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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

IMO I don’t think Dorian will not have as sharp a North turn. As it starts to stall the erosion of cooler water may and is weakening the storm over the top as Levi mentioned. Global models and several mesoscale models probably aren’t picking this up considerably. Still not saying It will have a landfall into Florida, However, there is still some considerable evidence that the storm won't be as sharply north compared to other models.
 
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I think the eye briefly hits someone in Carolinas. Between myrtle beach and hatteres seems like the most likely spot for a brief landfall


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Ollie Williams said:
IMO I don’t think Dorian will not have as sharp a NW turn. As it starts to stall the erosion of cooler water may and is weakening the storm over the top as Levi mentioned. Global models and several mesoscale models probably aren’t picking this up consideration.
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Yeah, although I’m genuinely encouraged from a risk to FL/GA standpoint that he hasn’t made it as far west as western Grand Bahama Island yet, we still do have to make sure that significant enough weakening to bring the mean steering level down enough to impart a more westerly to NW track into FL rather than NNW doesn’t occur. The good news is that the HWRF has come quite a bit further east.
 
The track is still way to close for comfort. Looks like it is a major right along the Florida coast, and the NHC has it as a hurricane over the OBX now. Dorian is still moving west, and I think any small deviation or error with the models could still mean Dorian makes landfall somewhere as a major hurricane, and could make landfall somewhere else in Florida to NC.
 
It looks like to me that he’s drifting ever so slowly to the NW now. But that’s only a drift. And if that’s true, I still say that’s better from a FL/GA risk standpoint than drifting west toward the western end of Grand Bahama.
 
Warning NC focused post if these bother you skip it....apparently some folks dont like us NC folks focusing on a hurricane that might hit us. Cross posted on AMWX so some of you may have already seen it.


For folks west of I-95 this needs to at least come in at ILM I would think moving NNE or at least NE....all the models have a wind max on the west side under the heavy rain shield so usually on these tracks there is a inland area that see's a wind max that is usually more violent downdraft type winds, so the sustained winds might only be 20--25 but you get the big rolling gust well into the 50-70 range....

The GFS has up to 75knt winds at 925 MB which wont be that high up over a lot of central and eastern NC so gust to 50-70 at the surface is reasonable even as far inland as the Triangle on the GFS track...the GFS is also the weakest with the storm pressure wise.

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accu35 said:
My wife's home town is Savannah Georgia, I hope they aren't to bad affected with this storm. Such a beautiful place
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My niece lives in Savannah, going to probably get at least moderate TS conditions there...most models keep the winds there under hurricane force gust though, I imagine surge will be a issue though.
 
Downeastnc said:
Warning NC focused post if these bother you skip it....apparently some folks dont like us NC folks focusing on a hurricane that might hit us. Cross posted on AMWX so some of you may have already seen it.


For folks west of I-95 this needs to at least come in at ILM I would think moving NNE or at least NE....all the models have a wind max on the west side under the heavy rain shield so usually on these tracks there is a inland area that see's a wind max that is usually more violent downdraft type winds, so the sustained winds might only be 20--25 but you get the big rolling gust well into the 50-70 range....

The GFS has up to 75knt winds at 925 MB which wont be that high up over a lot of central and eastern NC so gust to 50-70 at the surface is reasonable even as far inland as the Triangle on the GFS track...the GFS is also the weakest with the storm pressure wise.

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Hard to tell with the NHC track where it could make landfall in NC, but it looks like they have it hitting the OBX at least. Do the models have it hitting other places in NC?
 
Icon 12z.....slightly slower. Moved closer to land through SC/NC. Very close to landfall at the SC/NC line with definite landfall in NC.
 
GFS is adamant with modeling Dorian moving NW starting at 12z this morning and it still drifting ever so slightly due west.

goes16_ir_05L_201909021527.jpgdownload.png
 
Although GFS has east shift, traded it for decreasing pressure as it moves north.
Running faster than both Euro and NHC...
 
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Sleet City USA said:
Considerable NE jump on the GFS
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Ridge is weaker. But from my post above I don't think its correct. Dorian has already tracked SW of where GFS is modeling it.

I think UK/Euro blend is way to go...Euro has struggled but it's the Euro.

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Henry2326 said:
Icon 12z.....slightly slower. Moved closer to land through SC/NC. Very close to landfall at the SC/NC line with definite landfall in NC.
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Downeastnc said:
ICON has hurricane conditions pretty up the FL/GA/SC coast to ILM then inland over eastern NC.....
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I don't think the NC coast avoids landfall. It is looking more and more likely Dorian will hit somewhere in NC.
 
The bigger east shift initially closed up a bit as it approached NC, still east of 6z but not by enough to drastically change the effects

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Brick Tamland said:
I don't think the NC coast avoids landfall. It is looking more and more likely Dorian will hit somewhere in NC.
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I wont say that yet, however it wont miss by enough to prevent the south beaches and the OBX from getting at least strong TS conditions and its very likely they get Cat 1/2 hurricane conditions....for inland folks its a bit messy, unless the models shift 50-75 miles further east than what they average right now on most global's most of the IBX also stand a good shot at hurricane conditions. For me much less you Triangle guys its gotta at least track right on the coast if not inland some to get good winds....

Its also going to have a lot to do with the structure of the storm, is it weakening or strengthening, how big is the wind field, how tight is the gradient packed on the NW side etc.....all that is just to hard to nail down yet....
 
TWC publishing that Grand Bahama Airport under 5 feet of water.....
Also reporting that its moving WNW at 1 mph.
 
Rgem bumped east as well. So far not a bad start keeping the worst of the conditions just off of the Fl coast

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If the Ukie has this right its a bad hit that angle will bad for surge on the Pamlico, good thing its moving goes from ILM to Rodanthe in 12 hrs....also 942 is awful low...

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That slight shift away from 06z to 12z GFS results in total rainfall cut from 3.7 inches to 1.7 inches at RDU. Every mile is going to matter for this western edge.
 
Downeastnc said:
If the Ukie has this right its a bad hit that angle will bad for surge on the Pamlico, good thing its moving goes from ILM to Rodanthe in 12 hrs....also 942 is awful low...

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That's the 0z run but from what I can tell the 12z looked to be hair west. The maps I have our very crude, need to wait until 12:45pm for better maps.
 
This look reminds me of michael 66F171F1-C141-4475-9B91-86FFD218369D.jpegjust tad bit anyways, little bit of low level drying, strong northernly low level jet which could easily mix down to the surface, bit of a Scorpions tail with it3D223F9F-14FD-48B0-83C6-C978474FEB4C.jpegD6F9AA12-8956-4DD7-9069-F0FE4867F883.jpeg
 
accu35 said:
My wife's home town is Savannah Georgia, I hope they aren't to bad affected with this storm. Such a beautiful place
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I don't think it will be that bad. If the current strong model consensus pretty much verifies, it should be a much less harsh hit than Matthew was in 2016, which gave SAV cat 1 hurricane force winds. It might be like TS Hermine of 2016 or the similarly well offshore Floyd of 1999. I expect moderate TS conditions as of now in and around the city, which is 15 miles inland.
 
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Ethan80963 said:
Don’t know how reliable it is but JMA way far west vs previous runView attachment 22879
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The JMA is downright awful. I'd heavily discount this.

It looks like to me that the main 12Z model consensus has shifted eastward, which is good news. I think that's because of his not making it far west at Grand Bahama Island as he was supposed to by now. Hopefully this trend will continue. I'm breathing even a bit easier for FL/GA for a major hit (though not the all clear yet and they'll still get at least TS force winds) and I'm starting to feel a bit better even up to CHS. Keep the positive vibes!
 
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