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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

metwannabe said:
It is but also it isn't.... is it? I mean the last several runs had it turning north (maybe not stalling out but slowing), just seems it turned sooner this run. Either way, track wise it's certainly different and a head ache for the NHC
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Ridge was way weaker per Ryan on Twitter.
 
This run would certainly be a big sigh of relief, but for now it just adds to the confusion.

nobody needs the kind of major that this is potentially going to be.
 
It misses ( mostly) NC as well heads NE to right on or off Hatteras, would be a rough day on the beaches but it would have to track like the 12Z GFS to really be a bad hit for NC....
 
At least there’s a shot at this thing goin ots, but it’s only 1 run of the euro, hopefully future runs doesn’t bounce around and maybe this thing can go ots
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
This run would certainly be a big sigh of relief, but for now it just adds to the confusion.

nobody needs the kind of major that this is potentially going to be.
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Yeah....can't see politicians not evacuating Charleston with it that close off shore....just in case it doesn't work out that way.
 
We may be seeing a lot of members OTS on the EPS later today! *Crossing fingers*
 
GFS brings the storm along the same route, but just a hundred miles west. Amazing what a slight difference in the storm track can mean!

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metwannabe said:
It is but also it isn't.... is it? I mean the last several runs had it turning north (maybe not stalling out but slowing), just seems it turned sooner this run. Either way, track wise it's certainly different and a head ache for the NHC
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Hmmmm...might have similarities to UKmet....
 
Ser Pounce said:
What would this be, 4 years in a row now?

If what I read about initialization of this run is true it upps the size of the grain of salt I'm taking it with.
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Yep....and in my opinion, all caused by lack of consensus in models. I wouldn't want to be the politician who bet it wasn't coming and it did. Because of the severe flooding in Charleston, people could die. Here is the surge map for cat4. Basically 20-23 feet at high tide....

CHS_mom4.png
 
KyloG said:
Last 3 Euro runs. Can clear see the effects of the weaker w-ar. Don't get that bend SW as it approaches Florida.


View attachment 22482
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It's tricky though, that WAR often over performs (not just speaking tropical here)..... no room for error but it is a good trend no doubt
 
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