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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

Not sure what is more concerning the slight westward shifts of the fact that models are slowing it down some too... indications of a weaker trough? If so it's forward speed would be much slower which is also very problematic
 
metwannabe said:
Not sure what is more concerning the slight westward shifts of the fact that models are slowing it down some too... indications of a weaker trough? If so it's forward speed would be much slower which is also very problematic
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Still lots of time, but need to see evidence of the ridge nosing back west before getting too worried about things. A few miles will make the biggest difference near the eyewall/coc, but for now, ~25-50 miles of wiggle room seems like a reasonable margin for error 60 hours out. I know some of the ensemble members show inland tracks, but I still don't see any solid evidence that that will be the case right now. Along/offshore seems most likely.
 
Amazing how narrow the cone is. And to know this would largely go up the coast and possibly hit coastal areas of the Carolinas many days in advance. Really no surprises in store.
 
I can’t even see the eye on IR anymore. Still a big nasty storm but maybe the beginning of the end for Dorian. Those super cold cloud tops just aren’t there anymore however I do believe we see towers go up one more time before she begins to bite the dust
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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I can’t even see the eye on IR anymore. Still a big nasty storm but maybe the beginning of the end for Dorian. Those super cold cloud tops just aren’t there anymore however I do believe we see towers go up one more time before she begins to bite the dust
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But it’s growing in size which I think it worse than a CAT 5 going out to sea.
 
Rain Cold said:
Still lots of time, but need to see evidence of the ridge nosing back west before getting too worried about things. A few miles will make the biggest difference near the eyewall/coc, but for now, ~25-50 miles of wiggle room seems like a reasonable margin for error 60 hours out. I know some of the ensemble members show inland tracks, but I still don't see any solid evidence that that will be the case right now. Along/offshore seems most likely.
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Full disclosure, I'm not worried especially for mby.... even if it came inland some I don't mind the wind/rain. It's coastal areas that concern me and areas, that while it's been dry of late, not everyone has recovered from Matthew and Florence. For their sake I hope it kicks ots, but I'm not seeing solid evidence of that right now and along or just offshore is still an issue for them, especially if it slows any. Sure seems any deviation today, though small as it may be, is currently slower and westward....
 
metwannabe said:
Full disclosure, I'm not worried especially for mby.... even if it came inland some I don't mind the wind/rain. It's coastal areas that concern me and areas, that while it's been dry of late, not everyone has recovered from Matthew and Florence. For their sake I hope it kicks ots, but I'm not seeing solid evidence of that right now and along or just offshore is still an issue for them, especially if it slows any. Sure seems any deviation today, though small as it may be, is currently slower and westward....
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Yeah 50 miles for me is probably the difference between gust to 50 and gust to 75, honestly if it does not take a more ENE heading right at ILM and gets 40-50 miles north of ILM before turning it would be a pretty big game changer for you and the Triangle.....and then the size of the wind field and the gradient packing with the trough and dry air working in etc can do all kinds of stuff to enhance the NW side wind field.....also if the storm gets that last second pressure drop coming in etc it would help it keep the higher winds inland longer etc.....its very difficult to determine what kind of winds we are going to see from SC to NC especially away from the coast....

My county is officially under a TS watch though
 
BirdManDoomW said:
But it’s growing in size which I think it worse than a CAT 5 going out to sea.
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We need it to die before it gets to the northern latitudes and melts all of our Ice. Could help with our -NAO down the road though. Of course I’m reaching here
 
Downeastnc said:
Yeah 50 miles for me is probably the difference between gust to 50 and gust to 75, honestly if it does not take a more ENE heading right at ILM and gets 40-50 miles north of ILM before turning it would be a pretty big game changer for you and the Triangle.....and then the size of the wind field and the gradient packing with the trough and dry air working in etc can do all kinds of stuff to enhance the NW side wind field.....also if the storm gets that last second pressure drop coming in etc it would help it keep the higher winds inland longer etc.....its very difficult to determine what kind of winds we are going to see from SC to NC especially away from the coast....

My county is officially under a TS watch though
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I know not mentioned in this post, but you and I (and others) have reference Irene before and the inland effects of an expanding wind field.... I'm sure you recall but that was just a Cat 1 along the coast too
 
packfan98 said:
Definite trend towards a weaker system on the most recent model runs. New GFS's included.
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Trended slower and a tad west. Eye scraping the coast at Charleston and landfall just north in SC....rides the coast the rest of the way.
 
Maybe a landfall in SC below Georgetown before another one at bald head in NCgfs_mslp_uv850_seus_10.png
 
GFS over Cape Fear across Onslow Bay, over MHX and Cedar Island then into the Pam and right over Hatteras....pretty much the same as the ICON and the last 2 days of runs, its actually remarkable how little deviations the models has had with track the last couple of days.....scary even.
 
GFS almost identical track to it's 06z run, just a tick slower... 12z Fri it's over Hatteras, 06z same time was 50-75 miles NE of there
 
Its so close between Charleston and north that its just slitting hairs. The risk is that it could be any where in that 200 mile stretch, or all of it.
 
Downeastnc said:
GFS over Cape Fear across Onslow Bay, over MHX and Cedar Island then into the Pam and right over Hatteras....pretty much the same as the ICON and the last 2 days of runs, its actually remarkable how little deviations the models has had with track the last couple of days.....scary even.
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Frankly...it shouldn't be too hard. The dang thing didn't move.
 
metwannabe said:
I know not mentioned in this post, but you and I (and others) have reference Irene before and the inland effects of an expanding wind field.... I'm sure you recall but that was just a Cat 1 along the coast too
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The center of the 100 mile wide eye was over the middle of the Pamlico, but the edge of the eyewall ( I use that term loosely ) was only 45 miles east of me.....the flip side to this is Hurricane Bonnie she tracked very similar to what the models show with Dorian but she was a had dry air and shear issues and even though she got within 50 miles of here we never gusted over 45......same with Florence last year she hit Jacksonville and had a big eye and we never gusted over 50 here but 20 miles south of me had 70-90 mph gust....the 925mb winds are strong enough to give most of eastern NC gust 40-60 on the GFS run of Dorian just now.....
 
You would think there would be some decent Surge in the Myrtle area with this look, high tide is at 135 pm as well.

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Looking more and more towards a matthew deal as it passes Florida (which matthew was much closer to FL than Dorian appears ***SO FAR** will be).. for the Carolinas.

Anxiously awaiting the GEFS members.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Volunteers 14 and older receive free meals and sleeping headquarters in the Bahamas if you volunteer at least 3 nights for storm debris removal or tarp repair. Apply on Samaritans Purse website help is needed.
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If anyone can use any accumulated vacation time for this, Samaritans Purse is a very worthy cause. They are always one of the first on the scene.
 
I don't particularly trust rainfall prediction maps with hurricanes but certainly some flooding potential

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I hope Charleston folks are paying attention. I was there earlier in the summer and a normal summer thunderstorm flooded and closed several streets. I don’t even want to think what the surge will be like with a storm approaching from this direction not to mention the 10-20 inches of rain.
 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
I hope Charleston folks are paying attention. I was there earlier in the summer and a normal summer thunderstorm flooded and closed several streets. I don’t even want to think what the surge will be like with a storm approaching from this direction not to mention the 10-20 inches of rain.
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Flooding is a very localized issue. What you experienced is typical. Downtown is notorious for it and will certainly have high water, but that is a regular occurrence. Mt Pleasant only in limited areas near the tidal creeks and harbor. Other areas are the same. Storm surge will not be a factor except on the barrier islands.
 
SCWXGuy said:
Flooding is a very localized issue. What you experienced is typical. Downtown is notorious for it and will certainly have high water, but that is a regular occurrence. Mt Pleasant only in limited areas near the tidal creeks and harbor. Other areas are the same. Storm surge will not be a factor except on the barrier islands.
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CHS_mom2 (2).png
 
SUMMARY OF 1200 PM EDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.2N 78.6W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM N OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF FORT PIERCE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES
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