Is everything going "according to plan?" Seems like it is no longer stalled, inching NW on the IR sat
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Tropical Hurricane Dorian
- Thread starter Metwannabe
- Start date
A little more ridging over the top to the north at 24hr vs yesterdays 12z run (euro)
Snowflowxxl
Member
Everything seems East, feels like we probably dodged a bullet here. Still need to pay attention regradless.
Cary_Snow95
Member
Euro has the wind field noticeable bigger on the 12z
Things are going better than the plan for FL/GA as of now imo.
Well at hour 48, euro looks even closer to the coast..not a huge jump west, and off shore, but it does look a little west.
does it start turning NE after hr 48? or N?12Z Euro hour 60 is furthest east of last 4 runs.
yup....nevermind..lol it moves like NNE from hour 48 to 7212Z Euro hour 60 is furthest east of last 4 runs.
Storm5
Member
Omgd , it’s east it’s west 
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Omgd , it’s east it’s west
It has been east at every forecast point I’ve seen vs the same time interval every 6 hours per my provider’s maps. I think it is because of the further east starting point. Good news!
EURO
Looks like ends up almost identical spot on the OBX...
BHS1975
Member
Kicker is faster so it turns sharper.
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So to recap slightly west at 48, east at 72 the same or slightly east at 96
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Just need a quicker recurve to spare the OBX. But yeah, it was good to see a tick east.
The 12Z Euro at every 6 hours while off FL/GA/SC is further off the coast than the three prior 6 hourly runs. But when it gets to the 96 hour point on the NC coast, it does get close to the 0Z run’s position. A very encouraging run for FL/GA to CHS.
It took a lot for me to keep my mouth shut and not take the opportunity to explain the difference between ensembles and models ??
