• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Hurricane Dorian

guiness187055 said:
How does the euro starting off with a much weaker storm then what it really is affect the model run?
Click to expand...
We saw this at least once last year and the year before, where there was a lot of wanting to toss model tracks because they weren't initializing the core pressure properly. It turned out to be unwise. Not saying that it can't matter, but it's good to take into account the whole picture.
 
SCWXGuy said:
Totally unrealistic. Look at the panel the day before (below). No way you go from 995 over inland Northern FL on Wednesday to 954 as a CAT 4/5 at Charleston the next day.

View attachment 22498
Click to expand...
I hear ya....but....they input new values with new data. It sometimes generate a completely different results from day to day.
 
Henry2326 said:
I hear ya....but....they input new values with new data. It sometimes generate a completely different results from day to day.
Click to expand...
Which means ... do not put eggs in a one run of one model basket, and that things may look different tomorrow ... but I think I said that somewhere before ... trends are what you should look at when sticking to models ...
 
Henry2326 said:
I hear ya....but....they input new values with new data. It sometimes generate a completely different results from day to day.
Click to expand...

I wasn't referring to the landfall at CHS. I was referring to the same model run with the prior hours leading up to it. Have a look. It shows 995 mb a bit west of Jacksonville, FL over land and having been weakening over land and then the very next day a 954mb hurricane at Charleston. It just isn't possible. The storm would have to have been over water either scraping the coast or come in direct from the ocean to have a 954 mb at Charleston.

5PM NHC update incoming...
 
SCWXGuy said:
I wasn't referring to the landfall at CHS. I was referring to the same model run with the prior hours leading up to it. Have a look. It shows 995 a bit west of Jacksonville, FL over land and having been over land and the next day a 954mb hurricane at Charleston. It just isn't possible. The storm would have to have been over water either scraping the coast or come in direct from the ocean to have a 954 mb at Charleston.
Click to expand...
I hear ya.....it was an outlier until Euro. How they got there will likely change in the next run. To Phil's point, its leading a trend of 2 right now. More north and East.
 
pcbjr said:
Which means ... do not put eggs in a one run of one model basket, and that things may look different tomorrow ... but I think I said that somewhere before ... trends are what you should look at when sticking to models ...
Click to expand...
I think you say it every day...lol...thanks for saying it. We all forget from time to time. :)
 
I think we need another day to see what the models are doing before you call anything definite or a trend. We all should know better than to hop on one bandwagon and go with it because it favors "our solution". Step back and take a logical approach, and you'll see that We haven't had anything more than a general idea since yesterday. Troughs are hard to forecast and so are high strengths. That's what all the weather balloon launches were for, but if I remember correctly, it wasn't up north as well. If we had them up there I would be more confident in saying a curve is possible but from what I can tell we have no sampling up there.
 
ForsythSnow said:
I think we need another day to see what the models are doing before you call anything definite or a trend. We all should know better than to hop on one bandwagon and go with it because it favors "our solution". Step back and take a logical approach, and you'll see that We haven't had anything more than a general idea since yesterday. Troughs are hard to forecast and so are high strengths. That's what all the weather balloon launches were for, but if I remember correctly, it wasn't up north as well. If we had them up there I would be more confident in saying a curve is possible but from what I can tell we have no sampling up there.
Click to expand...
??
 
ForsythSnow said:
I think we need another day to see what the models are doing before you call anything definite or a trend. We all should know better than to hop on one bandwagon and go with it because it favors "our solution". Step back and take a logical approach, and you'll see that We haven't had anything more than a general idea since yesterday. Troughs are hard to forecast and so are high strengths. That's what all the weather balloon launches were for, but if I remember correctly, it wasn't up north as well. If we had them up there I would be more confident in saying a curve is possible but from what I can tell we have no sampling up there.
Click to expand...
Damn, FS ... Bingo (and thanks!) ... Phil
 
Also, new advisory is out and still expecting landfall.

No intensity changes but it's turned and now is moving WNW.
205152_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
 
205152_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 70.7W
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
ABOUT 595 MI...960 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES
Click to expand...
 
ForsythSnow said:
I think we need another day to see what the models are doing before you call anything definite or a trend. We all should know better than to hop on one bandwagon and go with it because it favors "our solution". Step back and take a logical approach, and you'll see that We haven't had anything more than a general idea since yesterday. Troughs are hard to forecast and so are high strengths. That's what all the weather balloon launches were for, but if I remember correctly, it wasn't up north as well. If we had them up there I would be more confident in saying a curve is possible but from what I can tell we have no sampling up there.
Click to expand...
Might I add: if you live anywhere along the east coast in the states of FL, GA, SC, or NC, you should already have a bug out plan to move inland. If you don't, then get busy. The accuracy of the models is not precise enough to give you 3-5 days to get something setup.
 
If I've learned anything the last several summers, tracking TC storm threats past about 48 hours for the south east is pretty similar to winter seasonal forecasts. I'd expect a west trend, than east, than south trend in the models over the weekend. lol. I think we've just got to wait and see a bit. With that said having it curve out to sea is pretty darn common. Wouldn't shock me.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top