Downeastnc
Member
yep damn thought that had updated......
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Tropical Hurricane Dorian
- Thread starter Metwannabe
- Start date
yep damn thought that had updated......
Seeing comments that say Dorian is drifting this way or that way.... Dorian ain't moving. Don't let the more ragged wobbling eye fool you, the north central beaches of Grand Bahama have been in the clearing of the southern part of the eye for hours now
Downeastnc
Member
yep this is spot on really, the west side doesnt have the same higher background sustained wind field the east side does, but mixing from heavy precip/drier air working in makes for some big gust reaching the ground....you can hear them coming...could be gust to 50-60 mph as far inland as the east side of the Triangle even with that track if the setup is right.
Yeah, that roar you hear above your head from these setups is something you can’t ever forget
Brasiluvsnow
Member
IMO ,Its not reliable at all
NWS Raleigh made a video
Downeastnc
Member
This was Irene right after dawn IMBY the center was still 125 miles away from us...this is probably sustained 25-30ish gusting to 50-55...so again structure is everything, Irene was a former Cat 4 in the Bahamas that weakened and grew a big wind field with a dual eyewall so even though the center stayed 75 miles away at closest approach we gusted well into the 50-80 mph range. How high the winds get away from the coast have a lot to do with more than just how far the center is...Hurricane Bonnie and Isabel both got within 30-40 miles of here and we never even gusted to 50-55 in those storms....Matthew stayed offshore for the most part but we gusted to 60.....
The next morning coming back from looking at damage
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Downeastnc
Member
New Ukie offshore Cape Fear barely maybe even gets them into the center depending on how big the eye is, then over Emerald Isle into the Pamlico then over the OBX just north of Hatteras.....if the strength is right its got to be at least 100-120 mph storm....
F-5
Member
Irene was a huge problem even way up here and the center stayed just offshore, had a huge wind field and was a slow mover...
Pressure seems to be coming up some, winds down a little but cloud tops are starting to cool again and it does look to finally be on the move slowly... Grand Bahama no longer in the clear of the eye but feeling the southern eyewall now
ForsythSnow
Moderator
I think this was all on coordination with the ERC. It should start to stabilize but I can't see it going back to a cat 5 at all or a strong 4.
Henry2326
Member
12z HWRF landfall Charleston.....
The HWRF has been behind the curve it seems. This 12Z run is actually the furthest east of any when off FL/GA. So, this joins the consensus of being further east at 12Z when down there. Things continue to look better for FL/GA. But still watching. I expect the HWRF to keep trending east.
Downeastnc
Member
Timing will be critical as currently modeled, models take him from where he is now to off of Cape Canaveral in 36-42 hrs, this long drifting movement means by the time he gets up off SC/NC he is starting to move more east, the quicker he gets up the coast the farther north he gets before he turns more east....so whether that's off the coast or after he hits SC/NC is probably only the difference of say 6-12 hrs on most model runs....if you delay the east turn on the current model runs 6-12 hrs he hits SC/NC around the border and goes well inland over NC...by the same token if he sits down there a extra 12 hrs or so he will end up more SE off the coast....
The 12Z Euro was initialized further east to reflect on it being east of earlier runs’ projections at Grand Bahama Island. As a result, it’s 36 hour position is further EAST than the last two runs. So, good news to start anyway.
***Corrected*** Dang auto correct
***Corrected*** Dang auto correct
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