defined in NWS
Doppler radar from Melbourne, Florida. Reconnaissance aircraft data
continue to show an expansion of the tropical-storm and 50-kt wind
radii, and it is likely that the area of hurricane-force winds
will also increase somewhat during the next 24-36 hours. The initial
intensity remains 95 kt, and is a blend of the earlier
reconnaissance data and the latest satellite estimates. Dorian will
be moving northwestward over untapped waters east of the Florida
peninsula, which may lead to some structural re-organization, but
little overall change in intensity is expected during the next
couple of days. After that time, a gradual decrease in the peak
wind speed and an increase in storm size are predicted while the
vertical shear increases and the storm moves farther north. An
approaching mid-latitude trough and front will begin interacting
with the hurricane on Saturday and Dorian is forecast to become a
powerful extratropical low by 120 hours.

Dorian is now moving northwestward or 325/5 kt. The deep-layer
trough along the east coast of the United States is expected to
amplify on Wednesday, which should cause Dorian to move at a
slightly faster north-northwestward motion tonight and Wednesday.
After that time, Dorian should turn northward, and then north-
northeastward ahead of a shortwave trough moving into the eastern
United States. Once Dorian is offshore of eastern North Carolina,
it should accelerate northeastward within the mid-latitude
westerlies.

The track envelope has edged closer to the coasts of
South Carolina and North Carolina and the NHC track has been
adjusted in that direction.

A track that close to the coast, even
if landfall does not occur, is likely to bring dangerous winds,
life-threatening storm surge, and flooding rains across the eastern
portions of the Carolinas.
 
Looks to be moving more N than NW, on radar
 
Anyone displaced can show your ID at the NC Zoo for half off admission. The Zoo is located in Asheboro safely away from any sig. impacts other than a few showers or gusts to 35. All states apply and they do not investigate deeply so no proof needed other than ID.
 
Per Levi weakening has halted. And poised to move over boiling water. If there is any surprises left I think it intensifies.
 
Looks like the HRRR is east of the latest 18z NAM around 14z wed thankfully
 
I'll add my own FWIW but maybe a bit late-ish, apparently Richmond County schools in Georgia shut down through Thursday this week to become shelters again to help the nearby coasts.

I was confused about it at first, but after I read some of Larry's more recent posts I'm not as confused.

Apparently they already received medical evacuees yesterday to boot as well.
 
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IF you thought the 12K NAM looked bad check this out....no way this is right if it is then this would be nasty hit for SC/NC.....for the record I 100% believe this is way overdone in coverage, still if it is even half right....

18Z-20190903_NAMNSTMA_sfc_gust-56-60-10-100.gif
 
pcbjr said:
Until this thing is 5 degrees north of MBY, nothing is considered bogus ... yes, the thought defies wisdom ... but made the mistake of letting guard down once ... that ain't ever happening again ... carry on ...
Click to expand...

Yeah I slept through Fran at NCSU. I thought it was gonna turn ots.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
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