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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

Shawn said:
Guys... she doesn't look the best and is weakening because she has been stuck in one spot for a long time. She can easily organize when she gets on the move again, but I do think we saw Dorian peak already, and we likely won't have a Category 5 off the GA/SC/NC coasts.
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Saw a tweet from Ryan yesterday that stated the water is only about 6-10' where it has been stalled, stating there was not cooler water to upwell..... of course sitting as long as it has it had to weaken at some point but just thought that was interesting. Also to your point in the other post about strengthening, yeah it has peaked big time but also as you mentioned once it gets moving no reason it can't regain some strength. It's not like being over land and disrupting the core.
 
Shawn said:
Still seeing some signs that the storm will continue to grow, with yet another larger eyewall and wind field expanding on it's way up the coast. That throws a monkey wrench into a lot of forecasts in regards to impacts, especially on the Carolina coasts.
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Yeah if the eye is 75 miles across the center can be 30 miles offshore and the eyewall still get 40 miles inland.
 
Shawn said:
Anywhere between just South of Myrtle Beach and the NC coast is still in the crosshairs for a landfall imo.
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I think the coastlines of SC/NC see some pretty bad conditions. If he does make landfall and moves inland 15 or so miles that puts me roughly 60 Mike's to his northwest when he is over morehead city.

Gonna boil down to exact track and wind distribution as to what kind of winds I can get. Models putting out gusts to 70+ but I am very skeptical of those maps.
 
Downeastnc said:
Yeah if the eye is 75 miles across the center can be 30 miles offshore and the eyewall still get 40 miles inland.
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Just heard a TWC met on the radio say that TS force winds only extend out 45 miles and then followed that up with, that the radius you want to be looking at as it approaches the coast (and he was speaking specifically for NC) as if that not going to change. I wonder sometimes if they don't understand or pay attention or if they think the average listener doesn't understand so that think why bother. I mean if I didn't know better just by what he said I would think if I'm 50 miles from the center I've got no worries.....sheesh
 
Shaggy said:
I think the coastlines of SC/NC see some pretty bad conditions. If he does make landfall and moves inland 15 or so miles that puts me roughly 60 Mike's to his northwest when he is over morehead city.

Gonna boil down to exact track and wind distribution as to what kind of winds I can get. Models putting out gusts to 70+ but I am very skeptical of those maps.
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Some of those wind maps, especially from the Euro with expanding tropical cyclones tend to be over done well inland in most cases. Still could likely be quite breezy regardless.
 
metwannabe said:
Just heard a TWC met on the radio say that TS force winds only extend out 45 miles and then followed that up with, that the radius you want to be looking at as it approaches the coast (and he was speaking specifically for NC) as if that not going to change. I wonder sometimes if they don't understand or pay attention or if they think the average listener doesn't understand so that think why bother. I mean if I didn't know better just by what he said I would think if I'm 50 miles from the center I've got no worries.....sheesh
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Hurricane force winds extend 45 miles, ts winds 160 miles
 
Looks like slow movement just like the NHC track shows. Kinda of a boring day.

Edit: wow, 2 pages of replies between when I wrote and posted this! If nothing maybe we'll be able to start looking more into the timing of things.
 
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Shawn said:
Some of those wind maps, especially from the Euro with expanding tropical cyclones tend to be over done well inland in most cases. Still could likely be quite breezy regardless.
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It has a lot to do with how well we mix down the 850/925 MB winds.....if there is dry air moving in we get bigger winds on the west side ( like in Matthew and Irene ), also the track as obviously the closer to the center you are the closer to the ground those winds are and are easier to mix down.....if the center takes the ICON/GFS track then I think gust to 60-75 east of I-95 are doable with 60 along I-95 and the 75 closer to Hwy 17...east of Hwy 17 everyone should get solid hurricane gust on just about any of the modeled tracks.....
 
Ser Pounce said:
Looks like slow movement just like the NHC track shows. Kinda of a boring day.
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Respectfully disagree with this.... maybe from a sensible weather aspect but the fact that it is finally moving, get to compare model points and all models should have a better handle on the trough/ridge today so track guidance should become more certain I don't think it is. It's almost like Saturday's on the PGA, it's moving day
 
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