Tropical Hurricane Dorian

[Thor]

Uk met shift west ruh roh

 

[blueheronNC]

Contraflow for Charleston starting to look like a genius move

 

[Henry2326]

Uk met shift west ruh roh
View attachment 22988

I share your sentiment....HRWF and Euro, then we will have consensus for the first time....

 

[Downeastnc]

UKIE has landfall on Cape Fear and MHX after skirting SC.....the only model not showing a landfall in NC is the Euro and it is literally 20 miles off the coast....and who knows what it will do at 12Z today

 

[Henry2326]

Contraflow for Charleston starting to look like a genius move

Ain't that the truth....

 

[Brick Tamland]

Well, if the Euro doesn't shift west it will be the only one that doesn't.

 

[Tarheel1]

Lol. If it’s not the gfs/euro combination then I wouldn’t be so worried in Georgia for a landfall. Some of the models have been an embarrassment going into central Florida or the gulf.

Yeah, like the HWRF, when everyone laughed it off for it’s absurd cat 5 runs!? Sometimes you can’t count on the big 2 models

 

[Snowfan]

SUMMARY OF 100 PM EDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.4N 78.6W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM N OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM E OF FORT PIERCE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...5 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Blake

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Euro use to be the trend setter now it’s the trend follower.

 

[Thor]

UKIE has landfall on Cape Fear and MHX after skirting SC.....the only model not showing a landfall in NC is the Euro and it is literally 20 miles off the coast....and who knows what it will do at 12Z today

View attachment 22989View attachment 22990View attachment 22991

Also noted it was strengthening into landfall which was a bit of surprise. I guess we need to start trying to figure out that part as well. As you and others have showed can make all the difference just inland.

 

[Ser Pounce]

Add Bill Walsh to that list. I know both of them personally and they have been here for 30 plus years and are definitely more than just on air broadcasters just reporting. Charleston really is fortunate to have both on air here.

With that I'm sure after they see these model runs, they will address the threat level may have increased.

Probably so, and to be fair to 2 it wasn't during the normal weather portion of the newscast IIRC. The 'x' percent chance of 'y' mph winds was what they were talking about and it caught my attention because I had that exact page open on the NHC site.

 

[Henry2326]

Yeah, like the HWRF, when everyone laughed it off for it’s absurd cat 5 runs!? Sometimes you can’t count on the big 2 models

I'm a huge HWRF fan.....

 

[Ethan80963!]

 

[Brick Tamland]

UKIE has landfall on Cape Fear and MHX after skirting SC.....the only model not showing a landfall in NC is the Euro and it is literally 20 miles off the coast....and who knows what it will do at 12Z today

View attachment 22989View attachment 22990View attachment 22991

Yikes, a cat 3 going up the coastline of NC. The Euro is going to be big today.

 

[Henry2326]

12z HWRF.......shift west, but manages to keep the eye wall slightly off the SC coast. This is the HMON and GFS position just north of Charleston...

 

[Ethan80963!]

 

[Downeastnc]

Yikes, a cat 3 going up the coastline of NC. The Euro is going to be big today.

That pressure does not automatically mean Cat 3, Irene hit with a 950 mb pressure as a 85 mph Cat 1

 

[Downeastnc]

View attachment 22996

That seems a little surprising.....

 

[Henry2326]

12z HWRF with NC landfall.....hard to tell but looks like he is every so slightly on the coastline between Charleston to this point.

 

[GaWx]

Euro use to be the trend setter now it’s the trend follower.

The Euro has done well imo. It was the first model to show that long stall on runs a number of days ago that some wouldn't believe. Once it had the stall, every run afterward had it. It not getting kudos would be ridiculous and ignoring reality. OTOH, the UKMET had some awful runs into the GOM.