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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

The 12z Euro run was more or less on top of the 12z run from yesterday and as discussed above, a tick east of 0z run.

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SD said:
So to recap slightly west at 48, east at 72 the same or slightly east at 96

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No, it is further east at just about all points through 72 vs the prior 3 runs and about the same at hour 96 vs the 0Z run’s 108. My comparisons of today’s 12Z weren’t against the 12Z of yesterday.
 
GaWx said:
The HWRF has been behind the curve it seems. This 12Z run is actually the furthest east of any when off FL/GA. So, this joins the consensus of being further east at 12Z when down there. Things continue to look better for FL/GA. But still watching. I expect the HWRF to keep trending east.
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Its bwen holding....remember it was the only one many times along this journey.....when it changes, I will come along.
 
F-5 said:
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It looks to me like he’s back from the slow WNW or NW drift to hardly moving at all. Any other opinions?
 
When do the short range models start to come into play and become helpful?
 
At this point I’m done model watching with this one. We know the steering and the expected track. So what we watch for is wobbles. Because I really think the track is set.


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SUMMARY OF 300 PM EDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.8N 78.4W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES
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Jessy89 said:
At this point I’m done model watching with this one. We know the steering and the expected track. So what we watch for is wobbles. Because I really think the track is set.


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Agreed. The only question is if it clips HAT. I am thinking just offshore of HAT.
 
All students must be evacuated from the UNC Wilmington campus by 5:00 p.m. on Tuesday, according to a campus email issued to faculty, staff and students.
 
SUMMARY OF 400 PM EDT...2000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.8N 78.4W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Blake
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