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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

Anymore east and it'll be offshore

The ridge is
forecast to build even more and steer Dorian on a westward track for
the next 3 to 4 days. However, the steering currents will then
weaken, and this should result in a decrease in the hurricane's
forward speed. Given the collapse of the steering currents, the
track forecast by the end of the forecast period is highly
uncertain, and any small deviation in the track could bring the
core of the powerful hurricane well inland over the Florida, keep
it near the coast, or offshore. The models have not been very
consistent from run to run in terms of the timing of the northward
turn, but there are more models now indicating that the turn could
occur near the east coast of Florida instead of well inland. Given
this latest change, the NHC forecast has been shifted just a little
to the right at this time, but users should be prepared for
additional adjustements to the left or right depending on future
model trends
 
Brent said:
Anymore east and it'll be offshore

The ridge is
forecast to build even more and steer Dorian on a westward track for
the next 3 to 4 days. However, the steering currents will then
weaken, and this should result in a decrease in the hurricane's
forward speed. Given the collapse of the steering currents, the
track forecast by the end of the forecast period is highly
uncertain, and any small deviation in the track could bring the
core of the powerful hurricane well inland over the Florida, keep
it near the coast, or offshore. The models have not been very
consistent from run to run in terms of the timing of the northward
turn, but there are more models now indicating that the turn could
occur near the east coast of Florida instead of well inland. Given
this latest change, the NHC forecast has been shifted just a little
to the right at this time, but users should be prepared for
additional adjustements to the left or right depending on future
model trends
Click to expand...
Thanks, Brent!
A dose of stark realism (much needed) ... ;)
 
Henry2326 said:
Yep...glad for you. :) Looks like NHC buying in to coast rider. Jax with a hurricane could be a first in 100 years. Maybe we will get lucky to offshore movement trend in the next 3 days.
Click to expand...
Dora was a lot less than 100 ago; remember it all too well ...
 
The ICON decides to develop that disturbance that I think is at 0% again in the 18z....well okay.

It's just a tropical storm but it'd have implications.
 
Telling....

5:00 pm NHC discussion:

"Based on the new forecast, a hurricane warning has been issued for
poertions of the northwest Bahamas. However, given the slower
forecast speed of Dorian, it is too soon to issue any watches for
the Florida coast at this time."
 
Sure ICON sure...

1567200606159.png

Actually makes it into the gulf before turning northward.

Btw: seems as if they had a problem with an earlier mission, but like said above, they have two different planes heading in now. It'll be interesting to see where we're at now.
 
Henry2326 said:
Telling....

5:00 pm NHC discussion:

"Based on the new forecast, a hurricane warning has been issued for
poertions of the northwest Bahamas. However, given the slower
forecast speed of Dorian, it is too soon to issue any watches for
the Florida coast at this time."
Click to expand...
It's all in SEC scheduling ... if UF had a home game this weekend, the entire Ocala to Gainesville area would be twigs and floating trees ...
 
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